Human Population: Growth, Demography and Carrying Capacity AP Environmental Science LCHS Dr. E 1

Population Pyramids Graphic device: bar graph shows the age and gender composition of a region horizontal axis: gender male: left-hand female: right-hand absolute number of people or % vertical axis: age 5-year or 10-year age groups

Population Pyramid with young cohorts

Population Pyramids High Growth: Afghanistan Population Pyramids on the Web High Growth: Afghanistan Moderate Growth: Mexico Zero Growth: U.S. Negative Growth: Austria or Italy

Population Pyramids Moderate Growth: Mexico Population Pyramids on the Web High Growth: Afghanistan Moderate Growth: Mexico Zero Growth: U.S. Negative Growth: Austria or Italy

Population Pyramids Zero Growth: U.S. Population Pyramids on the Web High Growth: Afghanistan Moderate Growth: Mexico Zero Growth: U.S. Negative Growth: Austria or Italy

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Population Pyramids Negative Growth: Italy Population Pyramids on the Web High Growth: Afghanistan Moderate Growth: Mexico Zero Growth: U.S. Negative Growth: Italy 10

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Demographic Transition Movement of a nation from high population growth to low population as it develops economically Transition as a result of four stages Stage 1—Birth and death rates are both high Stage 2—Death rates fall; birth rates remain high; growth rate rises Stage 3—Birth rates fall as standard of living rises; growth rate falls Stage 4—Growth rate continues to fall to zero or to a negative rate 12

The Demographic Transition                                                                                                                                                                 

Five Stages of the Demographic Transition Used to be 4, now 5 stages birth rates, death rates and growth rates systematically change through time as societies change: modernize, urbanize gain access to technology 14

Population Pyramids and Demographic Stages characteristics shapes of ‘pyramids’ wide base (true pyramid) wide middle (bulge), somewhat wider base urn- or bottle-shaped reversed pyramid different shapes--different dynamics 15

Stage 1 high birth rates, high (at time erratic) death rates, low growth rates stage for much of human history, traditional societies practically no country today

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Stage 2 high birth rates, declining death rates, rising growth rates improvements in sanitation (water) and medicine in Europe during Industrial Revolution in developing countries since the 50s/60s much of Africa today, some countries of Asia (Afghanistan, Nepal, etc.) 18

Population Pyramid and Demographic Transition Stage 2: wide base stage 3: wide middle stage 4: slender stage 5: narrow base

Stage 3 continued decline of death rates, declining birth rates, growth rates decline from high to lower levels change in behavior: adaptation to lower death rate, in particular infant mortality rate economic change: urbanization (incentive to have fewer children) Mexico today 20

Population Pyramid and Demographic Transition Stage 2: wide base stage 3: wide middle stage 4: slender stage 5: narrow base

Stage 4 & 5 Stage 4: low birth rates, low death rates, low growth rates United States today Stage 5: low birth rates, rising death rates, declining growth rates (if birth rates drop below death rates: negative growth rates) several countries of Europe today (Austria)

Population Pyramid and Demographic Transition Stage 2: wide base stage 3: wide middle stage 4: slender stage 5: narrow base 23

Population Pyramid and Demographic Transition Stage 2: wide base stage 3: wide middle stage 4: slender stage 5: narrow base 24

Demographic Trap “Trapped” in Stage 2 of Demographic Transition High birth and low death rates result in explosive population growth Downward spiral in standard of living 26

A country with an age distribution like that shown in the figure below, is most likely a country that is experiencing rapid growth is experiencing slow or no population growth is experiencing a high death rate has 40% of the population under age 15 is a less-developed country

As a country goes through the demographic transition, the greatest rate of population growth takes place during which phase? The preindustrial The pretransitional The transitional The industrial The postindustrial

Which of the following is the best description of a population that has a stable age distribution? A large population that is growing at a constant rate A large population with a negative growth rate A population that is in the early stages of logistic population growth A growing population in which the proportions of individuals in the different age classes remain constant A small population that has not yet achieved exponential growth

Tracking the baby-boom generation in the United States

Effects of Population Decline As percentage of 60+ aged people increases, population begins decline 60+population increase --> severe economic and social problems because 60+ consume more medical care Social Security costly public services Labor shortages require automation & immigration

