Surging Toward a Satisfactory Sales Season Many Americans will likely view the 2016 Christmas season as a welcome respite from the presidential election, and could account for much of the National Retail Federation’s (NRF) forecast of a 3.6% increase in November/December sales, totaling $655.8 billion.   A late-September 2016 CreditCards.com survey found that 34 million Americans had already started their Christmas shopping; however, 73% think that September is too early and 52% prefer to see holiday displays and sales starting Thanksgiving Week. Those early holiday shoppers, however, may have been responsible for the 0.6% increase in September retail sales compared to August, and a 3.5% increase compared to September 2015, excluding automobiles, gas stations and restaurants.

Shoppers’ Voice According to Fluent research, 26% of Americans said they would spend less for Christmas 2016 purchases, compared to 21% spending more; however, 26% of adults 18–44 said they would spend more, compared to 17% among adults 45+.   Despite an increasing number of Americans shopping earlier for the holidays, 25% won’t finish their shopping until early December; 23%, mid-December; and 24%, the week before Christmas. Of 7 advertising channels measured, 16% of consumers said direct mail was an extremely important influence on where they would shop for holiday purchases. Television was third at 13% and third at 19% in the “very important” category.

Forget the Stress, Shop Digital eMarketer forecasts that US e-commerce sales will increase 17.2% for the 2016 holiday shopping season, or a total of $94.71 billion, and account for 10.7% of all holiday shopping, the largest portion ever. eMarketer also reports that a Rubicon Project study found that 78% of US Internet users plan to shop in-store and 73% online during the holiday season. The study also found that 61% of US Internet shoppers will research purchases online, and then buy in-store. A September 2016 Market Track survey revealed that 50% of US Internet users will shop in-store on Thanksgiving, compared to 38% online; however, for Black Friday, it will be 45% in-store and 52% online and Cyber Monday, 31% in-store and 61% online.

An Increasing Mobile Experience A September 2016 SessionM survey of more than 7,000 smartphone users found that 46% of respondents said they plan to use their mobile device for 2016 holiday shopping, compared to 43% for 2015 holiday shopping. More telling is the 46% of survey respondents who said once they start their holiday shopping they will use their mobile device to search for specific stores’ deals or sales and 44% who will use them to compare prices from various stores. Criteo, a performance marketing technology company, reported that during Q2 2016, 40% of e-commerce transactions with fashion and luxury retailers occurred on the mobile channel, which was 17% more than Q2 2015.

Tech Gifts Galore According to the Consumer Technology Association (CTA), 73% of holiday gift spending during the past 15 years has been for technology gifts, but the 2016 forecast is 68%, the largest percentage of the past 10 years, which equates to 170 million consumers. The CTA also predicts that wearables and smart home items will be the top gift-giving categories, at 17% and 15%, respectively, however, 7 different home-based tech items total 36%. The tech gifts people want to give don’t match those people would like to receive, as the top choices are smartphone, 8%; TV, 8%; and tablet, 7%.

Advertising Strategies With more adults 18–44 saying they will spend more on holiday shopping than adults 45+, you are in an advantageous position to show advertisers the highly complementary nature of TV and digital to reach younger adults, as highlighted in many MEDIACENTER reports.   Consider a “Holiday Shopping Procrastinator” promotion. Assign holiday-only employees to serve as personal shopping consultants who help procrastinating customers find items in the store, but also take them to nearby stores to find gift items the store doesn’t carry. With 73% of people saying they bought gift cards during the 2015 holiday season, a store could market itself as “Gift Card Central” to attract these consumers. The store could offer a bundle of gift cards at a discount with a qualifying purchase of other items.

New Media Strategies For those advertisers who don’t have a comprehensive mobile marketing program in place for the holidays, they can use the mobile channel to promote “Best-Dressed Pet for the Holidays” or “Most Attractive Home Decorations” to still draw attention to their store. To entice the majority of people who will shop online on Black Friday and Cyber Monday into a store, a retailer can offer a discount for an in-store item only when buying an item of equal or greater value online. Involve employees to create an appealing Santa Countdown promotion on social media and in the mobile channel. Each day’s post features a photo or illustration of Santa busy in his workshop (from free or low-cost stock photo Websites).