Demographic Concepts & Terms

https://www. youtube. com/watch https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QsBT5EQt348 Overpopulation – The Human Explosion Explained, 2:04

Birth Rate Birth Rate = (Births ÷ Population) x 1,000 Example: if 1,038,000 babies were born Divided by 31,850,000 total population x 1,000 = 32.59 births per 1,000 Canada's birth rate is 10.28 births per 1,000

Highest/Lowest Birth Rates Countries with the highest rates = Niger (49.66), Angola (45.98), Chad (45.74) Countries with lowest rates = Monaco (6.72), Japan (8.07), Singapore (8.10)

In 1963 the world birth rate was 36, it dropped to 19 by 2014 Canada's birth rate = 10.3 (2016) China 12.4 U.S.A. 12.5 India 19.3 Burundi 41.7 Mali 44.4

Canada's teenage birth rate fell dramatically (35. 7 to 13 Canada's teenage birth rate fell dramatically (35.7 to 13.6 per 1,000) during the last two decades But in 2004 it was 7X higher than Sweden's, (lowest teenage birth rates of all developed countries). U.S. teens are 2.5 times as likely to give birth as compared to teens in Canada

U.S. Teenage* Birth Rates 2014 http://www.hhs.gov/ash/oah/adolescent-health-topics/reproductive-health/teen-pregnancy/trends.html Less than 20 20 – 29.9 30 – 39.9 *Teenage = 15 - 19

How can birth rates sometimes be misleading figures? Birth rate is crude which means it applies to a whole population, taking no account of gender or age Males can’t give birth and neither can a woman before and after certain ages. More accurate measure of a country’s fertility is the Fertility Rate Fertility Rate = the number of births per 1,000 woman aged 15-49 per year https://kisialevelgeography.wordpress.com/as-population/

Total Fertility Rate (Number of births ÷ number of woman aged 15 to 45) x 30 The average number of births per woman

Canadian Fertility Rate Since 2003, the total fertility rate has seen a slight upward trend Partly due to older women having more kids Canada’s fertility rate is 1.6 kids per woman Nunavut, the Northwest Territories and Saskatchewan had the highest fertility rates in the country, with more than 2 children per woman on average. In contrast, British Columbia had the lowest fertility rate of the country.

Replacement-level Fertility : 2.1 : the level of fertility at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next To achieve this, women need to have an average of 2.1 children http://www.economist.com/node/14743589

Death Rate Death Rate = (Deaths ÷ Population) x 1,000 Example: 294,000 people died divided by 31,850,000 total population X 1,000 = 9.23 per 1,000 Canada’s Death Rate = 8.31 per 1,000 http://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2066rank.html

Can you guess the top 10 causes of death in Canada?

How can death rates sometimes be misleading? Death rate should tell you how developed a country is (e.g. more deaths = less developed) However, it can get skewed by age structures: In Brazil the death rate is 6/1000 but the UK is 9/1000 Yet life expectancy is 80 in the UK compared with 70 in Brazil and the UK is more developed. This skew is because Brazil has a much younger population , so less people per 1000 die per year. What is a better measure of mortality in a country? https://kisialevelgeography.wordpress.com/as-population/

Different Ways of Measuring Death Maternal mortality rate: number of maternal deaths per 100,000 live births (death of a woman while pregnant or within 42 days of termination of pregnancy) Infant mortality rate: deaths of children less than 1 year old per 1000 live births Child mortality rate: number of deaths of children less than 5 years old per 1000 live births

Global Infant Mortality Rates

Natural Increase Rate How much population is changing just from births/deaths (Births – Deaths ÷ Total Population) x 100 1,038,000 – 594,000 x 100 = 1.39% 31,850,000

Emigration Rate (Emigrants ÷ Total population) x 1,000 Example: 86,000 people left the country divided by 31,850,000 total population = 2.70 per 1,000

Immigration Rate (Immigrants ÷ Total population) x 1,000 Example: 53,000 people moved to the country divided by 31,850,000 total population = 1.66 per 1,000

From July 2015 to July 2016, a total of 320,932 new immigrants landed in the country as permanent residents. That is an increase of more than one third over the previous year, when 240,844 immigrants came to Canada This is the fastest growth in nearly three decades.

Net Migration Rate the difference between the number of persons entering and leaving a country during the year, per 1,000 persons (Immigrants – Emigrants ÷ Total Population) x 1,000 Top two countries with the lowest net migration rates: Micronesia = -20.93 per 1,000 Syria = -19.79 per 1,000 Why Micronesia? In 1986 they signed an agreement with the USA allowing its citizens to migrate freely to the United States

Net migration rates for 2016 positive (blue), negative (orange), stable (green), and no data (grey)

Population Growth Rate (Births – Deaths) + (Immigration – Emigration) x 100 Total Population In 2015 Canada = .74% China = .43% USA = .81% India = 1.19% Japan = -.19% South Sudan 4% (highest) Ukraine -1% (lowest)

https://www. youtube. com/watch https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3nnbd1b_tKQ Which Countries Have The Fastest Growing Populations?, 3:50 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qn9DDsxfpCA Which Countries Have Shrinking Populations?, 4:19

Life Expectancy Average lifespan, at birth, of a human being Highest = Japan (83.7), Switzerland (83.4), Singapore (83.1) Canada = 82.2 (ranked 12th) Lowest = Central African Republic (52.5), Angola (52.4), Sierra Leone (52.1)

Life Expectancy Provinces, Territories and Countries http://www.conferenceboard.ca/hcp/provincial/health/life.aspx

Why is life expectancy in the territories so low? A child born today in Nunavut is expected to live about 10 years less than a child born in British Columbia. poor socio-economic conditions higher levels of long-term unemployment lower proportions of high school and university graduates highest rates of smoking, obesity, and substance abuse  accidents and injuries in the territories can claim a lot more lives because the distance to care is often much greater 

Population Pyramid http://populationpyramid.net/ Click to see the population pyramid of any country in any modern year Public Health Agency of Canada http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/seniors-aines/publications/public/various-varies/papier-fed-paper/fedreport1-eng.php

Major stages of population pyramids

Dependency Load Percentage of a country’s population under age 15 and over age 64 that must be supported by the independent, working population

Old Age-dependency ratio By 2050 It will exceed 70% in Italy, Spain and Japan It will remain below 40% in Denmark, Iceland, Luxembourg, Mexico, Turkey and the United States Caused by higher life expectancy and lower fertility rates

Youth-dependency ratio 2005 31% in Italy and Japan 70% or more in Turkey and Mexico Forecast small fall in the youth dependency ratio Lower public expenditures in education Expect higher spending towards the elderly

Rule of 70 Estimating how long it would take for a country’s population to double Divide 70 by the country’s population growth rate Example: A country that is growing at 2.3% per year will double its population in 30 years. 70 / 2.3 = 30

Crash Course video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E8dkWQVFAoA Crash Course on Human Population Growth – 10:53

Reflection on Demographics Should the citizens of the fast growing countries have, as a basic human right, the opportunity to migrate to less densely settled countries? Are the governments of ‘overpopulated’ countries justified in legally requiring small families? In requiring involuntary sterilization?