Integrated Agricultural, Migration, and Social Protection Strategies to Reduce Vulnerability to Climate Change in East Africa Bradford Mills Genti Kostandini Anthony Murray Jianfeng Gao Jawoo Koo Zhe Guo Joseph Rusike Steven Omamo

Climatic Shocks/ Change Other Responses Agricultural Production Agricultural Response Migration Off-farm activities Transfers Crop Mix Technology Intensity D Off-farm Income Household Well-Being D Agri. Output

Climatic Shocks/ Change Other Responses Agricultural Production Agricultural Response Migration Off-farm activities Transfers Crop Mix Technology Intensity D Off-farm Income Non-resilient Household D Agri. Output

Climatic Shocks/ Change Other Responses Agricultural Production Agricultural Response Migration Off-farm activities Transfers Crop Mix Technology Intensity D Off-farm Income Resilient Household D Agri. Output

Household resiliency pathways: Ethiopia & Zambia Long-term panel data: Ethiopia : 1999-2004-2009 Zambia: 1999/2000, 2002/2003, and 2006/2007 Crop simulation models: Historical weather 1980 – 2010 future projections to 2050

Decreased rainfall Decreased Yield Climatic Shocks/ Change Household well-being

Dependent Variable: Logged Yield Maize (kg) for entire sample Coef Std. Err t-stat Average Daily Rainfall (mm) Growing Season 0.0450 0.0163 2.75 Lagged 5 year SD growing season 0.0416 0.0226 1.84 Use Fertilizer = 1 0.4234 0.0424 9.98 Number of Adult Equivalent 0.0301 0.0072 4.18 Female Headed Household = 1 -0.2743 0.0591 -4.64 Value of assets 0.0000 0.07 Land Holdings (hectares) 0.0353 0.0272 1.3 Inverse Mills Ratio (Lambda) -0.9452 0.1005 -9.41 IMR * T2 0.3597 0.1168 3.08 IMR * T3 0.3233 0.1389 2.33 T2 (Time Dummy = 1 for 2nd panel year) -0.3335 0.0296 -11.26 T3 (Time Dummy = 1 for 3rd panel year) -0.1506 0.0876 -1.72 Mean of Avg. Daily Rainfall -0.0188 0.0373 -0.51 Mean of 5 year SD -0.0580 0.0364 -1.59 Mean of used fertilizer 0.3662 0.0536 6.83 Mean of Adult equiv. 0.0087 3.45 Mean of Female Headed Household 0.0570 0.0664 0.86 Mean of Assets 0.0001 1.4 Mean of Land Holdings 0.0758 0.0108 7.03 Mean of District Share that grows maize 1.0953 0.1517 7.22 Mean of 5 year growing season 0.0260 0.0430 0.61 Constant 5.4138 0.1353 40 Number of Observations 12,858 Bootstrap replications 89 Wald Chi-square (19 dof) 6570.7 Prob > Chi2 R-Squared 0.4611 Adj. R-squared 0.46 Root MSE 0.9294 Note: Standard Errors are bootstrapped

Zambia Yield (kg) Responses to Average Daily Rainfall (mm) in the Growing Season Coef Std. Err Maize (All) 0.045 0.016 Maize (0-1 ha) 0.066 0.039 Maize (1 - 2 ha) 0.036 0.025 Maize (2+ ha) 0.003 0.021 Sweet potatoes 0.097 Cassava -0.036 0.022 Groundnuts 0.063 0.019 p = 0.01 p = 0.05 p = 0.10

Zambia Yield (kg) Responses to Lagged 5 Year Variance of Rainfall (mm) in Growing Season Coef. Std. Err Maize (All) 0.042 0.023 Maize (0-1 ha) -0.034 0.047 Maize (1 - 2 ha) 0.059 0.039 Maize (2+ ha) 0.094 Sweet potatoes -0.283 Cassava -0.119 Groundnuts -0.030 0.030 p = 0.01 p = 0.05 p = 0.10

Decreased per-capita consumption Climatic Shocks/ Change Decreased rainfall Decreased Yield Decreased per-capita consumption Household well-being

Decreased per-capita consumption Climatic Shocks/ Change Decreased rainfall Decreased Yield Decreased per-capita consumption Do not fully absorb shocks Room to improve household resiliency Household well-being

