The International Migration Outlook (2012) An overview of results Palácio Foz, Lisbon 15 November 2012 Georges Lemaître International Migration Division OECD

The general migration outlook in 2010 A drop in inflows of about 3% in 2010 OECD-wide and signs of a turn-around in 2011 but for 2012 ? Levels are at about those of 2005 EU immigration levels have fallen by 25% since 2007 - 41% free circulation - 14% « third-country » immigration Temporary labour movements are reactive – down 24% 2008-2009, small pick-up in 2010 Still, the declines were small overall for the OECD, given that this was the most serious recession since the Great Depression (in 1930’s, down 80% in US).

The crisis could scarcely have happened at a worse time. The first post-war baby-boom cohorts were retiring  high pension costs to finance migrants as contributors. Governments were focused on the need for further labour migration, and EU enlargement had bought time, by reducing, temporarily, the need to look beyond the EU. High unemployment and mounting debt pressures are now complicating the future of migration  a lot of labour market slack to be absorbed, both immigrants and non-immigrant.

The impact of the crisis on international migration movements.

The impact of the economic crisis: Movements did not decline everywhere.

The situation for Portugal Based on grants of residence permits, includes changes of status.

Portugal is about average within the EU, somewhat below average within the OECD, with respect to immigration levels .

Portugal is not too different from the average with respect to the distribution of migration by type.

Decline in expatriation during the crisis, at least until 2010. . From the statistics of the destination countries.

Unemployment has generally increased more for immigrants,as a result of the crisis, but not everywhere.

Likewise, employment has declined more for immigrants than for the native-born.

Lessons on migration to retain from the crisis and other recent experiences. Labour migration tends to be self-regulating  it falls during downturns and rises during upturns, without policy intervention. Employers do not automatically turn to migration when the opportunity to recruit from abroad is made easier (example of Sweden). Governments need to be careful about employer permit requests for jobs which tend to be cut during downturns (e.g. construction jobs). Admitting labour migrants without jobs, even highly skilled (as Canada has traditionally done) is not working as well as it used to. If immigrants can only be admitted if they have a job offer, then it is employer choice which determines which labour migrants will be admitted  the role of the employer is a key one.

Where do we go from here? Need to ensure that immigrants … are not selectively laid off and have a fair chance to reintegrate the ranks of the employed . Monitor requests by employers for labour immigrants to ensure that they correspond to needs that cannot be filled domestically. Prepare the future  labour migration policies for tomorrow.

A look at the future. Projections based on World Population Prospects, UN Popn Div

Let’s see what the past ten years can tell us about what is to come.

Entering cohorts are far better educated than retiring ones, with new immigrants in between.

High-skilled jobs are growing, others are declining and immigrant role is more significant in low-skilled jobs.

Immigrants are taking up the slack in low-skilled occupations.

The association between low parental education and children’s outcomes there are both individual effects and collective effects.

Lessons for future skill needs and migration. Youth are becoming more and more educated  avoiding 3D jobs Immigrants are playing a significant role in satisfying needs in lesser skilled jobs. Historically, the problem with lesser-skilled migration has been Maintaining employability of low-educated migrants over the medium-term Avoiding adverse effects on the second generation, strongly associated with the concentration of disadvantage. If there is a lesson from the past 40 years of migration, it is that OECD countries do not do a good job of integration with immigrant populations of education levels substantially below their own.  Can they do a better job with better policies?

Thank you for your attention. www.oecd.org/migration