The Changing Face of the Texas Labor Market Labor Market & Career Information (LMCI) Texas Workforce Commission richard.froeschle@twc.state.tx.us (512) 936-3105

Harry Truman is purported to have said, All my economists say, “on the one, or on the other hand”…what I really need is a one-handed economist.

Themes of the day The Texas economy is stronger than the U.S. but subject to the same challenges. There are mixed economic signals Globalization is influencing job creation; type and number Demographic shifts are changing the face of the Texas labor market – where we live, what we look like Nobody lives in Texas: every region is a different economy Recent Texas job growth has been largely fueled by: population growth and the oil & gas cluster. But there has been diversity Occupational demand is more bifurcated. Skill sets over job titles The match between labor market demand and education outputs is less than perfect At the end of the day, getting a job is all about balancing Will and Skill

Gleaning Wisdom from Data Observations The Japanese eat LESS red meat and drink less red wine than do Americans or the British—and they have a much lower incidence of heart attacks. The Italians eat MORE red meat and drink much more red wine than do Americans or the British--and yet they too have a lower incidence of heart attacks. Conclusion: Go ahead and eat whatever you want. It’s pretty clear that speaking English is what kills you.

The economy is getting better! TX Unemployment rate falling – 8.1% Jan ‘11 to 6.6% Oct ‘12 Broad sector job growth – 10 of 11 sectors growing 24 straight months of US job growth Spending is up, consumers lowering debt burden Consumer confidence rising – highest since recession Housing activity on the rise, multi-family up, rents rising House prices starting to increase UI initial claims are down Pent up demand: Delayed TX household formation Cheap money: Interest rates remain rock bottom Pent up demand: Excess bank reserves, corporate cash, consumers all have lots of cash

The economy is still bad … or getting worse! Insufficient U.S. demand (low GDP growth) Disposable personal income flat, real compensation down Student loan debt tops $1 trillion Anemic post recession job growth. Manufacturing slowing, exports slowing & public sector still reeling Energy/gas price volatility creates winners and losers Tight lending standards & terms Oil & Gas drilling slowing – new permits slowing Net worth down $9.4 trillion from peak Rising healthcare costs, uncertainties of “ObamaCare” No confidence in political system plus pending “fiscal cliff” *European recession plus sovereign debt/bank crisis *Slowing global demand, Japanese recession, slow Chinese GDP growth

Does the Global Economic Slowdown Matter Does the Global Economic Slowdown Matter? Percent of 2011 Revenue Outside U.S. YUM Brands 70% Wal-Mart 26% IBM 64% Boeing 41% Intel 84% General Electric 54% Bank of America 20% Ford 51% Dow Chemical 67% Microsoft 46% Apple Inc. 61% JNJ 56% Caterpillar 64% Dell 48% ExxonMobil 45% McDonalds 66% Amazon 45% General Motors 46% Nike 50% Hewlett Packard 65%

Change of the Total Population by County, 2000 to 2010 79 counties lost population over the decade 175 counties gained population while 79 lost population over the decade. Source: Texas State Data Center

Texas becomes more Hispanic

Tough Competition: Generational Employment in Texas 2000 - 2010

How many Millenials does it take to screw in a light bulb? 1. One to the instructions 2. One to post the instructions on the wall of their page 3. One to post the video of their work showing collaboration One Baby Boomer to tell them what a terrific, wonderful, spectacular job they did with the light bulb

Texas Labor Market: Where we are Where we’ve been Where we’re going Why we care

Emerging Patterns in Quits and Layoffs

Texas Industry Growth October 2011-12 YOY INDUSTRY TITLE Oct 2012 Oct 2011 ABS CHG PER CHG Total Nonagricultural 10,883,200 10,605,800 277,400 2.6% Goods-Producing 1,713,900 1,643,200 70,700 4.3% Service-Providing 9,169,300 8,962,600 206,700 2.3% Leisure and Hospitality 1,108,600 1,056,800 51,800 4.9% Trade, Transportation, Utilities 2,165,700 2,117,900 47,800 Construction 603,400 556,500 46,900 8.4% Education & Health Services 1,486,900 1,443,800 43,100 3.0% Professional/Business Services 1,389,900 1,355,100 34,800 Financial Activities 653,500 639,200 14,300 2.2% Manufacturing 853,800 840,900 12,900 1.5% Mining and Logging 256,700 245,800 10,900 4.4% Other Services 385,800 375,900 9,900 Government 1,787,000 1,778,600 8,400 0.5% Information 191,900 195,300 -3,400 -1.7%

