Grp 4 Polls?? * James Somesh Yongjia.

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Presentation transcript:

Grp 4 Polls?? * James Somesh Yongjia

Overview HOW TO READ A POLL. Answers to Online Poll Story behind the photograph Dewey presidency inevitable’ predicted by polls

ONLINE POLL Looks something like this

What Do YOU Think? Q1

What Do YOU Think? Q2

What Do YOU Think? Q3

What Do YOU Think? Q4

What Do YOU Think? Q5

Answer Revealed Random Sample Q1 Online poll: Ppl take part voluntarily. Some ppl do not know about the poll, and others who know about it may not participate. => a lot of ppl not involved in poll VS particpants chosen at random (equal chance of being selected)

Answer Revealed Self-selected Sample Q1 Online poll: Ppl take part voluntarily. Some ppl do not know about the poll, and others who know about it may not participate. => a lot of ppl not involved in poll VS particpants chosen at random

Answer Revealed Q1 BIAS More motivated response Can vote more than once Online poll: Ppl take part voluntarily. Some ppl do not know about the poll, and others who know about it may not participate. => a lot of ppl not involved in poll VS particpants chosen at random

Answer Revealed MOE Q2 MoE: for Q2-4

Answer Revealed MoE (Margin of Error) Q2 MoE: for Q2-4

QUESTION For each of the following given percentage of supporters in the sample, deduce the CI. MOE Percentage of supporters for R CI +-3% 51% (48%-54%) +-1% 20% (19%-21%) +-10% 1% (???????) ?????? == (go and redo)

Answer Revealed Q3 R VS D (49%-55%) VS (45%-51%)

Answer Revealed OBVIOUS NO RIGHT? Q4

BEFORE: Answer Revealed 49% 52% 55% Q4 AFTER: 48% 51% 54%

Confidence Interval Basically how confident you are. 90%? 10%?

Answer Revealed Q5 Hahahaha. Nice try!!!

Comparing Polls

Comparing Polls Even when individual polls do not show clear results, consensus of all polls may do so Vested interest (BIAS!) of newspapers/networks to report only on polls they have sponsored

Comparing Polls If one poll varies from others by more than *MoE => probably unreliable If one poll’s results within MoE of other polls => probably reliable *Margin of Error

Checklist of questions Scientific or self- selected? Poll’s MoE? Other polls on same issue

The infamous picture (1948 US elections) Who is that? What happened? The link??? "Dewey Defeats Truman" incorrect headline on the front page of the Chicago Daily Tribune the day after incumbent US President, Harry S. Truman, won an upset victory over Republican challenger Thomas E. Dewey, in the 1948 presidential election. famously held up by Truman at a public appearance following his successful election, smiling triumphantly at the error. THE LINK: online polls can be misleading

SO BASICALLY, THE LOSER CAN LOOK LIKE THEY ARE THE WINNER.

RETEST DISAGREE DISAGREE DISAGREE DISAGREE DISAGREE

TAKE HOME MESSAGE Do not believe everything you hear or see when it comes to polls!