Green growth indicators in Asia and the Pacific Hitomi Rankine, Environment and Development Division, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific International Seminar on Green Economy Indicators, 21-22 May 2012, Beijing.

GGI & developing country concerns GE indicators Context-relevant Based on a concept of the determining factors of GG + the objective of GG Help to link policy action to policy impacts Simply framed Useful for economic modeling Take into account the ongoing transfer of environmental burdens between developed and developing countries Cannot penalize developing countries for necessary growth

the Asia-Pacific context Decreasing impact of growth on poverty reduction Increasing inequality Rising unemployment Resource-intensive growth Macroeconomic imbalances and instability Gini coefficient evolution in selected countries Source: Guanghua Wan and Iva Sebastian, (2011), "Poverty in Asia and the Pacific: An Update", ADB Economics Working Paper Series No. 267, p.20

… inequality = persistent unmet needs 641 million living with less than 1 US$ per day 400 million urban residents without access to sanitation 566 million rural residents without access to clean water 800 million without electricity

the context… environmental pressures Jobless growth and decreasing impact of growth on poverty reduction Resource-intensive growth GHG emissions Vulnerability to rising and volatile commodity prices Macroeconomic imbalances and instability Domestic material consumption intensity Asia-Pacific Rest of world Source: CSIRO and UNEP Asia Pacific Material Flows database Source: CSIRO and UNEP Asia-Pacific Material Flows database

… macro-economic imbalances Jobless growth and decreasing impact of growth on poverty reduction Increasing inequality Persistent poverty Resource-intensive growth GHG emissions Vulnerability to rising and volatile prices Macroeconomic imbalances and instability Financial instability Persistent macroeconomic imbalances Trade and current account balances Source: ESCAP based on data from United Nations Statistics Division, National Accounts Main Aggregates Database and Economist Intelligence Unit, Country Database

…facing a new economic reality Shift in scarcities - manufactured & human capital no longer scarce - environmental capital is now scarce A-P increasing weight & integration in global economy Increasingly evident resource constraints (land, food, water) Increasing instability

System change for low carbon green growth A green economy = an eco-efficient economy that addresses resource constraints and a climate crisis A green economy will not materialize through incremental changes - fundamental changes needed visible structure of the economy (physical infrastructure) invisible structures of the economy (market prices, fiscal policies, institutions, governance and lifestyles) A green economy will not materialize through incremental changes. A shift towards green growth requires a fundamental system change, restructuring both the visible (physical infrastructure) as well as the invisible structures of the economy (market prices, fiscal policies, institutions, governance and lifestyles). The extent to which green growth can deliver a double dividend (such as higher growth with lower environmental impact) depends on the breadth and depth of the system change. The greening of the economy will not happen automatically through the market. This is mainly due to two gaps. First, there is a time gap between short-term costs and long-term benefits. Second, there is a price gap between current market prices and the real cost of natural resource use and ecosystem services. Governments have to close these two gaps through economic system change. Although the market has an important role, only governments can lead the systematic transition. 8

Green Growth Road Map for Asia and the Pacific Low Carbon Green Growth Road Map for Asia and the Pacific Main guide Summary for policymakers 63 fact sheets 51 case studies 8 policy papers The Low Carbon Green Growth Roadmap for Asia and the Pacific consists of several products: A main report, which lays out the challenges for the region, the paradigm of the green growth strategy and the roadmap for pursuing it in several critical sectors, including the policy options A summary for policymakers, which contains all the key messages and findings 63 fact sheets that provide detailed information and analysis of the policy options identified in the manual, including strengths, challenges and implementing strategies 51 case studies that provide detailed information about successful practices that can be found in the Asia-Pacific region and elsewhere 8 policy papers that provide in-depth analysis for specific sectors, such as fiscal reform, urban planning, transport, green buildings, water infrastructure and trade All products will be available on CD and on the web after the launch on 25-26 April 2012 in Seoul. 8 policy papers 9

Green growth roadmap – 5 tracks “Invisible structure” of the economy = incentives framework – prices, taxes, social preferences, technology “Visible structure” = built and natural environments

Assessing degree of system-change – key questions How green is the infrastructure – both built and natural? How green is the incentives framework? How eco-efficient is the economy ? How eco-efficiently (and inclusively) are human needs being met? How close are environmental pressures to environmental thresholds? Which? Which?

What kinds of indicators are needed? Indexes, headline, sectoral, or all ? >> depends on the policy context >> in a comprehensive framework they can be hierarchically linked Green growth-related country initiatives Green growth roadmaps or related comprehensive programmes - supported by comprehensive programmes and investment , fully mainstreamed – Republic of Korea China, Malaysia, Singapore High-level targets for renewable energy use – Tuvalu, Fiji Samoa other

Green growth – a better quality of growth

Sample green growth Indicators for a developing country context

Thank you for your attention