Biodiversity and climate change in relation to the Natura 2000 network Alison Campbell UNEP-WCMC 12th June 2009 United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre

Background The Natura 2000 network is at the heart of biodiversity and conservation policy in the European Union Climate change impacts are likely to seriously challenge the objective of the Natura 2000 network: to halt the decline of biodiversity within the EU by the year 2010 Knowledge of these impacts will be important for developing climate change adaptation policy in the EU Three main tasks: 1. Literature review of CC impacts on EU species 2. Vulnerability assessment of species of “Community Interest” under changing climate 3. Application of these results to the Natura 2000 network (UNEP-WCMC)

Task 3: Objectives Demonstrate which Natura 2000 sites are projected to be faced with the largest temperature changes Identify which regions and countries have a large number of species identifed as vulnerable to climate change in their Natura 2000 sites Produce policy relevant outputs 3

Brief methodology Vulnerability scores for 212 species of Community Interest (assessed in Task 2) Linked to spatial data for over 24,000 Natura 2000 sites 2 parts: Natura 2000 sites categorised by coarse scale projected temperature changes across regions (number of sites and area) A2 and B1 scenarios (IPCC) HadCM3 for the three time slices 2011-2030, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 Regions and countries in which Natura 2000 sites contain highly vulnerable species of Community interest identified Link vulnerability data to spatial Natura 2000 site data Separate by taxon (birds, amphibans, reptiles, butterfly, plants), biogeographic region and country Identify species of particular concern 4

Projected temperature changes across Natura 2000 sites, and coarse temperature grids containing number of sites (Scenario A2 between 2011 & 2065) 3,150 sites 2-3 °C 7 sites 3-4°C Increases of > 2°C projected for 12% Natura 2000 sites only 5% projected to see increases < 1°C Also included area. The report shows changes across the scenarios and time scales- I have just picked out one example with a relatively short term and more extreme scenario. This part was for context only? 5

Species of Community Interest: Birds Over half of assessed bird species (149 species) in top three categories of vulnerability (very high and above) 2077-2099 Highest levels of vulnerability in the Natura 2000 sites of the Mediterranean region (51% in top 3 categories) Lowest levels of vulnerability in the Boreal region (33%) These are examples of the kind of data that you can pull out from these analyses. Also have these results by country, Italy have a lot of species... Above: output of vulnerability assessment (B1 scenario) Right: linked to biogeographic region

Vulnerability of assessed amphibian, reptile, butterfly and plant species by country under the A2 scenario by 2050 Results also presented by biogeographic region and country for each taxon individually under the following scenarios: 7

Species rated as highly vulnerable to climate change that only occur in a small number of Natura 2000 sites can also be identified 8

Summary Interim report Shows that temperature changes will be felt across the majority of Natura 2000 sites Suggests that a significant number of species of Community Interest are vulnerable to climate change Shows the numbers of species that are vulnerable to climate change across Natura 2000 sites on a regional basis and across taxa Identifies particularly vulnerable species Implications for adaptation policy Could be used for coarser scale analyses (sub-regional scale and individual site) 9

A world where biodiversity counts www.unep-wcmc.org 10