Texas MSA October Urates 2012 2011 Midland 3.3 4.1 San Antonio 6.0 7.2 Odessa 3.9 5.2 Ft Worth-Arlington 6.1 7.4 Amarillo 4.3 D/FW-Arlington CSA 6.2 7.5 San Angelo 4.8 Houston-Sugar Land 7.7 Abilene 4.9 Texas 6.3 7.6 Lubbock 5.9 Laredo Austin-Round Rock 5.3 6.6 Sherman-Denison 6.5 8.0 College Station-Bryan Tyler 8.2 Victoria 6.4 Killeen-Temple 7.0 8.1 Longview 5.6 6.7 United States 8.5 Corpus Christi 5.8 7.3 El Paso 8.7 10.1 Wichita Falls 6.8 Beaumont-Pt Arthur 9.8 10.5 Texarkana Brville-Harlingen 11.3 Waco McAllen-Edinburg 11.2

Regional Job Growth Rates Big Texas metro areas employment – 2nd Quarter to 2nd Quarter 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Austin-Round Rock +3.9% +5.1% +2.4% -2.8% +1.4% +3.8% +3.3% Beaumont-Port Arthur +3.0% +2.9% -0.01% -3.8% -0.7% +1.5% Brownsville-Harlingen +4.0% +2.0% +1.2% -1.5% +1.8% +2.2% Corpus Christi +0.9% +3.1% -2.9% +0.01% +1.0% +2.5% Dallas-Fort Worth -4.4% -0.2% +2.7% El Paso +1.7% +2.6% -2.1% +2.1% Houston-Sugar Land +3.5% +5.0% -2.3% -0.4% +3.6% McAllen-Edinburg +2.8% -0.8% +2.3% +1.1% San Antonio +4.3% -1.9% Victoria +1.9% +0.7% -4.9% 0.0% Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, Texas Workforce Commission, 2nd Quarter 2012 data is preliminary

Texas Industry Employment Change 2010-12 QTR2/2012 Abs CHG Per CHG Administrative and Support Services 674,162 71,963 12.0% Food Services and Drinking Places 874,556 69,156 8.6% Professional, Scientific & Technical Srvcs 621,377 53,360 9.4% Support Activities for Mining 161,926 50,582 45.4% Ambulatory Health Care Services 629,222 42,887 7.3% Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods 307,082 27,687 9.9% Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing 132,538 21,565 19.4% Truck Transportation 126,334 20,413 19.3% Machinery Manufacturing 104,062 20,052 23.9% Oil and Gas Extraction 95,708 14,700 18.1% Heavy & Civil Engineering Construction 154,567 13,452 9.5% Credit Intermediation Activities 249,728 12,439 5.2% Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 153,729 12,247 8.7% General Merchandise Stores 268,809 10,891 4.2% Hospitals 412,846 10,433 2.6%

IHS Global Texas Industry Employment Change 2011-2014 NAICS NAICS Description 43% 2014 ABS CHG 561 Administrative & Support Services 743,868 102,565 541 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 662,750 75,209 621 Ambulatory Health Care Services 663,942 61,190 722 Food Services and Drinking Places 880,489 53,561 238 Specialty Trade Contractors 356,766 38,161 622 Hospitals 416,173 33,036 611 Educational Services 1,140,501 28,171 423 Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods 311,990 20,109 336 Transportation Equipment Manufacturing 104,640 16,913 333 Machinery Manufacturing 111,834 16,907 623 Nursing and Residential Care Facilities 189,695 16,420 236 Construction of Buildings 145,874 15,257 332 Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing 137,160 15,219 237 Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction 128,571 13,433 425 B2B Wholesale Electronic Markets 79,098 13,018

