The EU’s CAP and the likely impact of a Doha Agreement

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Presentation transcript:

The EU’s CAP and the likely impact of a Doha Agreement Lecture 24. Economics of Food Markets Alan Matthews

Why focus on Doha? Composition of operating surplus in agriculture Premia and arable aid Market returns Rural development payments 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 € million Decoupling WTO reduced protection

Export Subsidies January 2003: EU initially offered to reduce aggregate expenditure limits by 45% but in 2001/02 only used 35% of entitlement In July 2004 Framework Agreement, EU signed up conditionally to full elimination Importance of ‘credible date to be agreed’ Blair has called for end by 2010 It may be that policy change will eliminate the commodity export surplus: but what about Non-Annex I goods, i.e. the food industry?

Domestic support – EU situation 2001 (before Mid-Term Review) Amber Box US dollars Bound AMS 65,383 Market Price Support 25,085 Direct Payments 12,117 less De Minimis 411 Current AMS 36,791 Degree of AMS Overhang 44% Blue Box $ Millions 21,262 % Value of Agricultural Production 7% Green Box 19,452 Overall Distorting Support (ODS) Bound ODS 87,056 Current ODS 58,464 Degree of ODS Overhang 33%

Market access Effect on tariff cut on beef price EU support price (basic intervention price) €2,224 Estimated world market price €1,200 Current EU import tariff €1,922 Possible tariff cut which does not impact on EU market price (tariff overhang) 40%

Market access Effect on tariff cut on beef price EU market price €2,700 Estimated world market price €1,200 Current EU import tariff €1,922 Possible tariff cut which does not impact on EU market price (tariff overhang) 16%

Market access Effect of tariff cuts on butter prices, €/tonne Unfavourable world market Favourable world market EU market price (2008) €2,247 Estimated world market price 1,170 1,575 Current EU import tariff 1,896 Possible tariff cut which does not impact on EU market price (tariff overhang ) 36% 54%

Market access Effect of tariff cuts on SMP prices, €/tonne Unfavourable world market Favourable world market EU market price (2008) 1,782 Estimated world market price 1,650 1,800 Current EU import tariff 1,118 Possible tariff cut which does not impact on EU market price (tariff overhang ) 55% 64%

Effect of tariff cuts on white sugar price EU support price (based on Commission July 2005 reform proposal) €386 Estimated world market price €210 Current EU import tariff €419 Possible tariff cut which does not impact on EU market price (tariff overhang ) 63%