Logical Fallacies and Using Statistics

What is a fallacy? Definition of fallacy: a misleading or unsound argument. Any of various types of erroneous reasoning that render arguments logically unsound. (“erroneous” means “containing an error”) See the handout for some common logical fallacies

Why are logical fallacies tricky? Logical fallacies are tricky because they sound good on the surface. Look at the example fallacies provided on the handout. Which ones look good on the surface?

Logical Fallacies in the Media Where do we see logical fallacies? In the media? In advertisements? Logical fallacies are not always as easy to spot as the ones that I have provided for you. Be a savvy reader. Be aware of author biases and of these patterns we have discussed. If you see these fallacies in something you read, question them.

How can you fix a logical fallacy? If you catch yourself or a peer in a logical fallacy, how do you fix it? Moderate your language. One of the fundamental rules of persuasive writing is “Don’t make claims you can’t prove.” Also, if you make a sweeping generalization and the audience can think of even ONE example that disproves your generalization, you’ve lost credibility with your reader. Give more specifics – this especially helps with proof by too few examples, allness, and oversimplification

Fixing logical fallacies Allow for complexity – this definitely helps with oversimplification and either/or reasoning Avoid common, over the top phrasing – say things in a new way Build credibility – your own, and that of your sources. Show yourself to be knowledgeable and reasonable, and your sources to be trustworthy. Look at the big picture – think of various people/issues who might be affected by your idea and consider them before making blanket statements.

Logos Review One of the ways you will be making your argument is through the use of logos. Logos appeals to logic, reason, and “common sense.” Arguments that use logos use often use statistics and results of scientific studies and interpret those statistics and results for the reader to show how those facts support the claim.

Using Facts Effectively “You are entitled to your own opinion, but you are not entitled to your own facts.” – U.S. Senator Daniel Moynihan When you present factual findings (statistics or study results) in your research paper, you are going to need to do these things: Interpret the fact. Explain what it means to your argument. Give your facts context. Make sure your facts are credible to the reader.

Your Sources May Have Done Some Interpretation Already… In your research, you will find facts presented in two different ways: Informative sources simply give you the facts and let you draw your own conclusions. There are no beliefs about the facts in informative sources, and it is up to you to interpret the facts and explain why they fit your claim. Persuasive sources will use facts in order to support a claim. These types of sources will have beliefs about what the facts mean and what should be done because of them. These are the sources you can agree or disagree with.

Informative/Persuasive: to Sum Up So, to sum up: if a fact is from an informative source, it is up to YOU to interpret it. If a fact is from a persuasive source, you have a choice. Use the fact without responding to your source’s ideas about the fact. Quote the fact and the ideas, and then agree/disagree with the ideas about the fact, not the fact itself.

Logos and Statistics Many appeals to logos are based on research that has statistical results. “An analysis by the Pew Research Center found that of more than 67,000 news stories that appeared in newspapers or on cable and network television, radio and news websites, between February 2009 and February 2010, 1.9 percent related in a significant way to African Americans, 1.3 percent related to Latinos and only .2 percent related to Asian Americans” (Hannah).   The author quotes this study in order to support his argument that the media is not adequately representing LBGTQ people of color.

Questions to Ask About Statistics/Research Who conducted the research? Are they credible? How recent is the research? How many individuals were included in the study? What methods were used to conduct the study? Were they fair and effective? If the statistics are interpreted/explained, who is doing the interpretation?

There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics. - Mark Twain

Use Statistics Honestly Logos is a powerful tool for persuasion, but you want to make sure that you are using the research you encounter honestly. It is possible that legitimate, factual research might be manipulated by an unethical writer.

A very over the top example: “California Community Colleges are doing a terrible job. In a study of 2013 graduation rates, the Chronicle for Higher Education found that only 26.2% of students seeking a 2-year degree finished within three years. This means that barely more than one fourth of students finish their degrees in a reasonable amount of time. Taxpayers should be outraged that their taxes are supporting institutions with such low rates of success.”

Give Your Facts/Statistics Context The fact “only 26.2% of CA students finish their community college degrees in three years” needs context. Which students were included in the study? “First time, full-time degree seeking students.” This means that students who took a break and then graduated in a reasonable amount of time aren’t counted. Part time students who later became full time aren’t counted. 26.2% graduate in 3 years in California, but how does this compare to other states? The national average is only 19.4%, so California is performing BETTER than the national average in Community college degree completion. Out of all 50 states, California has the 10th highest completion rate (the highest is South Dakota, with 51.2% graduating in 3 years).

Questioning Facts: The Exception Remember how I said “you can’t argue with facts”? There is one exception. If you find out that the research that provided a statistic was not well done, you can question the research. Point out a flaw in the study’s methods that you discovered. Point out an unethical or unfair practice by the study’s authors. Remember, though, you can only do these things if you are ready to prove that the study is flawed.

A Problems to Watch out For Correlation is not causation (the verb is “correlate”) Just because two things are happening at the same time, or changing at the same rate, does not mean that they one is the cause of the other. If you believe that two things are changing at the same time or at the same rate because they are related, you need to do much more to argue for the connection than present statistics that say they are both changing. There are several amusing graphs about trends that prove this point here, as well as a video that explains the issue in more depth.

So what does all of this mean for my research paper? Use facts and statistics wisely. When you are interpreting and explaining facts and statistics, make sure you are doing so in a way that is logical and fair. Let your audience know where the fact/statistic came from, and argue for its credibility. Remember that correlation is not causation. When you are responding to your sources’ interpretations of facts, be sure that you are arguing for or against the interpretation of the facts, and not the facts themselves, unless you have proof that the study is flawed.