Professional, Scientific & Technical Services in Texas 2010-2012 NAICS Industry 2010 2012 ABS CHG 541 Professional and Technical Services 568,028 620,449 52,421 5415 Computer Systems Design Services 100,219 121,309 21,090 5416 Management & Tech Consulting Svc 83,962 98,599 14,637 5413 Architectural & Engineering Services 137,024 146,711 9,687 5412 Accounting & Bookkeeping Services 65,546 69,975 4,429 5411 Legal Services 78,151 80,252 2,101 5419 Other Professional & Tech Services 47,738 49,102 1,364 5414 Specialized Design Services 7,095 7,762 667 5418 Advertising & Public Relations Srvcs 24,000 23,650 -350 5417 Scientific Research & Develop Srvcs 24,290 23,090 -1,200

Estimated Occupational Staffing Pattern for Professional & Technical Services % Education Preferred Accountants and Auditors 5.2 Bachelor's degree Office Clerks, General 3.9 Short-term OJT Lawyers 3.5 First professional Secretaries, Ex. Legal/Medical 3.3 Moderate OJT Computer Software Engineers, Apps 2.8 Computer Systems Analysts Bookkeeping, Accounting & Audit Clerks Computer Support Specialists 2.5 Associate degree Civil Engineers 2.4 Paralegals and Legal Assistants Management Analysts 2.3 Bachelor's plus exp Computer Software Engineers, Systems 2.1 Executive Secretaries & Admin Assists Related work experience Legal Secretaries Computer Programmers 2.0

Texas Occupations Adding the Most Jobs Occupational growth projections - 2010-2020 Annual Average Wage 2011 $18,188 $51,847 $17,636 $24,165 $67,581 $19,069 $28,671 $19,155 $19,919 $30,387

Texas Jobs with Most Annual Average Openings Occupational growth projections - 2010-2020 Wage 2011 $24,165 $19,155 $19,069 $18,188 $51,847 $28,671 $30,387 $67,581 $19,052 $24,316

Where The Job Postings Are Located? Metro Area Postings Dallas-Fort Worth 176,506 Odessa 7,166 Houston-Sugar Land 140,273 Waco 6,996 San Antonio 66,915 Amarillo 5,648 Austin-Round Rock 60,547 Beaumont 5,515 El Paso 14,226 College Station 5,356 Corpus Christi 11,444 Brownsville-Harlingen 4,058 Lubbock 8,477 Abilene 3,867 McAllen-Edinburg-Mission 8,409 Laredo 3,492 Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood 8,181 Longview 2,955 Midland 8,005 San Angelo 2,824 Tyler 7,257 Wichita Falls 2,727 Based on Job Postings listed online for previous 90 days as Oct. 24, 2012, compiled by Wanted Analytics and the Conference Board for TWC

Help Wanted Job Listings for Texas Job Type Openings Preferred training/education 1. Registered Nurse h 30,420 Associate’s degree 2. Retail Salesperson h 20,024 Short On The Job training 3. Truck Driver (heavy/tractor trailer) h 19,027 4. Manager of Retail Workers h 17,947 Related Work Experience 5. Computer Systems Analyst h 14,794 Bachelor’s degree 6. Customer Service Rep 13,956 Moderate On Job Training 7. Computer Support Specialist h 12,048 8. Web Developer h 11,752 9. Manager of Food Prep Workers h 11,167 10. Accountant h 10,372 11. Network/Computer Systems Admin h 9,592 12. Secretary/Admin Assistant 9,492 NOTE: Arrows indicate occupation with greater or less than 5% change Source: Wanted Analytics for 90 day period from Dec. 14, 2012

