AOMIP and FAMOS are supported by the National Science Foundation AOMIP 16th workshop & 1st FAMOS (Forum for Arctic Modeling and Observational Synthesis) workshop Andrey Proshutinsky, Mike Steele and AOMIP team October 24 2012, Woods Hole, MA AOMIP and FAMOS are supported by the National Science Foundation

The AOMIP is an international effort to identify systematic errors in Arctic Ocean models and to reduce uncertainties in model results and climate predictions. AOMIP was initiated in September 2000 and was supported: in 2001-2002 by NOAA via the University of Alaska Cooperative Institute for Arctic Research, in 2003-2006 by OPP NSF via IARC, In 2007 we had no financial support but prepared a new proposal for NSF In 2008 -2010 by a direct grant from OPP NSF. In 2011 – 2012 NSF (2-year no cost extension to complete experiments and publish results) In 2012-2013 NSF as FAMOS to start activities

AOMIP initiation and expectations AOMIP initial goal was to provide: 1. Recommendations for improving existing regional and global coupled ice-ocean models; 2. Assessments of the degree of uncertainty in the results and conclusions made by different modelers, scientific groups and institutions. 3. Identification of model errors and causes of these errors and model discrepancies. GFDL, 2004

McGill University, 2005

Model validation The first group of studies has focused on the analysis of differences among model results and between model results and observations. This was a first step needed for a process of model improvements.

Model validation parameters

Model improvements

Arctic change studies

Woods Hole, 2010 –more than 90 participants

Major 2008-2012 activities 2. Coordinated experiments/themes Bering Strait volume, heat and salt fluxes Canada Basin: shelf-basin exchange and mechanisms Pacific Water circulation (origin, forcing, pathways) Canada Basin: major mechanisms of halocline formation and variability Circulation and fate of fresh water from river runoff Beaufort Gyre: mechanisms of fresh water accumulation and release Fresh water balance of the Arctic Ocean Atlantic Water circulation Ecosystem experiments Observations, state estimation, and adjoint methods

In 2000-2012 we published more than 90 papers and had 15 AOMIP workshops. 2007 2012

Forum for Arctic Modeling and Observational Synthesis (FAMOS) October 24 2012, Woods Hole, MA AOMIP and FAMOS are supported by the National Science Foundation

Specifically, FAMOS will: The overall goal of FAMOS is a better understanding of the Arctic climate system (with a focus on marine ones) through the use of improving numerical models and observational tactics and strategies. Specifically, FAMOS will: Sponsor (at a minimum) an annual workshop for arctic marine theoreticians, modelers and observationalists. Encourage at these workshops the formation of intercomparison projects focused on solving current issues of interest to the observational and modeling communities. Identify leaders who will write papers and give talks about FAMOS and who will shepherd the ongoing intercomparison projects from initial brainstorming to final publication. Provide, for those in need, limited funding for travel (not just to the annual workshop but also to other intercomparison meetings) and for publication of results.

The overall FAMOS science goals are as follows: Continue validation and improvement of regional Arctic Ocean models with intermediate resolution of 20-50 km and specifically focus on validating and improving of new generation of high and very high resolution regional Arctic Ocean models (1-10 km, such as AO-FVCOM, ORCA, NAME, etc.) in a coordinated fashion. Investigate ways to improve reanalysis products with a focus on data assimilation and the design of comprehensive observing systems capable of providing enough information for correct initial conditions about ocean and sea ice for models employed for predictions. Continue investigation of variability of the Arctic Ocean and sea ice at seasonal to decadal time scales focusing on the processes, and identify mechanisms responsible for the observed changes. Analyze IPCC model results validating them against observations in the Arctic and results from the regional Arctic models.

The project’s practical goals are to: Maintain and enhance in FAMOS the established AOMIP international collaboration to reduce uncertainties in model predictions (model validation/improvements via coordinated experiments and studies; reanalysis methods and products for correct initial and boundary conditions; design and implementation of the oceanic and sea ice remote and in situ observing systems); Support synthesis across the suite of Arctic models and observatories and/or observational projects and systems; Organize scientific meetings and workshops including virtual teleconferences; Conduct collaboration with other MIPs with a special focus on model and data improvements and analysis; Disseminate findings of FAMOS effort to broader communities and involve the larger community in discussions, coordinated modeling and observational field experiments; Train a new generation of ocean and sea-ice observationalists and modelers.

Concrete goals for 2012-2013 and this workshop: Discuss at this workshop and formulate major conditions to conduct research for the following problems (we will discuss them on Thursday): Freshwater and heat experiments to better understand roles of freshwater and heat dynamics in the Arctic climate change Tracer based experiments to provide both observational and modeling communities to a) design observational studies b) validate models c) parameterize numerous processes associated with mixing and advection. Continue working with ecosystem modeling and design new experiments taking into account observational needs. Continue working with circulation experiments for surface, Pacific and Atlantic water layers.

AOMIP /FAMOS workshop 1. AOMIP: final results 2. FAMOS: major tasks and formulation of coordinated activities Session 1: Sea Ice Highlights Session 2: Sea ice observations and modeling Session 3: Arctic Ocean water properties and dynamics Session 4: Future Experiments Session 5: Satellite-based analysis and methods Session 6: Models and fluxes AOMIP /FAMOS workshop