High costs of climatic variability Household annual costs of exposure to climate variability for Maize (reducing all variability) $15 - $150 in Ethiopia $50 - $90 in Zambia Household cost from mean yield losses in drought years for Maize (1980 – 2009) $5 - $70 in Ethiopia $2 - $10 in Zambia

High costs of climatic variability cont. Household annual costs of exposure to climate variability in Ethiopia (reducing 25% variability) $82 from Wheat $17 from Sorghum Household cost from 25% mean yield losses in Ethiopia $22 from Wheat $40 from Sorghum Costs from maize, sorghum and wheat losses sum up to 10-40% of annual net household income

High costs across maize mega-environment (Ethiopia) Dry Lowlands Highlands Dry Midaltitude Wet Lowlands/Wet Lower Midaltitude Wet Upper Midaltitude Welfare Changes from Mean Yield Changes ('000USD) PS CS Total Total MT Total production gains in % Drought Year (9,927) (4,895) (27,000) (13,315) (48,865) (24,098) (22,680) (11,185) (1,510) (745) (164,219) (663,227) (22) Average Drought (1,739) (858) (4,970) (2,451) (7,058) (3,481) (385) (190) (28,552) Welfare Changes from Changes in the Variance of Yields ('000USD) Risk Benefits 1,631 5,372 2,217 8,097 8,881 25,957 6,459 21,719 1,031 4,373

Climatic Shocks/ Change Evidence crop mix response Agricultural Production Agricultural Response Crop Mix Technology Intensity

