Climate Change Solutions Nicky Phear November 16, 2009 2006 2007 2008 2009

Climate Events This Week Tuesday, November 17 UM Climate Action Plan Open House 3:00 pm, University Center Theater, 3rd Floor UC Center Sponsored by the UM Office of Sustainability.  * The UM is in the process of creating a Climate Action Plan to analyze and prioritize strategies to reduce its emissions.  The plan addresses the three largest sectors of UM carbon dioxide emissions: purchased electricity, transportation, and energy on campus from the steam co-generator.  This Open House provides an opportunity to learn about and comment on the draft; the comment period will continue until December 1.   Tuesday, November 17 A Community Discussion of Global Cap and Trade 7:30 pm, University Center North Ballroom, 3rd Floor UC Center * Landon Vandyke - former Associate Director of International Affairs and Climate Change for the White House Council on Environmental Quality and current special advisor at the U. S. Department of State * Murali Kanakasabai - VP and senior Economist with the Chicago Climate Exchange * Keegan Eisenstadt - CEO and President of Missoula's ClearSky Climate Solutions. Sponsored by The Sustainable Business Council and The MontanaWorld Affairs Council.   Wednesday, November 18 Down to the Wire: Confronting Climate Collapse 8:00 pm, University Center North Ballroom, 3rd Floor UC Center Dr. David Orr, Professor of Environmental Studies and Politics Sponsored by the President’s Lecture Series and Brennan Guth Memorial Lecture in conjunction with the EVST program. Thursday, November 19 Spring Semester Climate Change Internship Opportunities – An open forum for students 5:00-6:00 pm, Main Hall, Room 210 Sponsored by the Climate Change Studies Program. Students interested in doing a climate change-related internship next spring are welcome to attend this forum to learn about available opportunities and meet potential supervisors.  Details are on the CCS website for students who cannot make it to the forum.

Climate Change How would you define the climate problem? What solutions exist? How would you evaluate solutions?

How would you define the climate problem? “The problem of climate change starts with the actions of people and ends with the actions of people.” ~Nicholas Stern in The Global Deal Particularly complex: Externality is long term It is global It is potentially of a huge scale

What solutions exist and how would you evaluate them? Existing Solutions: Emit Less (use less, become more efficient in what use, use fewer fossil fuels) Improve the absorptive capacity of the land (forests, soils, oceans) Geoengineer to remove CO2 and cool the planet Adapt Suffer Solutions must be: Effective Efficient Equitable

Test # 3 Questions (1) Elevator Talk Why do you care about climate change (consider why you see it as a problem, and the framing you use) What you think should be done about it (solutions) How you want to participate in/engage with solutions (2) Climate Stabilization and Wedge Solution What target should we set and why? How many wedges will this require, and which ones do you think we should use? Fill in the Stabilization Triangle. Evaluate your solution based on its effectiveness, efficiency, and equity. Consider various global stakeholder groups, such as the auto industry, taxpayers/consumers, an environmental advocacy organization, a developing country, or the US. Judging ensures that economic and political impacts are considered and emphasizes the need for consensus among a brad coalition of stakeholders. *You are welcome, and in fact encouraged, to work with others to formulate your answers.

Climate Stabilization and the Wedge Solution A Concept and Game This presentation is based on the “Stabilization Wedges” concept first presented in "Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the next 50 Years with Current Technologies,” S. Pacala and R. Socolow, Science, August 13, 2004 And presentation available at: http://cmi.princeton.edu/wedges/

2 4 8 800 = Ocean Land Biosphere (net) Fossil Fuel Burning + billion tons go out Ocean Land Biosphere (net) Fossil Fuel Burning + 8 800 billion tons carbon billion tons go in ATMOSPHERE billion tons added every year

Past, Present, and Potential Future Carbon Levels in the Atmosphere Billions of tons of carbon “Doubled” CO2 Today Pre-Industrial Glacial 800 1200 600 400 billions of tons carbon ATMOSPHERE ( ppm ) (570) (380) (285) (190)

Historical Emissions Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year 16 Historical emissions 8 1950 2000 2050 2100 10

Stabilization Triangle The Stabilization Triangle Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year 16 Current path = “ramp” Stabilization Triangle Interim Goal Historical emissions 8 Flat path 1.6 1950 2000 2050 2100 11

Stabilization Triangle The Stabilization Triangle Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year Easier CO2 target 16 Current path = “ramp” ~850 ppm Stabilization Triangle Interim Goal Historical emissions 8 Flat path Tougher CO2 target ~500 ppm 1.6 1950 2000 2050 2100 12

Stabilization Wedges Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year 16 Current path = “ramp” 16 GtC/y Eight “wedges” Goal: In 50 years, same global emissions as today Historical emissions 8 Flat path 1.6 1950 2000 2050 2100 13