The Graying of Japan Family-planning access, cramped housing, expensive land, late marriage, education cost --> voluntary decrease in birth rate Low immigration rate Health insurance and pension - 45% of national income; could -->low economy Illegal immigration bolsters work force 32

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MI L I O NS 35

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Current World Population Population ClockPopulation Clock Vital Events (per time unit) Global population was 7,299,685,471 On January 18, 2016 at 2:57 pm The global population grows by: Nearly 2.3 persons per seconds Nearly 8,343 persons per hour Over 200,234 persons per day Over 73 million persons per year

How Much is a Billion? 1,000 seconds = 16.7 minutes 1 million-s = 16,677 min = 11.6 days 1 billion-s = 11,574 days = 31.7 years 1,000 pennies = ~ 88 ounces = 5.5 pounds 1 million pennies = 5,500 pounds (~1-Suburban) 1 billion pennies = 2,750 tons (~2 Space Shuttles)

Human Population Dynamics There are just three sources of change in population size — fertility mortality "natural decrease" refers to population decline resulting from more deaths than births migration Net migration is the number of immigrants minus emigrants

Population Growth Intrinsic rate of growth depends upon birth rates death rates immigration rates (into area) emigration rates (exit area) Pop = Pop0 + (b + i) - (d + e) ZPG (b + i) = (d + e) 40

One thousand one hundred and seventy deer are living on an island that is four hundred and thirty square kilometers in size. What is the population density of the deer per square kilometer?

A city with 23,340 people has 876 births A city with 23,340 people has 876 births. What is the birth rate (as a percentage)?

A city with 23,340 people has 876 births A city with 23,340 people has 876 births. What is the birth rate (per thousand)?

Rates of Global Pop. Change use: International Data Base http://www Rates of Global Pop. Change use: International Data Base http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbnew.html, then Online Demographic Aggregation CBR (crude birth rate) = # births / 1000 population 1990: 24 now: 20.6 CDR (crude death rate) = # deaths / 1000 population 1990: 9 now: 8.8 Growth Rate = (b + i) – (d + e) 1990: 1.5% now: 1.19% growth rates have come down 44

Human Population Dynamics Years TFR 1950–1955 4.95 1955–1960 4.89 1960–1965 4.91 1965–1970 4.85 1970–1975 4.45 1975–1980 3.84 1980–1985 3.59 1985–1990 3.39 1990–1995 3.04 1995–2000 2.79 2000–2005 2.62 2005–2010 2.52 2010–2015 2.36 Human Population Dynamics Total fertility rate (TFR) The average number of children born to a woman Average in developed countries = 1.5 Average in developing countries = 3.8 Worldwide 2.36 United States 2.06

Human Population Dynamics Years TFR 1950–1955 4.95 1955–1960 4.89 1960–1965 4.91 1965–1970 4.85 1970–1975 4.45 1975–1980 3.84 1980–1985 3.59 1985–1990 3.39 1990–1995 3.04 1995–2000 2.79 2000–2005 2.62 2005–2010 2.52 2010–2015 2.36 Human Population Dynamics Total fertility rate (TFR) The average number of children born to a woman Average in developed countries = 1.5 Average in developing countries = 3.8 Worldwide 2.36 United States 2.06 Replacement fertility rate (RFR) The number of children a couple must have to replace themselves A RFR of 2.1 for developed countries with low infant and child mortality rates Africa RFR = 2.5

Rule of 70 70 = # of years % growth

Overall, the world population is growing at a rate of about 1 Overall, the world population is growing at a rate of about 1.7 per cent; if this rate continues, the population will double in 42 years. Unabated, such a rate would lead to a point about 2000 years hence when the mass of humanity would weigh more, and be larger, than the Earth. But, the growth rate is decreasing

Human Population Dynamics Infant Mortality Rate IMR infant deaths per 1000 live births (infant < 1 yr) 1990: 62 now: 59 (normal in 1900: 200)

http://www. povertymap http://www.povertymap.net/pub/mipwa/sections/w-global/health-sanit/infant-mortality-2.htm

Human Population Dynamics Infant Mortality Rate IMR infant deaths per 1000 live births (infant < 1 yr) 1990: 62 now: 59 (normal in 1900: 200)

www.tte-online.com/.../table-of-contents/ chem-enc-1.html

Maternal Deaths per 100,000 Live Births Source: WHO, UNICEF, UNFPA Maternal Mortality in 1995: Estimates Developed by WHO, UNICEF AND UNFPA, 2001.