Dependent Variable = Share of Cropland that is Maize Sample (all households with positive hectares of maize planted) Dependent Variable = Share of Cropland that is Maize Total Sample Farm Size: (0, 1) Farm Size: [1, 2) Farm Size: [2, ∞) Coef Std. Err t-stat p-val Number of Adult Equivalent 0.0024 0.0015 1.65 0.1 0.0092 0.0049 1.89 0.059 0.0001 0.0026 0.03 0.973 0.0012 0.0018 0.65 0.515 Female Headed Household -0.0260 0.0131 -1.99 0.047 -0.0120 0.0320 -0.37 0.709 -0.0302 0.0221 -1.37E+00 0.17 -0.0265 0.0210 -1.26 0.207 Net Income (less Maize) (US Dollars) -6.36E-06 1.58E-06 -4.03 -2.88E-05 9.94E-06 -2.9 0.004 -4.69E-06 4.02E-06 -1.17 0.243 -6.15E-06 1.61E-06 -3.81 Total Assets 4.89E-06 2.39E-06 2.05 0.04 6.23E-06 1.25E-05 0.5 0.617 7.02E-06 5.10E-06 1.37 0.169 2.15E-06 2.26E-06 0.95 0.342 Cash Remittance (U.S. Dollars) 1.66E-06 3.11E-05 0.05 0.957 1.05E-04 1.15E-04 0.91 0.364 6.04E-06 6.30E-05 0.924 2.58E-05 3.33E-05 0.78 0.438 Owns Livestock (dummy) 0.0013 0.0075 0.865 0.0017 0.0169 0.92 0.0011 0.0120 0.09 0.927 -0.0015 0.0153 -0.1 Total Landholdings 3.60E-05 9.06E-04 0.968 -0.0020 0.0078 -0.26 0.795 0.0035 0.0041 0.85 0.396 -0.0005 0.0008 -0.67 0.505 Hectares Cultivated 0.0064 0.0019 3.44 0.001 0.2497 0.0334 7.48 -0.0039 0.0148 0.72 0.469 Had Fallow Land (dummy) -0.0214 0.0059 -3.61 -0.0124 0.0176 -0.7 0.481 -0.0315 0.0106 -2.96 0.003 -0.0213 0.0085 -2.5 0.012 Use Fertilizer (dummy) 0.1052 0.0076 13.89 0.1574 0.0251 6.28 0.1013 8.43 0.0774 0.0103 7.55 Owns a Radio (Dummy) 2.92E-05 0.0063 0.996 -0.0066 0.0182 -0.36 0.716 0.0116 0.0100 1.16 0.244 -0.0086 0.0094 -0.91 0.36 Grew Cash Crops (current panel year) -0.4036 -38.15 -0.6306 0.0408 -15.44 -0.3559 0.0170 -20.94 -0.2879 0.0137 -20.97 Grew High Value Crops (current panel year) -0.2145 0.0067 -32.06 -0.4253 0.0200 -21.22 -0.1834 0.0107 -17.11 -0.1511 0.0098 Grew Other Staple Crops (current panel year) -0.4209 0.0081 -52.13 -0.8146 0.0228 -35.67 -0.3122 0.0136 -22.88 -0.2181 0.0121 -17.98 Grew C, H, and O.S. Crops (current panel year) 0.3731 0.0166 22.53 0.7911 0.1311 6.04 0.2752 0.0287 9.6 0.1844 0.0190 9.71 Ag Season 2006/2007 Dummy 0.0479 0.0104 4.61 0.0266 0.0290 0.359 0.0788 4.65 0.0511 0.0156 3.27 Ag Season 2002/2003 Dummy -0.0125 0.0096 -1.29 0.195 0.0180 0.0272 0.66 0.508 -0.0026 0.0160 -0.16 0.873 -0.0279 -2.03 0.042 Lagged Total Rainfall (past season) [mm] 0.0000 3.03 0.002 0.0002 3.17 3.29E-05 3.99E-05 0.83 0.409 2.33 0.02 Lagged Planting & Growing Season CV (5 yr) 0.1348 0.0445 0.1598 0.1205 1.33 0.185 0.1084 0.0735 1.47 0.14 0.1732 0.0668 2.59 0.009 Lagged P & G Avg. daily rainfall Mean (5 yr) 0.0538 5.52 0.0421 0.0264 1.59 0.112 0.0687 0.0159 4.33 0.0487 3.18 Lagged Harvest Season CV (5 yr) -0.0351 0.0105 -3.33 -0.0541 0.0312 -1.73 0.083 -0.0249 -1.42 0.157 -0.0339 0.0145 -2.33 Lagged Harvest Avg. daily rainfall Mean (5 yr) -0.0111 0.0139 -0.8 0.425 0.0336 0.0349 0.96 0.335 -0.0097 -0.42 0.671 -0.0405 0.0239 -1.69 0.091 Number of Adult Equivalent (Household Mean across Panel Years) 0.0022 0.514 -0.0064 0.0065 -1 0.32 0.0037 1.06 0.289 