VERIFICATIONS - 78 - Rain = yes - CLD: 3.5/10 - THUN PA = ??

NAM MODEL – sfc forecast Valid at 8 p.m. YESTERDAY (00z)

NAM MODEL – 500mb fcst. Valid at 8 p.m. YEST(00z) Trough

6 a.m. (10z) YESTERDAY

THUNDER TODAY ….. ARE YOU KIDDING ME ?!?!?!? LIFTED INDEX Valid 8 P.M. (00z) YEST

CAPE (NAM) Valid 2 P.M. (18z) yesterday

CAPE (GFS) Valid 2 P.M. (18Z) yesterday

SVR RPTS

Penn State Weather Camps Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines Sat I – Sat II – Sat III – Sat WV - NWS - NHC – Radar - Radar sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 – sfc map 3

Radar imagery from Slidell and Lake Charles, Louisiana along with surface synoptic data, particularly those from Calcasieu Pass Louisiana, indicate that the center of Cindy crossed the coast between Cameron Louisiana and Port Arthur Texas an hour or two ago. The observations from Calcasieu indicate that the intensity is now around 35 kt. Now that the center is inland, steady weakening will occur and the system should become a depression later today, and be reduced to a post-tropical remnant low tonight. In 2-3 days, or sooner, the remnant low of Cindy should become absorbed into a frontal zone over the eastern United States.

The initial motion is a little faster, and is about 360/10 kt The initial motion is a little faster, and is about 360/10 kt. Cindy should continue to move through a break in the subtropical ridge today, and gradually turn toward the northeast and east-northeast as it encounters mid-level westerly flow over the next couple of days. The official track forecast lies between the GFS and ECMWF predictions. Although Cindy is weakening, it will continue to produce heavy rainfall over portions of the northern Gulf Coast and the southeastern and eastern United States, along with the potential for life-threatening flash flooding in some locations

NAM MODEL – 4 panel fcst. Valid at 8 p.m. (00z) TODAY

NAM MODEL – 4 panel fcst. Valid at 8 p.m. (00z) TODAY Trough Trough

NAM MODEL – 4 panel fcst. Valid at 8 p.m. (00z) TODAY

6 a.m. (10z) TODAY

THUNDER TODAY ….. ARE YOU KIDDING ME ?!?!?!? LIFTED INDEX Valid 8 P.M. TODAY (00z)

CAPE (NAM) Valid 8 P.M. (00z)

CAPE (ECMWF) Valid 8 P.M. (00z)

MOS – Model Output S … Accu Friends Wx Channel Friends NWS Friends E-WALL

Penn State Weather Camps Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines Sat I – Sat II – Sat III – Sat WV - NWS - NHC – Radar - Radar sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 – sfc map 3

SURFACE PRESSURE ? ? ? ? ?

SURFACE PRESSURE

Warm Sector vs. Cool Sector

Know what to expect! = Climo. NH RH NL RL Know what to expect! = Climo.