Reducing tropospheric ozone with methane controls:

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Presentation transcript:

Reducing tropospheric ozone with methane controls: Impact on Arctic radiative forcing Arlene M. Fiore (arlene.fiore@noaa.gov) Acknowledgments: Larry Horowitz, Dan Schwarzkopf (NOAA/GFDL) Jason West, Vaishali Naik (Princeton University) Ellen Baum, Joe Chaisson (Clean Air Task Force) Funding from Luce Foundation via Clean Air Task Force Arctic Workshop at NASA GISS, January 8, 2006

Projected changes in tropospheric O3 burden by 2030 Change in 25-model mean from 2000 to 2030 Tg O3 CLE MFR SRES A2 Multi-model mean 2000 burden is 344±39 Tg Stevenson et al., JGR, 2006

CLE scenario: Changes in emissions and O3 burden Anthropogenic emission changes in CLE (2030-2005): CH4 +29% (+96 Tg CH4 yr-1) NOx +19% (+5.3 Tg N yr-1) CO -10% (-44 Tg CO yr-1) VOC +3% (+3 Tg C yr-1) 2005 to 2030 transient simulations in MOZART-2 CTM [Horowitz et al., 2003] 2000-2004 NCEP meteorology; 1.9°x1.9°; 28 vertical levels +1DU increase in Arctic ANNUAL MEAN TROPOSPHERIC O3 COLUMNS (DU) CLE 2030 – CLE 2005 DU DU CLE 2005 31 DU 340 Tg O3 global burden increase from 2005 to 2030: +1.6 DU +18 Tg O3

Arctic O3 columns highest in winter and spring; Radiative forcing largest spring and summer CLE 2030 TROPOSPHERIC OZONE COLUMNS (DU) DJF MAM JJA SON 35 DU 36 DU 32 DU 33 DU OZONE RADIATIVE FORCING (mW m-2) 2005 TO 2030 UNDER CLE SCENARIO Adjusted forcing calculated with GFDL radiative transfer model Neg values in djf max = -7.6; avg of all white space = -2.2 DJF MAM JJA SON +4 mW m-2 +27 mW m-2 +43 mW m-2 +15 mW m-2

Apply methane controls relative to CLE baseline scenario Anthropogenic CH4 Emissions (Tg yr-1) Control scenarios reduce 2030 emissions relative to CLE by: A) -75 Tg (18%) -125 Tg (29%) -180 Tg (42%) Look first at global climate impacts + 2030 simulation with CH4 set to 700 ppb pre-industrial level

Methane controls reduce global radiative forcing SCENARIO B – CLE BASE 2030 mW m-2 TROPOSPHERIC OZONE FORCING CHANGE IN TROPOSPHERIC O3 DU Radiative Forcing in 2030 relative to CLE 2030 OZONE METHANE W m-2 -0.08 -0.16 -0.24 -0.75 A B C Zero Anth. CH4 Methane control scenario

Methane Controls: Impact on Arctic radiative forcing SCENARIO B ZERO ANTHROP. CH4 MAM -19 mW m-2 -86 mW m-2 JJA -21 mW m-2 -97 mW m-2 -40 -30 -20 -10 -5 -150 -125 -100 -75 -50 -25 mW m-2

TF HTAP multi-model assessment: The Arctic as a receptor region? Co-Chairs: Terry Keating (U.S. EPA), Andre Zuber (EC) www.htap.org Intercontinental Source-Receptor Regions 20% decreases in anthrop. emissions in HTAP regions: NOx, CO, NMVOC aerosols and precursors mercury POPs Also 20% decrease in global CH4 concentration http://aqm.jrc.it/HTAP ~ 13 modeling groups have already delivered results for Experiment 1 Opportunity to assess impact of several species from major NH source regions on the Arctic in a consistent way across models

Summary: Impact of methane controls on Arctic radiative forcing Annual mean changes in the Arctic from 2005 to 2030 TROPOSPHERIC OZONE COLUMN (DU) OZONE RADIATIVE FORCING (mW m-2) Additional decrease in radiative forcing from lower CH4 abundances A B C Zero Anth. CH4 CLE INCREASING METHANE CONTROL 