0.0032 1.23 0.217 Female Headed Household (Household Mean across Panel Years) 0.0112 0.0162 0.69 0.49 -0.0197 0.0374 -0.53 0.598 0.0508 0.0253 2 0.045 0.0331 0.0249 0.184 Net Income (less Maize) (US Dollars) (Household Mean across Panel Years) 3.04E-06 0.55 0.585 9.93E-06 7.07E-06 1.41 0.16 -7.30E-06 4.51E-06 -1.62E+00 0.105 1.61 0.106 Total Assets (Household Mean across Panel Years) -1.04E-05 3.99E-06 -2.62 -1.29E-05 8.15E-06 -1.58 0.115 -1.41E-05 1.14E-05 -1.23 0.54 0.588 Cash Remittance (U.S. Dollars) (Household Mean across Panel Years) 2.72 0.007 0.44 0.659 0.111 1.68 0.092 Owns Livestock (dummy) (Household Mean across Panel Years) 0.0155 2.13 0.033 0.0311 0.71 0.476 0.0243 0.0214 1.14 0.256 0.0337 0.0254 Total Landholdings (Household Mean across Panel Years) 0.0016 0.473 -0.0048 0.0129 -0.0021 0.0066 -0.32 0.751 0.0020 1.12 0.263 Hectares Cultivated (Household Mean across Panel Years) 0.0039 -2.18 0.029 0.0193 0.42 0.673 0.0093 0.888 -0.0061 -1.62 Had Fallow Land (dummy) (Household Mean across Panel Years) -0.0242 0.0130 -1.86 0.063 -0.0612 0.0325 -1.88 0.06 -0.0172 0.0191 -0.9 0.368 0.62 0.532 Use Fertilizer (dummy) (Household Mean across Panel Years) 0.0470 0.0132 3.57 0.0865 0.0356 2.43 0.015 0.0184 1.48 0.0340 0.0165 2.06 Owns a Radio (Dummy) (Household Mean across Panel Years) -0.0582 0.0126 -4.63 -0.0678 0.0304 -2.23 0.026 -0.0665 0.0171 -3.88 -1.9 0.057 Grew Cash Crops (current panel year) (Household Mean across Panel Years) -0.0410 0.0188 0.0589 0.979 -0.0063 -0.24 0.812 -0.0500 0.0225 Grew High Value Crops (current panel year) (Household Mean across Panel Years) 0.0317 0.0128 2.49 0.013 0.0310 0.26 0.794 0.0102 0.0178 0.57 0.566 0.0433 2.55 0.011 Grew Other Staple Crops (current panel year) (Household Mean across Panel Years) -0.2762 0.0140 -19.67 -0.2367 0.0321 -7.38 -0.3123 -15.61 -0.2748 0.0195 -14.08 Grew C, H, and O.S. Crops (current panel year) (Household Mean across Panel Years) 0.2908 0.0390 7.45 0.1521 0.1304 1.17 0.3038 0.0536 5.67 0.2670 6.17 Lagged Total Rainfall (past season) [mm] (Mean across Panel Years) -0.0006 -9.41 -4.47 -0.0004 -4.43 -0.0008 -8.33 Lagged Planting & Growing Season CV (5 yr) (Mean across Panel Years) -0.1444 0.0599 -2.41 0.016 -0.4568 0.1514 -3.02 -0.1345 0.0896 -1.5 0.133 0.0670 0.0833 0.8 0.421 Lagged P & G Avg. daily rainfall Mean (5 yr) (Mean across Panel Years) -0.0607 -4.73 -0.1123 0.0318 -3.53 -0.0845 0.0189 -4.46 0.0175 0.357 Lagged Harvest Season CV (5 yr) (Mean across Panel Years) 0.1203 4.42 0.1430 0.0633 2.26 0.024 0.2214 0.0369 6 0.1000 0.0359 2.78 0.005 Lagged Harvest Avg. daily rainfall Mean (5 yr) (Mean across Panel Years) -0.0914 -5.5 -0.1795 0.0399 -4.5 -0.0854 0.0255 -3.35 -0.0344 0.0268 0.198 Constant 1.3454 0.1048 12.84 2.2969 0.2250 10.21 0.9731 0.1412 6.89 0.4422 0.1375 3.22   σ_u: 0.1642427 N: 12607 0.2187537 4410 0.1439512 4230 0.1444139 3967 σ_e: 0.2136089 0.2780408 0.1872087 0.1675108 ρ: 0.3715428 0.3823364 0.3715671 0.4263574 Censored @ 0: 2190 1236 642 312 Uncensored: 8307 1855 3126 3326 Censored @ 1: 2110 1319 462 329

