BACKGROUND FOR THE 2011 HURRICANE SEASON JUNE 1 -- DECEMBER 31, 2011 Supercourse lectures on Hurricanes HURRICANE EARL Hurricanes    Part I  (in Spanish) Part II  (in Spanish)   Part III   (in Spanish) Hurricane Rita  Hurricane     (In Spanish)      (In Chinese)   Attribution of Recent Increases in Atlantic Hurricane Activity  “BAD” HURRICANES: 1988-2008 TO EVACUATE OR NOT TO EVACUATE FOR HURRICANES. Part I    Part II Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA

SEVERE WINDSTORMS: HURRICANES In the Atlantic, Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Eastern Pacific areas cyclonic tropical storms with well-formed central “eyes” and with wind speeds above 74 mph are referred to as HURRICANES.

THE NAMES FOR 2011’S HURRICANES THE NAMES WILL BE THE SAME AS IN 2005, EXCEPT 5 (E.G, DENNIS, KATRINA, RITA, STAN, and WILMA) THAT WERE RETIRED

NAMES:ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES: 2011 ARIENE BRET CINDY EMILY FRANKLIN GERT

NAMES: ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES: 2011 HARVEY IRENE JOSE KATIA LEE MARIA

NAMES: ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES: 2011 NATE OPHELIA PHILIPPE RINA SEAN TAMMY VINCE WHITNEY

DEVELOPING A REALISTIC DISASTER SCENARIO FOR A COMMUNITY FACING SEVERE WINDSTORMS

SEVERE WINDSTORM RISK REDUCTION SEVERE WINDSTORMS INVENTORY VULNERABILITY LOCATION RISK ASSESSMENT ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK RISK SEVERE WINDSTORM RISK REDUCTION DATA BASES AND INFORMATION PREVENTION/MITIGATION PREPAREDNESS EMERGENCY RESPONSE RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION EDUCATIONAL SURGES POLICY OPTIONS Wind profile Storm Hazards: Wind pressure Surge Rain Flood Waves Salt water Missiles Tornadoes Gradient Wind Ocean COMMUNITY

A POLICY FRAMEWORK RISK ASSESSMENT POLICY ASSESSMENT EXPECTED LOSS VULNERABILITY EXPOSURE EVENT POLICY ASSESSMENT COST BENEFIT CONSEQUENCES SEVERE WIND-STORMS EXPECTED LOSS POLICY ADOPTION

THE KEYS: 1) KNOW YOUR REGION’S METEOROLOGICAL HISTORY, 2) KNOW YOUR COMMUNITY

1325 HURRICANE PATHS: 1851-2004 EACH HURRICANE HAS PREDICTABLE PHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS THAT CAN BE USED TO DEVELOP DISASTER SCENARIOS WITHIN A REALISTIC POLICY FRAMEWORK.

FACTORS THAT ENHANCE DESTRUCTIVENESS Very low pressure in the “eye” (increases the height of storm surge and likelihood that wind will lift roofs off buildings and pop out windows after landfall)

FACTORS THAT ENHANCE DESTRUCTIVENESS Low vertical wind shear along the path of the storm (maintains storm’s cohesiveness and rotation)

FACTORS THAT ENHANCE DESTRUCTIVENESS A long path passing through warm water and a slow rate of travel (increases the likelihood that the storm will grow in strength and become a RAINMAKER after landfall)

FACTORS THAT ENHANCE DESTRUCTIVENESS Wind field and rain bands extending 500 km or more from the “eye” (increases area of potential wind damage, flooding, landslides, and need for evacuation).

FACTORS THAT ENHANCE DESTRUCTIVENESS Landfall in rain-saturated areas having steep slopes (increases likelihood of landslides (e.g., mudflows))

FACTORS THAT ENHANCE DESTRUCTIVENESS Landfall in populated areas that are unprepared: increases the likelihood of inadequate warning, inadequate evacuation, inadequate wind engineering (e.g., roof systems, “safe rooms”), inadequate safe havens, and inadequate INSURANCE.

An element’s vulnerability (fragility) is the result of a community’s actions or nature’s actions that change the destructiveness of the storm