Equity, ESSA, and Secondary School Reform and Innovation Robert Balfanz, Everyone graduates Center, School of Education, Johns Hopkins University CSSOS Annual Policy Forum November 2016

This is like … CLIMBING A MOUNTAIN IN THE RAIN IT IS DIFFICULT WORK UNDER CHALLENGING CONDITIONS

To climb a mountain in the rain you need ... HOPE PURPOSE KNOW HOW

HOPE

Real progress for NCLB, Common Core, and Race to Top Generation 2001-2016

High school graduation rates - big improvements after 35 years of stagnation 2000 Today High school graduation rate 70% 83% an all-time high Low-income & minority students almost 40% dropped out high school graduation was not the norm for low-income and minority students most gains occurred among minority students 1.2 million more minority graduates Low graduation rate high schools attended almost exclusively by low- income and minority students 2,000 produced half of all dropouts 1,000 1 million fewer students attending these high schools

College readiness and access-opportunity gaps are closing As high school graduating classes have become larger, more diverse, and less advantaged -- college readiness rates have remained the same -- this means: more students more diverse students more low income students are graduating college ready then ever before And more of them are enrolling in Postsecondary institutions right after high school Thus on the path to being first recent cohort of young adults to experience both rising educational attainments and opportunity gap closing

There is considerable variability by state All states experienced progress But rate of progress and areas of progress vary considerably Places that worked the problem and stayed with it -- saw the biggest and widest gains National economic or social changes did not lift all boats

PURPOSE

Despite progress - current education system is not working for about 1/3 of the students About 17% of students are not graduating with their high school class - primarily, low income, minority, SWD and ELL About 17% of students are graduating from high school but not immediately enrolling in post-secondary and by available metrics they are not ready to do so

Visualizing the challenge To reach a 90% high school graduation rate by 2020 310,000 more graduates per year are needed Bob 310,000 more students will need to graduate to reach our 90 percent goal – 3 Rose Bowl stadiums worth To reach 90% with equity, and be the nation we want to be, we will need to see means of 90% for all students THAT’S 3 ROSE BOWL STADIUMS

90% on a level playing field requires Four out of five to be Low-Income One out of three to be African American One out of three to be Latino One out of Five to be English Language Learners Two out of five to be Students with Disabilities

To close opportunity gaps between lower and upper income students Need four more Rose Bowls of low income students who graduate high school college ready with access to post-secondary 4 ROSE BOWL STADIUMS

Those still left behind are concentrated in neighborhoods and communities that are socially and economically isolated Urban areas of high and/or multi-generational concentrated poverty-both inner city and inner ring suburbs De-industrialized America- Northern, Midwestern, Southern, small cites and towns that served as satellites for industrial America Rural areas across South, Southwest, and West and Native American Communities with high poverty rates

1,000 High Schools with Graduation Rates of 67% or Less* Where the work remains 1,000 High Schools with Graduation Rates of 67% or Less* A third of the nation’s dropouts come from 1,000 high schools Half the students experiencing extreme poverty are in just 68 districts These low grad rate HS’s are disproportionally clustered in a small number of urban, suburban & rural districts Half of off-track African American and Latino students are in 800 schools in just 70 districts *Adjusted cohort graduation rates for 2014

The typical low graduation rate high school is very challenging Characteristic Average Outcome for Regular and Vocational HS’s with 300 or more students and Grad Rates of 67% or Less Enrollment 916 Graduation Rate 57% Chronic Absenteeism > 15 Days 19% Suspensions 9% Repeat 9th Grade 17% Teacher Absenteeism >10 Days 24% Percent Minority 72% Percent Children Live in Poverty 29%

BUT AVERAGES HIDE THE DEPTH OF THE CHALLENGE IN SOME LOCALES

High poverty and high minority inner ring suburb- whole district is struggling High School A B C Total Enrollment 1,762 1,884 1,215 Graduation Rate 62% 67% 69% Chronic Absenteeism % and Number 74% (1,311) 75% (1,425) ND Suspension Rate % and Number 49% (870) 40% (758) 39% (479) 9th Grade Retention 34% 12% 28% Percent Minority 99% Percent Children Live in Poverty 32%

Single high school districts – with highly challenge HS High School Characteristics Medium City- Intense Poverty Suburb-Large and All Minority Rural- Total Enrollment 1146 3525 511 Grad Rate 30% 63% 57% Chronic Absenteeism 73% 24% 15% Teacher Absenteeism >10 Days 80% 17% 39% Suspended 50% 25% 9% 9th Grade Retention 11% 13% Percent Minority 97% 95% 27% Children Live in Poverty 47% 29% 31%