Area Crop Share Responses Dependent Variable = Share Maize Total Sample Farm Size: (0, 1) Farm Size: [1, 2) Farm Size: [2, ∞) Coef Std. Err Lagged Total Rainfall (past season) [mm] 0.00008 0.00003 0.00022 0.00007 0.00004 0.00009 Lagged Planting & Growing Season CV (5 yr) 0.13475 0.04451 0.15983 0.12047 0.10844 0.07355 0.17318 0.06676 Lagged P & G Avg. daily rainfall Mean (5 yr) 0.05380 0.00975 0.04205 0.02643 0.06873 0.01586 0.04869 0.01529 Lagged Harvest Season CV (5 yr) -0.03513 0.01053 -0.05406 0.03120 -0.02486 0.01757 -0.03387 0.01451 Lagged Harvest Avg. daily rainfall Mean (5 yr) -0.01107 0.01389 0.03360 0.03489 -0.00967 0.02279 -0.04052 0.02394 Maize share: Increases with past season rainfall (small) Increases planting and growing season rain variation (large) Decreases with harvest season rain variation (large) p = 0.01 p = 0.05 p = 0.10

Crop Area Share Responses Dependent Variable = Share Cassava Total Sample Farm Size: (0, 1) Farm Size: [1, 2) Farm Size: [2, ∞) Coef Std. Err Lagged Total Rainfall (past season) [mm] -0.0002 0.0000 -0.0001 0.0001 Lagged Planting & Growing Season CV (5 yr) -0.3517 0.0798 -0.8233 0.1997 -0.3392 0.1351 -0.0132 0.1299 Lagged P & G Avg. daily rainfall Mean (5 yr) 0.0773 0.0179 0.0415 0.0433 0.0923 0.0306 0.0564 0.0311 Lagged Harvest Season CV (5 yr) 0.0746 0.0190 0.1841 0.0521 0.0577 0.0322 -0.0013 0.0287 Lagged Harvest Avg. daily rainfall Mean (5 yr) 0.0196 0.2186 0.0483 0.1391 0.0338 0.0465 0.0348 Cassava share: Decreases with past season rainfall (large) Decreases planting and growing season rain variation (small) Increases with harvest season rain variation (small) p = 0.01 p = 0.05 p = 0.10

Crop Area Share Responses Dependent Variable = Share Groundnuts Total Sample Farm Size: (0, 1) Farm Size: [1, 2) Farm Size: [2, ∞) Coef Std. Err Lagged Total Rainfall (past season) [mm] 0.0000 0.0001 Lagged Planting & Growing Season CV (5 yr) -0.3233 0.0458 -0.6890 0.1679 -0.2177 0.0769 -0.2269 0.0537 Lagged P & G Avg. daily rainfall Mean (5 yr) 0.0147 0.0101 0.0170 0.0373 -0.0153 0.0168 0.0285 0.0123 Lagged Harvest Season CV (5 yr) 0.0364 0.0109 0.0700 0.0439 0.0413 0.0187 0.0116 0.0118 Lagged Harvest Avg. daily rainfall Mean (5 yr) 0.0222 0.0158 0.1193 0.0558 -0.0038 0.0259 0.0110 0.0198 p = 0.01 p = 0.05 p = 0.10 Groundnut share: Decreases planting and growing season rain variation Increases with harvest season rain variation (medium)

Crop Area Share Responses Dependent Variable = Share Sweet Potato Total Sample Farm Size: (0, 1) Farm Size: [1, 2) Farm Size: [2, ∞) Coef Std. Err Lagged Total Rainfall (past season) [mm] 0.000 Lagged Planting & Growing Season CV (5 yr) 0.112 0.064 0.353 0.212 0.113 0.107 0.015 0.069 Lagged P & G Avg. daily rainfall Mean (5 yr) 0.056 0.014 -0.021 0.046 0.024 0.055 0.016 Lagged Harvest Season CV (5 yr) -0.014 0.057 0.047 0.027 0.009 Lagged Harvest Avg. daily rainfall Mean (5 yr) 0.040 0.019 0.105 0.017 0.031 0.023 p = 0.01 p = 0.05 p = 0.10 Sweet potato share: Increases long term planting and growing season rain

Climatic Shocks/ Change Evidence crop mix response Technologies can buffer shocks Agricultural Production Agricultural Response Crop Mix Technology Intensity

Technologies/interventions that buffer shocks Drought resistant/tolerant crop varieties Maize: CIMMYT/IITA (DTMA ), WEMA project Up to 90% mean yield gains and 20% variance reduction compared to other improved varieties Wheat: ILRI (Durum wheat), ICARDA (Bread wheat), CIMMYT (wheat CRP) Rice: IRRI (several rice varieties) Benefits from reducing variance comprise 40% of all benefits in maize, rice and wheat drought tolerant crops Micro credit Insurance, index based insurance

Climatic Shocks/ Change Migration & off-farm employment response to Rainfall Levels Rainfall variance No (public or informal) transfer responses Not a buffer Other Responses Agricultural Production Migration Off-farm activities Transfers

Implications – What is not working Informal transfers do not buffer covariate shocks Public/formal transfer programs do not respond rapidly Need for adaptive social protection programs Responsive to seasonal rainfall variation

Implications – What can work better Agricultural technologies Stabilize household incomes (rather than mean yield increases) Other Agricultural income stabilizing interventions Index based insurance (rainfall or vegetation) Policies that help households diversify Support (or don’t actively deter) migration Support off-farm opportunities ‘Thicken’ rural economies

Next Step AGRA – Policy briefs Assist countries think through integrated approach Adaptive social protection Income stabilizing technologies Facilitate household diversification and mitigate exposure to risk