Analysis of winning and losing the bronze medal in International Judo Competitions and the consistency with the IJF ranking list. 29/03/2017 Geert Claes

How to get a bronze medal in judo ? Only the contestants who reached the quarter final From losing the quarter final : loser’s pool or ‘repechage’ Finally : contest against the loser of the opposite semi-final Winner of this fight wins the bronze 29/03/2017 Geert Claes

Losing before quarter final = no repechage Losers quarter final Loser semi final Loser semi final 29/03/2017 Geert Claes

Losers quarter final = repechage Loser semi final Loser semi final 29/03/2017 Geert Claes

Importance of a Ranking List Evidenced based information to support the development of a players career (Reid et al.2014) Indication for selection of a lower ranked judoka to increase the probability of a medal (Krumer, 2017) 50 % of the points for results looking back 13 – 24 mths. World Ranking List represents the most accurate prediction of Olympic Result (Lascau & Rosu, 2013). Contradicted by Franchini, 2015 29/03/2017 Geert Claes

The IJF Ranking List Is inspired by the ATP Tennis Tour (Franchini & Julio 2015). Points for results of the previous 12 mths 50 % of the points for results looking back 13 – 24 mths. An athlete can be seeded (protected) in the draw 29/03/2017 Geert Claes

Draw Grand Slam Tokyo with the seeded players ‘in yellow’ 29/03/2017 Geert Claes

Approach for this work : Analysis of the WRL (IJF) to find the main determining factors to obtain the bronze Analysis of 2.821 bronze medal fights for the period 2013- 2015 (by weight,gender) Future : 2016 to add  whole Olympic Cycle = reference period for 2017-2020 Use of SPSS i.s.o Excel 29/03/2017 Geert Claes

Studies about influencfing factors of winning and losing in judo : 29/03/2017 Geert Claes

1. Winner and loser effect : Documented in a large number of animal studies (Whitehouse, 1997 – Altmann & Alberts, 2015). Sports related : mainly studies about the correlations amongs factors of winning/losing. Few studies in human competitions : ‘hot hand fallacy” for many years not evidenced but recently mixed evidence (Page & Coates, 2017) 29/03/2017 Geert Claes

1. Winner and loser effect : 29/03/2017 Geert Claes

1. Winner and loser effect : Referencing period : loser semi final his last fight before the bronze medal fight was always a loss – the last fight of the opponent is always a win . Total 2.821 fights : loser semi final wins in 54,70 % of the fights the bronze. This is opposite to the ‘winner effect’, even when comparing the different weight categories. 29/03/2017 Geert Claes

1. Winner and loser effect : 29/03/2017 Geert Claes

2.Colour of judogi : In his work ‘Theory of Colours’ von Goethe (von Goethe, 1810) described the influence of colors on emotional experience. Matsumoto et al, 2007 : males but not females have a winning bias, wearing a blue judogi Confirmed by Julio et al, 2015 Critised by Dijkstra & Preenen (2008) because top seeded athletes were given blue 29/03/2017 Geert Claes

2.Colour of judogi : Elliot, 2015 : most of the studies are related to red colour; mainly team sports (Barton & Hill, 2005, Ilie et al, 2008,Attrill et al, 2008, Allan & Jones, 2014). Only a minor number about other colors ex. Black and white (Caldwell & Burger, 2011). Elliot, 2015 : review of theoretical and empirical work of colours and psychological fuctioning : existing theoretical / empirical work is at early stage of development with a number of weaknesses. 29/03/2017 Geert Claes

2.Colour of judogi : 29/03/2017 Geert Claes

2.Colour of judogi : For the referencing period (loser semi final is always blue) : total fights 2.821 Blue won 54,70 %; this is in line with the ‘blue effect’ but in those cases the highest ranked judoka won 69,55 % (this confirms the study of Dijkstra). 29/03/2017 Geert Claes

3.Home advantage : Julio (Julio et al. 2013) concluded that there is home advantage. Also Krumer (Krumer 2017) evidenced that home advantage increases the probability of winning a fight for both genders. For the referencing period these statistics are not yet made. However, it’s foreseen to do so and to see the possible influence of winning the bronze. 29/03/2017 Geert Claes

4.Consistancy : bronze medal & ranking list : Hypothesid that the bronze medal winner : Is not the highest ranked judoka Is always the highest ranked judoka. The study of Claes, 2016 evidenced that for IJF in total 69,55 % (1.962 times on a total of 2.821) the bronze medal is won by the highest ranked athlete. 29/03/2017 Geert Claes

4.Consistancy:bronze & ranking list 29/03/2017 Geert Claes

Purpose of the study – future : Clear statistical vieuw about ‘who wins bronze’ Take into consideration the age of the athlete (governing bodies : actual age vs future medal chance) Ranking list end of previous year or end of actual year (as used in the actual figures 2013-2015) ? Next Olympic Cycle (Tokyo 2020) : Changes fighting time of the men (5 to 4 min) Changes in the value of tournaments (ranking points) Changes in fighting rules = influence compared with the referencing period ? 29/03/2017 Geert Claes

Cited works : 29/03/2017 Geert Claes Claes, G. (2016). The winner and loser effect applied on the bronze medal fight in judo. Cambridge. Dijkstra, P. D. (2012). Winner effect’without winning: Unresolved social conflicts increase the probability of winning a subsequent contest in a cichlid fish. Physiology & Behavior, 105(2), 489-492. Elliot, A. (2015). Color and psychological functioning : a review of theoretical and empirical work. Frontiers in Psychology, 368(6). Franchini, E., & Ferreira Julio, U. (2015). The Judo WOrld Ranking List and the Performances in the 2012 London Olympics. Asian Journal of Sports Medicine, 6(3). Franz, M., McLean, R., Tung, J., Altmann, J., & Alberts, S. (2015). Self-organising dominance hierarchies in a wild primate population. Proceedins of the Royal Society Series. Julio Ferreira, U., Goncalves Panissa, V., Miarka, B., Takito, M., & Franchini, E. (2013). Home advantage in judo : A study of the world ranking list. Journal of Sports Sciences, 212-218. Krumer, A. (2017). On Winning Probabilities, Weight Categories, and Home Advantage in Professional Judo. Journal of Sports Economics, 77-96. Lascau, D., & Rosu, D. (2013). Study regarding the prediction of medal winning in Olympic Games judo competition. Journal of Physical Education and Sport, 386-390. Matsumoto, D., Konno, J., Hata, S., & Takeuchi, M. (2007). Blue Judogis may Bias Competition Outcomes. Research Journal of Budo, 39, 1-7. Page , L., & Coates, J. (2017). Winner and loser effects in human competitions. Evidence from equally matched tennis players. Evolution and Human Behaviour. Reid, M., Morgan, S., Churchill , T., & Bane, M. (2014). Rankings in professional men's tennis : a rich but underutilized source of information. Journal of SPorts Science, 986-992. von Goethe, J. (1810). Zur Farbenlehre. Germany. Whitehouse, M. (1997). Experience influences male-male contests in the spider Argyrodees antipodiana (Theridiidae : Araneae). Animal Behaviour(53), 913 - 923. 29/03/2017 Geert Claes