15 Wedge Strategies in 4 Categories Energy Efficiency & Conservation (4) 16 GtC/y Fuel Switching (1) Renewable Fuels & Electricity (4) Stabilization Stabilization Triangle Triangle CO2 Capture & Storage (3) 8 GtC/y Forest and Soil Storage (2) 2007 2057 Nuclear Fission (1) 14

Efficiency Double the fuel efficiency of the world’s cars or halve miles traveled Produce today’s electric capacity with double today’s efficiency There are about 600 million cars today, with 2 billion projected for 2055 Average coal plant efficiency is 32% today “E,T, H” = can be applied to electric, transport, or heating sectors, $=rough indication of cost (on a scale of $ to $$$) Use best efficiency practices in all residential and commercial buildings Replacing all the world’s incandescent bulbs with CFL’s would provide 1/4 of one wedge $

Wind Electricity Install 1 million 2 MW windmills to replace coal-based electricity, OR Use 2 million windmills to produce hydrogen fuel “E,T, H” = can be applied to electric, transport, or heating sectors, $-$$=rough indication of cost (on a scale of $ to $$$) A wedge worth of wind electricity will require increasing current capacity by a factor of 30 $ $

Solar Electricity “E” = can be applied to electric sector, $$$=rough indication of cost (on a scale of $ to $$$) $ $ $ A wedge of solar electricity would mean increasing current capacity 700 times

Biofuels $ $ Scale up current global ethanol production by 30 times “T, H” = can be applied to transport or heating sectors, $$=rough indication of cost (on a scale of $ to $$$) Using current practices, one wedge requires planting an area the size of India with biofuels crops $ $

Natural Sinks $ Eliminate tropical deforestation OR Plant new forests over an area the size of the continental U.S. Use conservation tillage on all cropland (1600 Mha) “B” = biostorage sector, $=rough indication of cost (on a scale of $ to $$$) Conservation tillage is currently practiced on less than 10% of global cropland $

Nuclear Electricity $ $ Triple the world’s nuclear electricity capacity by 2055 “E” = can be applied to electric sector, $$=rough indication of cost (on a scale of $ to $$$) Plutonium (Pu) production by 2054, if fuel cycles are unchanged: 4000 t Pu (and another 4000 t Pu if current capacity is continued). Compare with ~ 1000 t Pu in all current spent fuel, ~ 100 t Pu in all U.S. weapons. 5 kg ~ Pu critical mass. The rate of installation required for a wedge from electricity is equal to the global rate of nuclear expansion from 1975-1990. $ $

Fuel Switching Substitute 1400 natural gas electric plants for an equal number of coal-fired facilities “E,H” = can be applied to electric or heating sectors, $=rough indication of cost (on a scale of $ to $$$) Effort needed for 1 wedge: Build 1400 GW of capacity powered by natural gas instead of coal (60% of current fossil fuel electric capacity) Requires an amount of natural gas equal to that used for all purposes today So a slice is 50 LNG tanker discharges/day by 2054 @200,000 m3/tanker, or one new “Alaska” pipeline/year @ 4 Bscfd. Detailed Description: NATURAL GAS TURBINES ARE BEING DEVELOPED TO PRODUCE ELECTRICITY IN A SIMPLE, LOW COST ENVIRONMENTALLY FRIENDLY WAY. DOE'S NATIONAL ENERGY TECHNOLOGY LABORATORY (NETL) INITIATED THE ADVANCED TURBINE SYSTEMS (ATS) PROGRAM AND HAS PARTNERED WITH INDUSTRY TO PRODUCE A NEW GENERATION OF HIGH EFFICIENCY GAS TURBINES FOR CENTRAL STATION ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION, USING CLEAN BURNING NATURAL GAS. 700 1-GW baseload coal plants (5400 TWh/y) emit 1 GtC/y. Natural gas: 1 GtC/y = 190 Bscfd Yr 2000 electricity: Coal : 6000 TWh/y; Natural gas: 2700 TWh/y. A wedge requires an amount of natural gas equal to that used for all purposes today $

Carbon Capture & Storage Implement CCS at 800 GW coal electric plants or 1600 GW natural gas electric plants or 180 coal synfuels plants or 10 times today’s capacity of hydrogen plants “E,T, H” = can be applied to electric, transport, or heating sectors, $=rough indication of cost (on a scale of $ to $$$) There are currently three storage projects that each inject 1 million tons of CO2 per year – by 2055 need 3500. $ $

Take Home Messages In order to avoid a doubling of atmospheric CO2, we need to rapidly deploy low-carbon energy technologies and/or enhance natural sinks We already have an adequate portfolio of technologies to make large cuts in emissions No one technology can do the whole job – a variety of strategies will need to be used to stay on a path that avoids a CO2 doubling Every “wedge” has associated impacts and costs