NATIONAL ACCOUNTS STATISTICS Quarterly & Annual National Accounts In Rwanda RWILIZA Jean Chrysostome National Bank of Rwanda August 6, 2018

Outline Introduction Compilation methodologies Main data sources Data gaps Improvement August 6, 2018

Introduction August 6, 2018

Introduction GDP by economic activity, i.e. GDP(P), are compiled on a quarterly and annually at both current & constant 2006 prices basis; The estimates of GDP are compiled in accordance with the principles and concepts of the SNA93; Quarterly GDP estimates are published via NISR website since October 2011; First estimate 3 months while revised 9 months Annual estimates are obtained by summing up the relevant quarterly estimates. August 6, 2018

Methodology August 6, 2018

Production approach The current methodology depends on establishing a “benchmark” every five years. The quarterly GDP(P) estimates are based on extrapolating 2006 benchmarks using two types of indicators: value indices (for current price estimates) and quantity indices (for constant price estimates). Benchmark estimates are available for every kind of activity of Total output, IC, and GVA. August 6, 2018

Production approach (cont) Value indices: There are 2 methods of producing value indices: First, when figures for the turnover are available directly, these can be converted into a value index. These turnover data are available for the formal sector and equivalent figures for producers of government services. Second, where turnover figures are not available directly, a value index can be obtained by multiplying a quantity index by an appropriate price index. This is what we do for Agriculture and the rest of informal sector. August 6, 2018

Production approach (cont) Quantity indices: There are several methods of deriving a quantity index: If a value index exists, it can be divided by an appropriate price index. If quantity data are available, they can be converted directly into an index number. If neither values nor reliable quantities are available, proxy indicators of quantity may have to be used. In some cases the quantity indices are based on the population growth rate. August 6, 2018

Production approach (cont) Annual estimates: Annual estimates are derived by summing the quarterly estimates. The main sources for the indicators are: banking data, BOP, Crop assessments, Government finance data, Population projections, Trade data (Import export), Price data (CPI & PPI)and tax data (VAT). August 6, 2018

GDP at market prices Once the estimates of GVA by activity have been made, two adjustments are required in order to convert total GVA at basic prices into GDP at market prices, both current and constant. The first is for Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured :FISIM (formerly known as imputed bank service charges) The second is taxes (less subsidies) on products. August 6, 2018

Expenditure approach GDP by expenditure share, i.e. GDP(E) is NOT independently compiled. Therefore, hard to verify GDP(P). The difference between the total GDP(P) and the sum of other items of expenditure (Government final consumption expenditure, GFCF, and net-export) is reported as private consumption. Separate estimates for household final consumption expenditure, consumption of non-profit institutions serving households, and changes in inventories are not compiled. August 6, 2018

Mode of production Formal sector has been defined as businesses registered for VAT excluding agriculture (agro-industries such as tea and coffee processing are included) For largest enterprises, banks and insurance companies, these data are supplemented by the detailed annual (for banks, quarterly) financial accounts. Informal activity covers marketed production by all other private producers not registered for VAT Apart from crop production (use of “crop assessment data”)estimates are produced by extrapolating the benchmark using proxy indicator. August 6, 2018

Mode of production (cont) Non-monetary production covers goods (mostly crops) and housing services that are consumed by the producer (auto-consumption). These proportions are assumed to be constant between benchmarks. The Government and NGO mode of production is assumed to be activity carried out in three branches of activity, namely public administration, education and health. August 6, 2018

Main data & sources at the rebasing period EICV2 NISR Trade data: Imports CIF, import duty and VAT, Export FOB RRA (Customs) BOP: detailed services (Goods for comparison) BNR Existing gross output estimates by mode of production NISR National Accounts VAT: Monthly turnover RRA GFS: Government expenditure details MINECOFIN Enterprise survey data Agriculture survey (2008) provisional results Crop assessments (2006-2008) MINAGRI Agriculture prices for 2006 by market August 6, 2018 National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda

Mode of production (cont) Data sources for regular estimates DATA FOR: Type SOURCES Agriculture Crop production Export crops Others MINAGRI NAEB RAB etc Formal sector VAT & income tax turnover Profit & loss accounts of firms Quantity & turnover of firms RRA BNR & NISR NISR (PPI survey) RDB, RTDA, RURA Public service Government expenditure MINECOFIN BOP BNR Trade data Prices Farm gate prices CPI &PPI MIS-MINAGRI NISR Non-monetary production covers goods (mostly crops) and housing services that are consumed by the producer (auto-consumption). These proportions are assumed to be constant between benchmarks. The Government and NGO mode of production is assumed to be activity carried out in three branches of activity, namely public administration, education and health. August 6, 2018

Gaps The main gaps include: Better estimates of agricultural production through joint collaboration between NISR and MINAGRI this process has started Quarrying Quarterly estimates of road constr. Quarterly BOP (especially services) Quarterly insurance data Timely school enrolment data August 6, 2018

Improvement The NISR is committed to improving the GDP estimates and to expanding the range of NAS aggregates: Current improvement: Replacing use of population indicators with more representative indicators;  from 19% to 7.4% Increasing use of existing NISR survey data (e.g. Pop. Census 2002, EICV2, NAS 2008). August 6, 2018

Plans for Improvement (2012 to 2014) Increasing access to, and/or use of, existing administrative source data (e.g. Income tax, RAB, RURA, RTDA, Ministries); Finalizing results of EICV3 ; Conducting benchmark agriculture, RGPHC, IBES (enterprise and NGO surveys); Developing detailed benchmarks based on Input-Output Tables (IOT) and Supply/Use Tables (SUT); Rebase of GDP to 2011 base year; Expanding and improving annual and sub-annual data collections (e.g. for Agriculture, PPI); and Redeveloping the NAS compilation methodology and worksheets (Crop WIP, construction model etc) August 6, 2018

Many thanks August 6, 2018