Clean Air for Europe Revision of the NECD TFIAM, 17-19 May 2006, Roma Eduard Dame DG ENV,Unit C5

New Unit C5 (1) Energy &Environment Mission: Connect and integrate energy and environment policies Deliver projections, scenario’s, CBA’s on atmospheric emissions for IA’s related to legislative proposals and communications Responsible for the implementation and the revision of the National Emission Ceilings Directive

New Unit C5 Head of Unit ff: Matti Vainio Staff members (in alphabetical order): Scott Brockett Eduard Dame Jacques Delsalle Erik Tang Stefaan Vergote Andre Zuber ?, ?, ? Secretary: Sarah Asmanis de Schacht

Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution Single directive for ambient air quality legislation Revision of the National Emission Ceilings Directive Integrating air quality into other policy area’s: Energy Smaller combustion plants VOC emissions at fuel stations Transport Aviation Shipping Agriculture

Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution Objective: Costs: 7.1 bnEuro/year

Air Quality Directive Legislative proposal attached to TS: Simplification of air quality legislation Strengthening implementation Modernising monitoring and reporting Control of human exposure to PM2.5 Proposal now under discussion in Council and EP. Possibly political agreement at Environment Council of June 2006.

Political context of NECD-revision (1) TS on Air Pollution states: NECD-proposal will be based on same level of ambition as TS Detailed IA is needed Integrated approach to nitrogen management will be respected Ceilings for PM will be considered Simplified implementation and reporting provisions will be considered

Political context (2) Council Conclusions of 9 March 2006: Welcomes a proposal as soon as possible Experiences and difficulties faced by the MS during implementation should be taken into account Proposal should be based on a mix of national, Community and international measures EP has not finalized their opinion yet: Hearing at 11 May 2006 Environment Commission votes at 12 June 2006 The Plenary votes at 4 July 2006

Articles 9 – 10 of NECD Review in 2004 and 2008 Take on board all elements of article 9 Evaluation of emission ceilings for the EU as a whole CBA - Least possible uncertainty Modification of the NEC’s and/or interim environmental objectives Proposals for further emission reduction as well

The work to be done ……..

Work plan Realistically, directive proposal in summer 2007 Some studies are still ongoing Modelling work to start after new baseline has been developed – September 2006 NECPI Working Group meets 6 times in 2006 and 2 times in 2007. Regular Feedback from NECPI to CAFE SG

Ongoing studies / contracts Integrated assessment modelling to revise the NECD (IIASA) Cost-Benefit Analysis (AEA Technology) Energy modelling PRIMES (NTUA) Estimation of emissions of PM2.5 in EU-25 (TNO) Integrated measures to reduce NH3 emissions (Alterra) Preparation of TREMOVE and policy scenario’s (CU Leuven and AU Thessaloniki) Baseline ship emissions (Entec, Met.NO and IIASA) City Delta III project (JRC/IES) Optimal control area’s & flexibility within the NECD (TNO)

13 July 2006, 3-4 Oct 2006, 14 Dec 2006, Feb 2007 and May 2007 NEC-PI meetings Input of Member States and stakeholders channeled through NEC-PI 3 meetings held 10 Nov 2005, 1 Feb 2006 and 15 March 2006 5 more meetings to go 13 July 2006, 3-4 Oct 2006, 14 Dec 2006, Feb 2007 and May 2007

Outcome 2th Meeting (1 Feb 2006) Agreement on work plan Information from models Update of energy baseline Methodological issues - 5 meteorological years - baseline & compliance with NECD - Gap closure methodology

Outcome 3th Meeting (15 March 2006) Agricultural baseline Treatment of Transport in IAM Cost-effectiveness and BAT-approaches 2020 target year for emission ceilings (role of interim year 2015 still under discussion) No ceiling for methane (first waits for results from CLTRAP TF on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution) Discussion on MTFR Discussion on sensitivity cases

CAFE Steering Group 2 May 2006 NECD-Baseline development Although the results of PRIMES (2005) match the national NEC-projections for Europe as a whole, some certain differences remain for certain countries Some inconsistencies between national UNFCCC- and NEC-projections

CAFE Steering Group 2 May 2006 NECD-Baseline development (2) Both projections are likely to exceed in 2020 – at EU level – the targets agreed for the first Kyoto commitment period (2008 – 2012) Air pollutant (baseline emissions) are sensitive towards the stringency of the GHG/CO2-target

CAFE Steering Group 2 May 2006 NECD-Baseline development (3) The Commission intends to use the national projections. Further bilateral projections until 13 July 2006. No national projections? Then the national baseline will be based on PRIMES. Any projection for the period 2012 -2020 will be uncertain. Additional information of 4th National Communication could be helpful.

CAFE Steering Group 2 May 2006 NECD-Baseline development (4) National agricultural emissions are consitent with the updated projections made by the CAPRI model for the CAP midterm review. Ammonia emissions are lower than in TS.

Agenda 4th Meeting (13 July 2006) Results of new baseline comparison with previous TS baseline Discussion of City Delta approximation

Agenda 5th Meeting (3/4 Oct 2006) NEC implementation issues - Member State experience - recognising uncertainty in the NECD - sectoral ceilings - contingent ceilings (link to EU measures) - relative ceilings Trading and the results from ongoing study on optimal control areas Discussion on non-technical measures

Agenda 6th Meeting (14 Dec 2006) IAM results – reproduce Thematic Strategies objectives Ships scenario analysis Some sensivity scenario Discuss/revise required sensitivity cases

Agenda 7th and 8th Meeting 7th meeting (Feb 2007) Sensitivity cases Non-technical measures 8th Meeting Final meeting of NECPI Agenda to be confirmed later Focusing on final advice of the Group to the Commission

Revision of EMEP/Corinair Guidebook Revision funded by European Commission Close cooperation between DG ENV- EEA and CLTRAP bodies Draft work plan to be presented at TFEIP in June 2006 Final approval by EB December 2008 Further maintenance by EEA Legal base by comitology

Conclusions TS AIR Thematic Strategy Air Quality Directive: Council Conclusions of 9 March 2006 European Parliament will vote beginning of July Both focus on the need for more source-related more Community legislation Air Quality Directive: Legislative proposal under discussion in Council and Parliament. Probably a political agreement end of June Revision NECD: The work for the revision of the NECD is planned and on track. All pieces of the jig-saw puzzle to be ready in spring 2007.