Help Wanted Job Listings for Texas (continued) Job Type Openings Preferred training/education 13. Manager of Office/Admin Staff h8,917 Related Work Experience 14. Sales Rep (wholesale/manufacturing) 8,759 15. Computer Software Engineer h8,298 Bachelor’s degree 16. Industrial Engineer h8,089 17. Medical/Health Services Manager h8,000 18. Sales Manager h7,729 19. Maintenance / Repair Worker h6,978 Moderate On Job Training 20. Marketing Manager 6,751 21. Sales Rep (services) 6,389 22. Management Analyst 6,648 23. Manager of Production Workers h 6,278 24. Bookkeeper / Audit Clerk h5,792 25. Physical Therapist i5,695 Master’s degree Source: Wanted Analytics for 90 day period from Dec. 14, 2012

Help Wanted Job Listings Austin metro area Job Type Openings Preferred training/education 1. Registered Nurse h 2,294 Associate’s degree 2. Computer Software Engineer h 2,227 Bachelor’s degree 3. Web Developer h 2,179 4. Retail Salesperson h 1,952 Short Term On The Job training 5. Computer Support Specialist h 1,596 6. Customer Service Representative 1,580 Moderate On Job Training 7. Computer Network Administrator h 1,541 8. Computer Systems Analyst 1,522 9. Manager of Retail Sales Workers h 1,502 Related Work Experience 10. Manager of Food Prep Workers h 1,166 11. Truck Driver (heavy/tractor trailer) h 1,086 12. Marketing Manager i 1,028 13. Secretary / Administrative Assistant 1,017 14. Computer Programmer h 916 NOTE: Arrows indicate occupation with greater or less than 5% change Source: Wanted Analytics for 90 day period from Dec. 14, 2012

Help Wanted Job Listings Austin metro (cont.) Job Type Openings Preferred training/education 15. Supervisor Office Support Workers h 899 Related Work Experience 16. Software Quality Assurance Tester 851 Bachelor’s degree 17. Sales Rep (wholesale/manufactured) 779 18. Sales Manager h 770 19. Sales Rep (services) 758 20. Accountant h 721 21. Management Analyst 719 22. Computer Systems Architect h 660 23. Database Administrator h 641 24. Information Technology Project Manager 624 Associate’s degree 25. Medical/Health Services Manager h 601 26. Medical Secretary h 563 Moderate On Job training 27. Maintenance / Repair Worker h 550 Moderate On Job Training 28. Sales Rep (technical/scientific) Source: Wanted Analytics for 90 day period from Dec. 14, 2012

Highest Earning College Programs 2011 Detail View Bachelor’s Degree Graduate Major (TX) (50+) Grads Earnings Petroleum Engineering 315 $84,298 Chemical Engineering 402 $67,303 Ocean Engineering 63 $61,213 Mechanical Engineering 1,285 $57,200 Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration 5,590 $56,921 Mechanical Engineering Technicians 116 $54,165 Industrial Engineering 266 $52,468 Electrical, Electronics & Telecomm Engineering 991 $51,796 Industrial Production Technologies/Technicians 239 $51,645 Sales, Merchandising & Marketing Operations 253 $51,342 Electrical Engineering Technologies/Technicians 165 $50,596 Computer Engineering 227 $48,017 Construction Engineering Technologies 344 $47,381 Allied Health Diagnostic & Treatment Professions 337 $47,330 Civil Engineering 734 $47,256

Lowest Earning College Programs 2011 Detail View Bachelor’s Degree Graduate Major (TX) Grads Earnings Pastoral Counseling and Specialized Ministries 61 $13,383 Health/Medical Preparatory Programs 107 $16,949 Drama/Theatre Arts and Stagecraft 540 $18,555 Visual and Performing Arts, General 108 $18,854 Religious Education 151 $19,071 Rehabilitation and Therapeutic Professions 207 $19,738 Film/Video and Photographic Arts 131 $19,817 Anthropology 488 $20,492 Dance $20,548 Zoology/Animal Biology 81 $20,914 Fine and Studio Arts 1,433 $21,024 Microbiological Sciences and Immunology 139 $21,398 Foods, Nutrition, and Related Services $21,722 Ecology, Evolution & Population Biology 109 $21,788 Psychology, General 5,345 $21,800

