Theme Address G. Chandrashekhar / Rajini Panicker IMC-ERTF Seminar on Southwest Monsoon Outlook and Kharif Crop Prospects 2016. Mumbai. June 22, 2016 Theme Address G. Chandrashekhar / Rajini Panicker

Why is agriculture critical? Agri contributes to only 15% to GDP, but employs >50% of workforce Agri critical for ‘growth with equity and inclusiveness’ SW monsoon driver of farm output (irrigated cultivation on only 40% of land)

Why is 2016 SW monsoon important? In 2014 and in 2015, India faced El Nino induced dry conditions SW monsoon was -12% in 2014 and -14% in 2015. Lower crop size; widened demand-supply mismatch; Food inflation (moderated partly by low crude oil prices); fall in rural incomes; rural distress-2015-16 drought worst in living memory- affected 330 mln people across India

Why is 2016 SW monsoon important? Deficient rainfall was accompanied with the fact that India witnessed third warmest year in 2015 since 1901. Water reservoir levels as of June 16 stood at just 15% !! of total storage capacity (as compared with 57% last year and 10 year average at 80% for same period) What’s in store for 2016 ?

2016 SW Monsoon – the forecast After wrecking weather havoc across the globe for 14 months, El Nino (abnormal warming of waters in eastern and central equatorial Pacific -associated with fall in monsoonal rain over Indian Subcontinent) has turned neutral and La Nina (El Nino’s counterpart and associated with normal to above normal rainfall in Indian subcontinent) is expected to set in as weeks follow. The table below shows government and private weather agencies forecasts for 2016 monsoon. Source : IMD, World Weather Inc, Skymet All weather forecasters agree on one point, that total rainfall could be above normal and will not cause any concern.

2016 SW Monsoon – the forecast Spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall is critical for boost to Kharif crop prospects. IMD’s spatial distribution suggest above normal rainfall across a major portion of the country, a positive increase in rain coverage could suggest not just an increase in kharif area but also production across the states (barring East and North East). Source : IMD

2016 SW Monsoon – the forecast Temporal distribution of monsoon could assume more importance in 2016. According to IMD, monsoon in July 2016 is forecast at 107% of LPA and in Aug at 104% of normal. Private forecasters also have similar forecasts and have said that July and Aug would remain wetter biased across much of the nation. Our consultants World Weather Inc. suggest that, the rainfall in India should improve as La Nina develops, but if it(La Nina) continues slow to begin some of the rain predicted for India this year may have to be reduced.

Major Kharif Crops: Actual 2015 and Target 2016 (in Million tons) Crop 2015 2016 Rice 90.6 93.0 Maize 15.5 17.5 Pulses 5.5 7.3 Oilseeds 17.2 23.5 Cotton* 30.5 36.0 Sugarcane 346.7 355.0 Government has set strong targets for kharif crop output improvement, particularly for pulses and oilseeds. A spatially and temporally well distributed monsoon could push kharif output towards the set objectives.

SW Monsoon 2016: status Monsoon during June 1-21 was deficient (-21% of LPA). Delayed onset; progress stalled for a week; has picked up last three days and has covered >50% of the country Another 12-13 weeks to go; June accounts for 18% of total rainfall; July and August heaviest. Anticipate beneficial distribution and general rebound in kharif harvest

Any risk? Yes; incipient signal of La Nina; can bring excess and extended rainfall. World Weather Inc forecasts some areas in the north getting 130-150% of normal rainfall in August. Can potentially impact kharif crops; delay harvest – in Aug crops are in vegetative/grain formation stage. Sept/Oct-development/harvest. Government should be ready with instruments of policy response

THANK YOU