Characteristics of high school graduates not enrolling and not prepared for post-secondary Very few students with A’s and B’s are not enrolling immediately in post-secondary High school graduates with A and B averages, regardless of race/ethnicity, gender or income levels enroll in post-secondary The high school graduates who are not immediately enrolling in post-secondary and do not appear ready to do so are low C and D average students -- these students are disproportionately low income, minority, and male. (The students for whom the current system is not working) Percent of male high school graduates with C or D average -- 50% Percent of female high school graduates with A or B average -- 63%

Poverty Complicates the Work in these Schools ONE OF THE BIGGEST WAYS POVERTY TAXES SCHOOL SUCCESS IS BY MAKING HARD FOR STUDENTS TO ATTEND EVERYDAY, FOCUS IN CLASS, AND COMPLETE THEIR ASSIGNMENTS

Many Low Grad Rate High Schools are in the 4% of Districts which account for 50% of chronically absent students See Chronic Absence Story Map at http://arcg.is/29jPgaZ

Many small, poor rural school districts have few students but face high rates of chronic absenteeism See Chronic Absence Story Map at http://arcg.is/29jPgaZ

THUS SCHOOL DISTRICTS WITH LOW GRADUATION RATE HIGH SCHOOLS OFTEN FACE A VERY DIFFERENT SET OF CHALLENGES THAN OTHER SCHOOL DISTRICTS. IN THE United States WE HAVE ISLANDS OF CONCENTRATED POVERTY SURROUNDED BY SEAS OF BETTER OFF.

Midwestern districts by the percentage of children in concentrated (40%+) poverty neighborhoods (Balfanz et al., 2015) 25

There is no inoculation again impacts of poverty Academic proficiency is not protective of poverty In large randomized study across 30 high poverty middle schools found that 1/3 of students who were academically proficient in math and English at the end of 5th grade, developed an early warning indicator in 6th grade -- they became chronically absent, got in trouble, or failed math or English What is required are constant and adaptive supports

KNOW HOW

What we know about what works in high needs high poverty low graduation rate high schools Get the analysis right -- not all low graduation rate high schools are the same Some have locked capacity Some are over-matched Some are dysfunctional

What works continued … Focus on reforms which influence the key drivers of student success: Quality of Coursework-How students cognitively engage with their schoolwork Quality of Relationships-What drives students to attend, focus, believe, and try Equitable Access to Strong and Supported Pathways to Post-Secondary Success including Shaped Experiences (e.g. extra-curricular)-Where equity often falls short

Lessons learned from DIPLOMAS NOW – surround teachers and students with support Instructional Supports Double dose math & English Extra help labs Common college preparatory or high school readiness curricula Organizational Supports Inter-disciplinary and subject area common collaborative work time Weekly Student Success data review meetings On-site school transformation facilitator Professional Development Job-embedded coaching - Math and English instructional coaches Professional learning community Professional development linked to grade/subject specific instructional practice Professional development linked to building a college and career readiness school/classroom culture Data Supports Easy access to student data on Early Warning Indicators Formative assessment tied to national and state standards Weekly data reports demonstrating students progress toward college and career readiness Teacher Team (4 teachers) 75-90 students Student Supports Whole-school attendance, positive behavior, college-going culture Strengthening student resiliency, social-emotional skills Multi-tiered Systems of Support Intervention Model Second shift of adults (Success Mentors) to provide targeted academic and socio-emotional supports Case Managed Supports for high needs students Interventions to address early warning indicators of Attendance Behavior Course Performance

Using ESSA and Perkins To meet the challenges the remain we need to combine evidence- based practice with innovation In areas of economic and social isolation one of the greatest assets is the young people of the community -- need to use high school as an engine of economic development and social integration

Things to consider to help achieve equity with ESSA EVERYONE GRADUATES CENTER initiatives National Center for Student Attendance and Success (MBK Success Mentor Initiative-addressing chronic absenteeism) Next Generation Indicator and Response Systems -- extending early warning systems to college readiness and persistence The Great American 21st Century High School Campaign (coming attraction) For more info- www.every1graduates.org and www.diplomasnow.org

THE WORK THAT REMAINS IS ESSENTIAL, HARD, AND DOABLE .

LETS GET TO WORK!