Highest Earning Associate’s Degree Programs 2011 Associate’s Degree Graduate Major (TX) Grads Earnings Fire Protection 177 $61,280 Nuclear and Industrial Radiologic Technicians 23 $57,564 Physical Science Technologies/Technicians 474 $52,724 Quality Control and Safety Technicians 152 $50,872 Registered Nursing & Nursing Administration 5,822 $49,160 Electrical and Power Transmission Installers 32 $48,692 Mining and Petroleum Technologies/Technicians $45,644 Electromechanical and Instrumentation Techs 541 $44,968 Industrial Equipment Maintenance Technologies 19 Electrical/Electronics Maintenance Technology 71 $43,044 Industrial Production Technologies/Technicians 119 $41,700 Precision Metal Working 176 $41,676 Geography and Cartography 35 $37,876 Mechanical Engineering Technicians 26 $37,148 Dental Support Services and Allied Professions 319 $37,144

Structural Mismatch: 2011 Graduates Grads Earnings Multi-/Interdisciplinary Studies, Other 9,810 $30,112 Business Admin, Management & Operations 6,911 $41,216 Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration 5,590 $56,920 Psychology, General 5,345 $21,800 Biology, General 4,496 $21,812 Health and Physical Education/Fitness 3,719 $23,068 Accounting and Related Services 3,272 $35,356 Finance and Financial Management Services 2,915 $37,868 Criminal Justice and Corrections 2,864 $25,624 No CIP Code submitted (Private Colleges) 2,778 $29,972 Marketing 2,677 $32,080 Liberal Arts and Sciences, Humanities 2,615 $33,924 English Language and Literature, General 2,309 $23,048 History 2,278 $23,568 Political Science and Government 2,065 $25,268

Regional employers say they want… Good communications skills: Can you….. Explain what you’re doing (to co-worker or customer)? Explain what you need (from a co-worker or customer)? Ability to listen to instructions? 2. Technical knowledge (degrees needed for half of all job openings) Can you work with people who are of a different age, race, gender and education level than you? Can-do attitude / pleasant attitude (workers who are “engaged” in their work) Critical thinking skills (if given a sequence of events, can you determine what will probably happen next)

Giraffe Critical Thinking Quiz 1. How do you put a giraffe into a refrigerator? Answer: Open the refrigerator, put in the giraffe, and close the door. This tests whether you tend to do simple things in an overly complicated way. Anderson Consulting says 90% of Professionals tested got all questions wrong, but many preschoolers got several correct answers. This conclusively proves that most professionals do not have the brains of a four-year-old. 2. How do you put an elephant into a refrigerator? Answer: Open the refrigerator, take out the giraffe, put in the elephant, close the door. This tests your ability to understand the repercussions of your actions. 3. The Lion King is hosting an All Animal Meeting. All the animals attend - except one. Which animal does not attend? Answer: The Elephant. The elephant is in the refrigerator. You just put him in there, remember? This tests your memory. 4. You must cross a shallow river, but it is used by crocodiles and you do not have a boat. How do you manage it? Answer: You jump in the river and swim across. Pay attention! All the crocodiles are at the Meeting with the other animals. This tests if you learn quickly from your mistakes.

Getting a Job is a Balance between Skill & Will Workplace Skills Will Skills Distill

Skills Strong academics Distill Workplace Skills Will Skills Strong academics High School diploma Post secondary schooling Appropriate technical skills Distill

Workplace Basic Skills Communication skills Getting along with others Critical thinking Will Skills Distill

Distill On the Job Training Informal learning Workplace Skills Will Skills Distill On the Job Training Informal learning Continuing education Career Lattice

Workplace Skills Will Willing to take a job: At lower level, lesser wage In a different locale Show flexibility & initiative Skills Distill

Skills Strong academics Distill On the Job Training Informal learning Workplace Skills Workplace Basics! Communication skills Getting along with others Critical thinking Will Willing to take a job: At lower level, lesser wage In a different locale Show flexibility & initiative Skills Strong academics High School diploma Post secondary schooling Appropriate technical skills Distill On the Job Training Informal learning Continuing education Career Lattice

There is much more story to tell, but this version is over Thank you! richard.froeschle@twc.state.tx.us