School of Natural Resources, and Environmental Program We Paved Paradise and Put up a Parking Lot Economic, Social, and Ecological Implications of Incremental Choice Jon Erickson School of Natural Resources, and Environmental Program University of Vermont

(marginal, and potentially episodic) FEEDBACK LOOPS (marginal, and potentially episodic) The Tyranny of Small Decisions Marginal Economic Change Marginal Land-Use Change Incremental Watershed Health Decline Chlorides School Quality Traffic Congestion Energy Dependence Social Networks Community Services OUTSIDE WORLD

PARTICIPATORY PLANNING for BIO-REGIONAL POLICY FEEDBACK LOOPS Out from Under the Tyranny Economic Structure and Change Land-Use Change and Social Context Biophysical Watershed Health Land Use Society Community Economy $ Firms Households OUTSIDE WORLD PARTICIPATORY PLANNING for BIO-REGIONAL POLICY

Dutchess County, New York 2,077 km2, mixed land use 970 km of named streams > 132,000 employment pool IBM = >11,000 SW to NE development gradient Effective buying income (EBI) ranks 15th in the U.S.

Wappingers Watershed 1992 2001 % urban/suburban % forest % agricultural 1992 2001 Historical land use change

Fishkill Watershed 1992 2001 % urban/suburban % forest % agricultural Historical land use change

Group of Decision-Makers Alt-1 DM-2 Alt-2 DM-1 DM-3 Alt-3

Individual Decision-Maker Alt-1 CEc CSc Alt-2 CEv Alt-3

GOAL Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3 CEc CSc CEv CEc CSc CEv w1 + w2 + w3 = 1 Alt-1 CEc CSc Alt-2 CEv Alt-3

Alternatives CEc CSc Ecological Criteria But, biotic responses very noisy! Chemistry follows land use

Alternatives CEc Social Criteria CEv Land Use Census by Block, Tract, Town, Zip . . . Business Point Tax Parcel

Alternatives Economic Criteria CSc CEv GOVERMENT INDUSTRY HOUSEHOLDS Private Goods & Services Public Services Consumption Goods Labor CAPITAL OUTSIDE WORLD Exports Imports Depreciation Investment

Alt 1 Alt 2 Alt 3

Scenario Analysis Efficient ALLOCATION Equitable DISTRIBUTION Economic Structure and Change Efficient ALLOCATION Land-Use Change and Social Context Biophysical Land Use Society Community Economy Firms Households Individuals Equitable DISTRIBUTION Watershed Health Sustainable SCALE

GOAL Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3 CEc CSc CEv CEc CSc CEv CEc CSc CEv