Improvement Selection: IENG 451 / 452 IENG 451 - Lecture 12 Improvement Selection: Developing Criteria, Pair-wise Ranking, FMEA 7/29/2018 IENG 451 Operational Strategies (c) 2016 D.H. Jensen

Improvement: Selection Criteria At some point in every project, the set of potential improvement solutions must be narrowed. Criteria must be developed to do this: CTQs must be addressed The “triple constraint” that must be considered in every project forms additional criteria that must be considered: Time Budget Functionality (objectives of the project) Other criteria should be addressed, too, before beginning the down-select process: Safety Requirements Regulatory Requirements Strategic Alignment of the Project Ethics of the Project Politics of the Project … and more! 7/29/2018 IENG 451 Operational Strategies

IENG 451 Operational Strategies Developing Criteria Some questions to help determine selection criteria: What will the best solution(s) look like? What are the barriers to implementation? What types of solutions are the cheapest to implement? Which types of solutions will be the most dramatic or visible? Which types of solutions will show fastest results? Which types of solutions will deliver the greatest return for the investment? Which types of solutions will be easiest to implement ? (least resistance) 7/29/2018 IENG 451 Operational Strategies

IENG 451 Operational Strategies Down-Select Process (Down-selecting the criteria may be necessary, too) The goal is to come up with a tractable solution selection process. Steps: Remove non-starters from the list – consider: Organizational fit Management commitment Organizational values and strategic factors Operating / management systems Determine Goal Impact for remaining solutions Standalone Solutions – must be completely independent of other solutions Coupled Solutions – can attain desired performance working with other solns Additive Solutions – improve overall performance on top of other solutions Narrow the list Multi-voting CDAM (Combine, Delete, Add, Modify) Create a Selection (Decision) Matrix, Pair-Wise Ranking or FMEA and evaluate alternatives 7/29/2018 IENG 451 Operational Strategies

Decision (Solution Selection) Matrix Decision Matrix is used to prioritize semi-quantitatively. Steps: Identify the items to be compared: List on the left side in the matrix Review criteria for comparison Estimate the relative Weights of the criteria with the entire group Create criteria and weights for comparison List the Criteria on the top of each column on the matrix List the Weights below each criterion in the matrix Score each option on every criterion Use team opinion to score each solution Record the result in each cell Compute the Weighted Total for each option Weighted Total = Sum of the Weight * Score on all criteria Interpret results after all comparisons are complete Higher weighted totals are preferred options Beware of weighted totals that are very close, though (resolution problem!) 7/29/2018 IENG 451 Operational Strategies

Decision Matrix Example Available from the Materials Page: Decision Matrix Process:   Process Impact Time Impact Cost / Benefit Criterion A Criterion B Criterion C Weighted Total Weight  5 3  4  2  1  Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option 4 7/29/2018 IENG 451 Operational Strategies

IENG 451 Operational Strategies Pairwise Ranking Pair-wise Ranking is used to prioritize qualitatively. Steps: Identify the items to be compared: List on a white board for everyone to see Label the options (letters or numbers) for identification in the matrix Create a square matrix for comparison Label both the rows and columns with the identifiers for each option Block out the diagonal and the lower triangular portion of the matrix Review criteria for comparison … for clarity of the entire group Compare each option with every other option Use voting to select the better solution in head-to-head comparison Use only the top triangular portion to avoid duplication of comparisons Record the results in the cell List the winner and the winning vote tally Interpret results after all comparisons are complete Listing the winning vote tallies often emphasizes the strong differences Higher winning vote tallies prioritize the options (highest to lowest) 7/29/2018 IENG 451 Operational Strategies

Pairwise Ranking Example Comparing A to B: B wins 4 to 2 Comparing A to C: A wins 4 to 2 Comparing A to D: D wins 5 to 1 Comparing B to C: B wins 6 to 0 Comparing B to D: B wins 5 to 1 Comparing C to D: C wins 6 to 0 (Sometimes have consistency problems! A beats C, and D beats A, but C beats D?) Overall: B-15, C-6, D-5, A-4 So prefer B greatly then prefer C ... AHP (similar process) estimates consistency issue severity A B C D B 4 A 4 D 5 B 6 B 5 C 6 7/29/2018 IENG 451 Operational Strategies

IENG 451 Operational Strategies FMEA An acronym for Failure Modes and Effects Analysis. The purpose of an FMEA is to provide a structured method to: Identify the ways in which the system can fail Estimate the risk of specific failure mechanisms Prioritize the actions necessary to reduce or eliminate the risks Generate a plan for validating the choice of Improvement Stage solution(s) FMEA may be used in other stages of the project. Examples: To understand the risks of the project in the Define Stage To prioritize KPIVs for the Measurement Stage To understand the solution implementation risks in the Analyze Stage To assess the effectiveness of the plan for the Control Stage. 7/29/2018 IENG 451 Operational Strategies

IENG 451 Operational Strategies FMEA Process Steps Review the process, service, or product to identify the steps, stages or components Brainstorm the possible failure modes for each step/stage Identify the potential effects for each failure mode Assign severity ratings and likelihood of each occurrence Severity is rated 1 – 10, a rating of 10 is the most severe Likelihood is rated 1 – 10, with a 10 being the most likely to occur List current monitoring /controls for each failure, estimate a detectability rating Detectability is rated 1 – 10, a rating of 10 being the least likely to be detected in current controls Calculate the Risk Priority Number (RPN) for each failure RPN = Severity x Likelihood x Detectability Prioritize the failure modes using the RPNs Sort high to low (Pareto Order) Plan to reduce or eliminate risk associated with high priority failure modes Identify potential / root causes Develop Preventative Action Plans to reduce or eliminate root causes before occurrence Develop Contingent Action Plans to limit damage caused after occurrence Implement plans and document Re-compute RPNs and assess for implementation readiness 7/29/2018 IENG 451 Operational Strategies

FMEA Example Spreadsheet Available from the Materials Page: Failure Mode and Effects Analysis Process:   Prepared by: Process Step Potential Failure Mode Potential Failure Effect Severity (1 - 10) Potential Cause Probability of Occurrence (1 - 10) Current Controls Detectability (10 - 1) RPN 7/29/2018 IENG 451 Operational Strategies

IENG 451 Operational Strategies Questions & Issues Exam Review is next class On-Campus exam is next Thursday at LAB (providing a 2 hour exam period!) Distance / On-line exam instructions were covered earlier in term (see Lecture 01) E-mail instructor for ADA accommodations 7/29/2018 IENG 451 Operational Strategies (c) 2016 D.H. Jensen