Energy strategy of Russia up to 2030: Eastern vector

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Presentation transcript:

Energy strategy of Russia up to 2030: Eastern vector Dr. Alexey Gromov Deputy General Director Institute for Energy Strategy Moscow, Russia Joint Symposium August 30 – September 3, 2010 within framework of Baikal Economic Forum

ES – 2030 ENERGY STRATEGY 2030 and its PREDECESSORS IES Conception of the state energy policy in new economic conditions (Ratified by the Government: №26 of 10.09.92) 1992 Decree of the President №472 of 07.08.95 «About the basic directions of the state energy policy» 1995 Fundamentals of the ES - 2010 (Ratified by the Government: №1006 of 13.10.95) ES – 2020 (approved be decree № 1234-r of the Government of the Russian Federation of 28.08.03) 2003 ES – 2030 approved by decree N° 1715-r of the Government of the Russian Federation of 13.11.2009 2009 2

ES-2030: from FORECAST to TARGET MODELING Forecasts and Scenarios IES ES-2020 ES-2030 Target Modeling Forecasts and Scenarios 3

STAGES OF ENERGY STRATEGY 2030 IES STAGES OF ENERGY STRATEGY 2030 1ST STAGE 2ND STAGE 3RD STAGE Growth of national economy and quality of life of the population Share of Energy sector in Economy Overcoming the crisis in the Economy and Energy sector Modernization of Energy sector Increase of power efficiency and energy saving in the Economy and Energy sector Innovative development of Energy sector New oil and gas fields development (Arctic shelf, Eastern Siberia and the Far East) Highly effective use of traditional power resources Switch to the Energy of the Future 2020 2022 2015 2013 2009 2030 4 4

PRINCIPLE of TIME SHIFTING in the ES-2030 (example of electricity production and consumption) IES 2 years 2 years 1 year 1 year Moderate scenario Innovative scenario Moderate scenario Innovative scenario Risks of an exit of scenarios for limits of a base look-ahead field are considered through possible time shifts of termination years of the 1st and 2nd stages of ES-2030 5

ES-2030 in the SYSTEM of STRATEGIC DOCUMENTS IES ES-2030 in the SYSTEM of STRATEGIC DOCUMENTS for the EASTERN SIBERIA and the FAR EAST Conception of the long-term development of the Russian Federation for the year 2020 Long-term forecast of the development of Russian economy for the years 2009-2030 ES-2030 Strategy of socio-economical development of the Far East and Baikal region up to 2025 Strategy of development of Eastern Siberia and the Far East up to 2030 Program of development of oil processing capacity in the regions of Eastern Siberia and the Far East Eastern Gas Program Investment programs of energy companies 6 6

EASTERN VECTOR IN ES-2030: NEW SIDES OF “OLD” TASK IES EASTERN VECTOR IN ES-2030: NEW SIDES OF “OLD” TASK Road Map of implementation of ES-2030 : Eastern vector task №19 «Increase in the share of the Asia-Pacific countries in the structure of the Russian energy export to 16–17%» task №10 «Implementation of a complex of program measures for petrochemistry and gas-chemistry development in the Eastern Siberia and Far East» task № 17 «Extended reproduction and attraction of human resources for development of new areas of the Eastern Siberia and Far East» Eastern vector Key initiatives in the Russian energy sector: Eastern vector Energy infrastructure: development and diversification ESPO pipeline, Eastern Gas Program, petro- and gas-chemistry development Development of oil and gas complexes in Eastern regions of Russia Sakalin, Yakutia, Magadan, Irkutsk and Krasnoyarsk regions Shelf of the East Arctic, reanimation of the Northern Sea Way Exploitation of the oil and gas potential of the Northern regions of Russia and Arctic shelf Large-scale development of hydro energy and renewables Non-fuel energy Modernization of electric power and heat supply systems in the Region Energy saving 7

THE EAST IS A KEY DIRECTION OF DIVERSIFICATION IES THE EAST IS A KEY DIRECTION OF DIVERSIFICATION OF THE RUSSIAN EXPORT Forecast of oil and oil products export Forecast of gas export 8

KEY PROJECTS IN THE EASTERN SIBERIA AND THE FAR EAST IES KEY PROJECTS IN THE EASTERN SIBERIA AND THE FAR EAST Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean pipeline Sakhalin projects Eastern Gas Program Hydroelectricty and Renewables 9

FIRST RESULTS OF ES-2030: CAREFUL OPTIMISM IES FIRST RESULTS OF ES-2030: CAREFUL OPTIMISM 2008 2009 Strategic Indicator for the first stage of ES-2030 (2013-2015) Share of Eastern Siberia and the Far East in oil production 3% 4,6% 10-12% Share of Eastern Siberia and the Far East in gas production 2% 3,7% 7-8% LNG share in gas export 0% 3,5% 4-5% Share of the countries of the Asia-Pacific Region in the structure of gas export 11-12% Capacity volume of coal sea ports terminal in the East, % to 2005 110% 122% 124-125% 10