ORGANIZED CRIME and ECONOMIC CRISIS in/on ITALY Dipartimento di Giurisprudenza International two-day conference 15 / 16 September 2016. Law School, University of A Corunna Crisis, Economy & Punishment: the influence of great recession on crime and penalty ORGANIZED CRIME and ECONOMIC CRISIS in/on ITALY

Link between economic factors and crime Economic indicators showed significant changes suggestive of a period of economic crisis in 2008/2009. Both visual inspection of data series and statistical modelling suggest that in Italy and in specific regions, changes in economic factors were associated with changes in crime, leading to identifiable crime ‘peaks’ during the time of crisis. Violent property crime types such as robbery appeared most affected during times of crisis, with up to two-fold increases in some contexts during a period of economic stress

Purpose of presentation This paper will consider three main questions: How to identify the presence of organized crime in Italy? in what way has organized crime been affected by the crisis? What is the “predictable” result founded on empirical data? Finally similarities and differences among the criminal offences’ growth will be explained, outlining the main challenges organized crime is going through in Italy. We point out a qualitative analysis provided for statistical data by special anti-mafia units ‘ reports (first period 2008-10/second period 2011-2014)

MAFIA WORLD ART. 416 bis Italian criminal code Mafia-type Associations The term "Mafia", first used only to define a Sicilian phenomenon, is now used to describe any organized criminal group and it is certainly one of the words in the Italian language that is the best known and most used internationally. ART. 416 bis Italian criminal code The phenomenon called "Mafia" as developed in Sicily, presents some characteristics which have made it a sort of paradigm, or frame of reference for similar organizations which have developed elsewhere in more recent times Mafia-type Associations

ORGANIZED CRIME as LABEL We use the label Organized Crime (OC) to define a criminal organization characterized by the following elements: (1) it acts in a geographical area where there is a State vacuum; (2 it is involved in multiple legal and illegal activities; (3) it develops forms of coordination, characterized by long-run horizon and multiple types of hierarchical structures; (4) it makes use of the violence or the threat of violence in order to achieve a local control and promote its business the Sicilian Mafia can be considered a "winning model" of Organized Crime (at least until now) due to its complexity and long-standing role in society, but care must be taken against stereotypes that always see the octopus' tentacles everywere.

Organized crime as phenomenon Today's society produces criminality because of some of its main characteristics (the globalization of capitalism increases the gap between underdeveloped nations and developed nations and between social groups. The financiarization of economy and the liberalization of the circulation of capitals offer many possibilities to laundering illegal capitals, the prohibition of drugs has made the traffickers the richest criminals of the history) and the intertwining of legal and illegal economies as well as of criminal organizations and the social and institutional context.

The influence of financial crisis on OC in Italy Exceptional circumstances reduced government social expenditure, increased cost of basic consumer goods, and restrictions on local credit availability unemployment as a proxy for economic activity

Statistical perspectives In addition to economic variables, changes in a large number of other factors, including the availability and degree of protection of potential crime targets, presence of youth gangs, drugs and weapons availability, drug and alcohol consumption, willingness to report crime, as well as methods and capacities for recording crime Further criminological factors - that may impact on the relationship crime-economic stress - include the introduction and adoption of better security systems and devices, possible shifts away from ‘traditional’ property crimes such as theft to new types of acquisitive crime such as computer fraud, and the impact of government policy aimed at reducing crime. In addition, crime series data demonstrate that crime levels are often subject to long-running trends that may be related to a complex interplay of gradually changing socio-economic factors.

OC & Economic factors Short term Medium term Long run term GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP). CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) . Unemployment rate Short term Medium term Long run term

Model of criminal offences economic factors may have the potential to impact upon not only forms of property crime, but also on violent crime. Intentional homicide These crime types have the advantage of being comparatively well defined, often reported to law enforcement officials following victimization Robbery Both of crime rates and economic situations have the potential to change significantly within the course of one year, requiring high frequency data if such changes are to be explored Motor cycle thefts

Statistical sources We analyze the criminal statistics for Italy as produced by the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) on a provincial basis (level administrative units), and we reconstruct the activities of criminal organizations by distinguishing between (a) offenses or crimes to obtain and maintain the social control of the territory (the local power of OC) and (b) offenses and crimes that measure the presence of criminal organizations in legal and illegal markets (the economic extent of OC). These two dimensions, the first local and the second global, have suggested the use by some authors of the term "glocal" to indicate the geographical space of action of OC.

Data on homicides by OC in Calabria Region (1992-2009)

Data on homicides by OC in Campania Region (1992-2009)

Data on homicides by OC in Puglia Region (1992-2009)

Data on homicides by OC in Sicilia Region (1992-2009)

Statistics on Money Laudering (Suspected operations Art. 41 D. Lgs. 21   Statistics on Money Laudering (Suspected operations Art. 41 D. Lgs. 21.11.2007, nr. 231 )

Statistics on persons involved in criminal organizations for committing Suspected operations Art. 41 D. Lgs. 21.11.2007, nr. 231 ) ORGANIZED CRIMINAL ASSOCIATIONS 1° semester 2014   Puglia criminal associations 6 2,39% camorra 34 13,55% Other criminal ass. 50 19,92% cosa nostra 58 23,11% ndrangheta 103 41,04% Total 251 100,00%

Statistics on OC involved in Money Laudering (1° semester 2014)

Statistics first semester 2013 DIA

References Paolo Pinotti, The economic costs of organized crime: evidence from southern Italy, Working paper, n.868, April 2012; Guido De Blasio, Carlo Menon, Down and out in Italian towns: measuring the impact of economic downturns on crime, Working paper, n.925, July 2013; Carlo Capuano and Francesco Puricato, The Macroeconomic Impact of Organized Crime: a Neo-Kaleckian Perspective, August 2012; Mitsuyasu Ishikawa, “A Relations between Economic Conditions and Crime Rate, http://userwww.sfsu.edu/~ishikawa/documents/Economic%20Conditions %20and%20Crime%20Rate.pdf . Barbagli, Colombo (a cura di), Rapporto sulla criminalità e sicurezza in Italia, 2010, 2011, Il sole24 ore. UNIDOC Report, Monitoring the Impact of economic crisis on crime, Vienna, 2010; M. A. Pasculli, Organized Crime in Italy: The Puglia Mafia. PRIM@ FACIE, vol. 10, 2011, p. 253-292; Ardizzi, G., Petraglia, C., Piacenza, M., Turati G. (2012) Measuring the underground economy with the currency demand approach: a reinterpretation of the methodology, with an application to Italy, WP 864, Banca d’Italia;

References Argentiero, A., Bagella, M., Busato F. (2008) Money laundering in a two sector model: using theory for measurement, European Journal of Law and Economics;