Migration Net migration is the number of immigrants minus emigrants

Influencing Population Size Most countries restrict immigration Canada, Australia, U.S. - most immigration Involuntary immigration results from armed conflict environmental degradation natural disaster --> environmental refugees ~1% of developing nations pop. Emigrates Migration from rural to urban areas

What Is Family Planning? Definition Measures enabling parents to control number of children (if they so desire) Goals of Family Planning Not to limit births For couples to have healthy children For couples to be able to care for their children For couples to have the number of children that they want

Family Planning: reduce births and abortions 59% contraceptive use in developed countries -46% overall, up from 10% in 60s

Rewards and Penalties to reduce births What might work: encourage, rather than coerce, people to have fewer children reinforce existing customs and trends toward smaller families don’t penalize for already existing larger family increase poor family’s economic status

Empowering women to reduce births Women tend to have fewer, and healthier children when: they have access to education and paying jobs outside home their society doesn’t suppress women’s rights But women do most of the work not shown in GDP because of lower pay Women excluded from economic and political decision making 63

Case Studies - India Family planning efforts began in 1952; fertility rate declined from 5.3 to 3.4 but population grow is still exponential -1.9% Disappointing results due to: poor planning bureaucratic inefficiency low status of women extreme poverty lack of administrative & financial support 64

Case Studies - China Family planning efforts began in 1970; TFR fell from 5.7 to 1.8; infant mortality and illiteracy rates 1/3 to 1/2 of India’s rates Population control program is extensive, intrusive and strict: postpone childbearing only one child/family -->benefits effect b/c China is dictatorship; limited resources would have mean disaster 65

Cutting Global Population Growth U. N.Conference on Population and Development, Cairo, 1994 8 goals to be met by 2015 (p. 276) are these goals wishful thinking? Replacement level fertility can be met in 15-30 years as shown by Japan, Thailand… Invest in family planning, reduce poverty, and elevate status of women 66

Short of thermonuclear war itself, rampant population growth is the gravest issue the world faces over the decades immediately ahead. If we do not act, the problem will be solved by famine, riots, insurrection and war. Robert S. McNamara 67

percentage growth rate percentage population change We can calculate ____ by subtracting the number of people leaving a population from the number entering it during a specified period of time. growth rate population change percentage growth rate percentage population change 68

If a city of population 10,000 experiences 100 births, 40 deaths, 10 immigrants, and 30 emigrants in the course of a year, what is its net annual percentage growth rate? 0.4% 0.8% 1.0% 4.0% 8.0% 69

A village of 33,473 people has 2,342 births and 573 deaths A village of 33,473 people has 2,342 births and 573 deaths. What is the growth rate for this village? 70

A small country of 1,744,785 people has 44,678 immigrants and 12,567 emigrants. They also experience 15,898 deaths and 35,665 births. What is the growth rate of this small country? 71

A small country of 1,744,785 people has 44,678 immigrants and 12,567 emigrants. They also experience 15,898 deaths and 35,665 births. What is the growth rate of this small country? How many years will it take for this country to double its population?

Recycling aluminum cans Using fuel-efficient vehicles Which of the following practices would have the biggest impact on achieving global sustainability? Recycling aluminum cans Using fuel-efficient vehicles Replanting deforested areas Reducing human population size Developing ecotourism venues 73

Which of the following is a true statement about the total fertility of a society? is the difference between the crude birth rate and the crude death rate. is the number of children necessary for a couple to replace themselves in the next generation. is positively correlated with the average education of women. is negatively correlated with the number of women of child-bearing age. decreases as the society progresses through the demographic transition. 74

The current global human population is about 7 The current global human population is about 7.3 billion and is growing at an annual rate of 1.35 percent. If world population were to grow at this rate for the next year, approximately how many people would be added? 9.6 X 105 9.6 X 106 9.6 X 107 9.6 X 108 9.6 X 109 75