GDP Growth and Elections

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Presentation transcript:

GDP Growth and Elections 1 Marcus, Margarita, Arda

Hibbs vs. Australia Elections Economic data US vs. Australia 3 Elections Fixed vs. Non-fixed 2 party system vs. Coalitions Economic data Eeal disposable personal income vs. Quarterly GDP Growth US vs. Australia

The Solutions Economic data—quarterly GDP growth Endogenous elections 4 Economic data—quarterly GDP growth Real GDP per capita Endogenous elections Traditional Non-traditional Dummy variables

Possible Explanations 7 Australia is an open economy Welfare state Different electoral system Australians may not care about the economic voting

Puerto Rico Gubernatorial Elections Fixed Elections 2-Party System 9 Gubernatorial Elections Fixed Elections 2-Party System New Progressive Party Popular Democratic Party

Possible Explanation and Lessons Learned 11 Open Economy Idiosyncratic Factors 1972 election

Questions?