Teaching sustainability… how to get the message across?

2100? 2014

On the Origin of Species (1859) Darwin Phase II? On the Origin of Species (1859) Challenged the contemporary (religious based) understanding of the Human-Earth Relationship and the contemporary economic paradigm. Today, most of us accept we belong to a species but that the combined activities of that species can influence how the Earth functions also challenges the contemprory understanding of the human-earth relationship (AND the contemporary economic paradigm) Today, scientists are struggling with getting acceptance for the scientific evidence for climate change (similar to Darwin) What we often don’t realize in our zealor to explain and communicate climate change is that the real message to society is much much larger: That human societies not only have the capacity but they are changing the way the whole Earth works in ways that – ultimately – challenge the continued development and existence of human societies And the evidence is both strong and convicincing!

No umbilical cord!! ”logik for dværghøns”? MDG Rio+20 There is a limit to the supply of critical resources and services necessary for the development of human societies!

Is Sustainability still possible? Understanding ”Sustainability”… Recent advances in Earth System understanding gives us the environmental definition (supply and demand)! Brundtland Report (1987) recognised that sustainability is comprised of economic, environmental and social components – But they gave no definition of the environmental and social

or accelerated sharply The changing human enterprise, from 1750 to 2000 Note the start of the ’Great Acceleration’ around 1950, when many activities began or accelerated sharply Vand: 14.000 Empire State Buildings hver dag! > 70% til landbrug! Steffen et al. 2004 Steffen et al 2004

”Business as usual is dead!” Lord Nicholas Stern, 2009 Responses of the Earth System to the accelerating human enterprise. Root cause = demand for resources approaching supply! Typical economist to focus on business - definitely true this changes the game for business but it changes the game with respect to much more than business! It also changes the game for science and the role of science. Firstly, underscores that the contnued survival and development of human societies is absolutely dependent upon wise use of scientific knowledge (and I don’t just mean technological development!) Secondly, it means we can use our science for society differently that we have done in the past – pig’s ear – proactively! A first example: Steffen et al 2004 ”Business as usual is dead!” Lord Nicholas Stern, 2009 Steffen et al. 2004

The greatest challenge of the 21st Century: Acknowledging that the planet’s resources are limited and the development of mechanisms to share these resources among 9 billion people! Climate is only a proxy for a much larger challenge.… 8 8

Population is NOT the problem! Global goal: ”2o” (1-2 t CO2 /person i 2050) EU goal: 80-95% reduction in emissions by 2050 (in relation to 1990). Population is NOT the problem!

What does that mean for Denmark? 1990 emission sources: 59% heat and electricity 16% transport 16% agriculture 7% open environment 2% NS oil and gas In order to reach 80%, agriculture and transport HAVE to be addressed!!

Planetary Boundaries: Exploring the safe operating space for humanity in the Anthropocene (Nature, 461 : 472 – 475, Sept 24 - 2009)

The Resilience of the Earth System

Humanity’s 12,000 years of grace

Biogeochemical loading: Global N & P Cycles Enhedens navn Climate Change Ozone depletion Atmospheric Aerosol Loading Biogeochemical loading: Global N & P Cycles Planetary Boundaries Ocean acidification Rate of Biodiversity Loss Global Freshwater Use Land System Change Chemical Pollution Sted og dato

? ? ? ? ? ? Climate Change Ozone depletion Phosphorus flow Enhedens navn Climate Change Ozone depletion ? Phosphorus flow Latest data Atmospheric aerosol load ? ? 90-00 ? Nitrogen flow Ocean acidity 70-80 ? 50-60 Biodiversity loss Freshwater consumption ? Pre- Ind. Agricultural land use Chemical pollution Sted og dato

For the first time in human history, the demand for some essential natural resources and services is beginning to exceed supply ”Environment” can no longer be regarded as being distinct from societies (economic) interests (natural resources = currency) Environmentally sustainable development can only be based on more efficient resource use and/or the development of alternatives for resources where supply cannot meet demand. Sustainability Science Centre 29-07-2018

”Sustainability” anno 1987 economic environment environmental social

Sustainability anno 2014 environment environmental social economic

PBs establish a new ”global spec” for world food production Stay within 350 ppm, an agricultural system that goes from being a source to a global sink Essentially a green revolution on current cropland (expansion from 12 % to 15 %) Keep global consumptive use of blue water < 4000 km3/yr, we are at 2,600 km3/yr today and rushing fast towards 4000 km3/yr Reduce to 25 % of current N extraction from atmosphere Not increase P inflow to oceans Reduce loss of biodiversity to < 10 E/MSY from current 100-1000 E/MSY

Putting it all in perspective: The Earth was formed about 4.7 billion years ago Our species in its present form has been on Earth for about 250,000 years… About 10,000 generations… Most generations lived in caves… 20 20

Over the past two generations, we have realised that the Earth functions as a SYSTEM And there are surprising interactions between humans and ALL components of the Earth System We are the fourth generation since the burden of transporting goods and people shifted from animal power to mechanical power. We are only the second generation to enjoy automotive personal mobility. 21 21

Not for the sake of the ”climate” or ”nature” but for our own! That knowledge gives both the POWER and the RESPONSIBITY to change and to manage the Human-Earth Relationship But it is our generation that is the first … to have the sheer scale of numbers and intensity of economic activity … that our presence on this planet is starting to have a significant impact on the planet's total ecosystems. We are the first generation to have the intelligence and imagination to understand the collective impact. We are the first generation to have the opportunity to start to redefine our relationship with the planet, … to move it from consumption and exploitation …towards sustainability. Not for the sake of the ”climate” or ”nature” but for our own! 22 22