Predicting the Probability of Geospace Events Based on Observations of Solar Active-Region Free Magnetic Energy Dusan Odstrcil1,2 and David Falconer3,4.

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Presentation transcript:

Predicting the Probability of Geospace Events Based on Observations of Solar Active-Region Free Magnetic Energy Dusan Odstrcil1,2 and David Falconer3,4 1George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, 2NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD 3University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL, 4NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL MURI/NADIR Workshop Boulder, CO October 25-26, 2011

Lead Times in Forecasting Observation of heliospheric disturbances at L1 Lead time: ~30-50 min Observation of coronal eruptions Lead time: ~1-3 days Observation of solar active regions Lead time: ~3-5 days

Photospheric Magnetic Field CME Probabilistic Model 2006-12-09 2006-12-10 2006-12-11 2006-12-12 2006-12-13 2006-12-09 CAR=E26S10 PCME = 16% RCME = 470 VCME = slow 2006-12-10 CAR=E13S10 PCME = 15% RCME = 490 VCME = slow 2006-12-11 CAR=E00S10 PCME = 13% RCME = 510 VCME = slow 2006-12-12 CAR=W13S10 PCME = 17% RCME = 520 VCME = slow 2006-12-13 CAR=W26S10 PCME = 15% RCME = 500 VCME = slow

CME Probabilistic Model CME Initial Parameters 2006-12-09 CAR=E40S10 PCME = 16% RCME = 470 Run 1 V=1000 km/s R = 200 Run 2 V=1000 km/s R = 400 Run 3 V=1000 km/s R = 600 Run 4 V=1500 km/s R = 200 Run 5 V=1500 km/s R = 400 Run 6 V=1500 km/s R = 600 Run 7 V=2000 km/s R = 200 Run 8 V=2000 km/s R = 400 Run 9 V=2000 km/s R = 600

CME Initial Parameters ICME Propagation

ICME Propagation Ensemble Study RUN 1: V = 1000 km/s, R = 200 RUN 2: V = 1000 km/s, R = 400 RUN 3: V = 1000 km/s, R = 600 RUN 4: V = 1500 km/s, R = 200 RUN 5: V = 1500 km/s, R = 400 RUN 6: V = 1500 km/s, R = 600 RUN 7: V = 2000 km/s, R = 200 RUN 8: V = 2000 km/s, R = 400 RUN 9: V = 2000 km/s, R = 600

“External” Bz Periods – Shock Compression Shock to north, positive IMF: + Shock to north, negative IMF: - Shock to south, positive IMF: - Shock to south, negative IMF: +

“External” Bz Periods – ICME Draping Above ICME center, positive IMF: - + Above ICME center, negative IMF: + - Below ICME center, positive IMF: + - Below ICME center, negative IMF: - +

Flux-Rope-Like Structure – Hydrodynamic

Flux-Rope-Like Structure – With 2D Magnetic Field

Configuration of Magnetic Flux-Ropes (Bothmer and Schwenn, 1998) Magnetic cloud properties can be related to observed filament structure

Flux-Rope at Earth Magnetic flux rope is described by analytic force-free (Lundquist) model. Temporal profiles within the traced ejecta are replaced by that solution.

Configuration of Magnetic Flux-Ropes (Yurchyshyn, 2006) For about 60% of events the halo elongations and the MC orientation correspond the local tilt of the HCS For majority of solar ejecta (80%), the underlying erupting flux rope at 1 AU aligns itself with the HCS

2005-05-13 Halo CME Event

AR 10759 – Magnetic Eruption Probability

AR 10759 – Maximum CME Speed and Width

CME Initial Parameters ICME Propagation

CME Initial Parameters ICME Propagation

Prediction of the Probability of the Bz Event Shock strength varies slightly in time due to its large angular extension Bz impact is narrower and it is stronger at the flux-rope axis

Conclusions Predicting CME impact before magnetic eruption happens (increasing lead time from 1-3 days to 3-5 days) is challenging, crude estimations might be possible, mostly for all-clear conditions. “Cone” model is a hydrodynamic ejecta and cannot predict Bz events. Inclusion of analytic profiles is the way for event-by-event predictions. Inclusion of analytic profiles of the magnetic structure helps to narrow the spatial extent of the strongest impact. More work is needed to calibrate empirical and statistical relationships on onset time, speed, and width. More work is needed to develop the “hybrid” modeling of Bz events at Earth and calibrate the flux-rope parameters especially at flanks.