Negotiating with Protesters: New Challenges for Peacekeeping Dragana Vidovic, PhD Student, University of Essex Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, Prof, University of Essex and PRIO MOTIVATION RESULTS PEACEKEEPING IMPLICATIONS KEY INSIGHTS Mass scale protests more common in autocracies, often emerge despite high levels of repression. nonviolent campaign …civilian-led, nonviolent, coordinated and purposive actions, initiated by unarmed persons who have chosen to engage in an active struggle against the state (Day et. al, 2014, p.1). Why do protests emerge in some states and not others? Does ethnic diversity present a barrier for nonviolent civil resistance campaigns (NVC)? Ethnically diverse and autocratic states are less likely to see nonviolent campaign onsets than homogenous autocracies. Ethnic cleavages facilitate sectarian mobilization, undermine nonviolent broad collective action. Protests in ethnically diverse autocracies likely to turn violent (ex. Syria, Ukraine, India). What explains negative effects of ethnicity on nonviolent collective action (lack of trust, low cross-ethnic interaction and cooperation)? Loyalty shifts following NVCs (security forces and elites), and security issues. Should UN intervene in cases where potentials for violence escalation are high like it was in the case of Syria? Who should be at the peace talk table to end conflicts such as Syria? To what extend are/should be civil resistance campaigners, civil society actors included? Non-state actors impact peace processes Cooperation and coordination more difficult in diverse societies under autocratic rule Violent tactics often used to gain attention and a place at a bargaining table Who gets excluded from a bargaining table? Overcoming ethnic divisions—important aspect of peacekeeping? METHODS AND MATERIALS NAVCO 2.0 dataset: 108 nonviolent campaign onsets, annual data on more than 45 variables, 1945-2006 (Chenoweth & Lewis, 2013). Logistic regression to estimate the likelihood of the onset of nonviolent campaign in a country/year. REFERENCES Amnesty International (2013). A Map of Non-Violent Activism in Syria. https://www.amnesty.org.uk/blogs/campaigns/map-non-violent-activism-syria Chenoweth, E., & Lewis, O. A. (2013). Unpacking nonviolent campaigns. Introducing the NAVCO 2.0 dataset. Journal of Peace Research, 50(3), 415-423. http://jpr.sagepub.com/content/50/3/415.full.pdf+html Lock, K. (2016). Women in the Syrian Peace Process: More Than a Seat at the Table?. United Nations University (UNU-MERIT). http://www.merit.unu.edu/women-in-the-syrian-peace-process-more-than-a-seat-at-the-table/ Putnam, R. D. (2007). E pluribus unum: Diversity and community in the twenty‐first century. The 2006 Johan Skytte Prize Lecture. Scandinavian political studies, 30(2), 137-174. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-9477.2007.00176.x/full CONTACT Dragana Vidović -- PhD Candidate Department of Government University of Essex Wivenhoe Park Colchester, Essex CO4 3SQ, UK dvidov@essex.ac.uk Figure 1. Onset of Nonviolent Campaigns (NVCs)/Country Year