Demography: It’s All About People Demography is the study of human populations using numbers, distributions, trends, and issues.

Why are more schools closing than opening? Demography is the study of populations. It helps answer questions such as Why are more schools closing than opening? Why will you likely have to work more years than your parents before retiring? Why are old rock-and-roll groups, such as the Rolling Stones, still so popular? Once students understand what demography is, you may want to brainstorm with them other questions that demographic studies can help answer. Here are some additional possibilities: Why is golf growing and tennis declining in popularity? What is a “boomer”?

This chapter shows you how to compare the populations of different countries how to examine changes in population structure how to measure population change

World Population Growth Since 1 CE

How do we compare countries that have populations of different sizes How do we compare countries that have populations of different sizes? Use RATES not NUMBERS!

Look at the number of births for these three countries. Canada: 330 000 babies born in 2003 Russia: 1 458 000 babies born in 2003 Togo: 191 000 babies born in 2003 Students can check the locations of these three countries using the world map on the inside back cover of the student book. Ask students to speculate about the populations of these three countries. Help them see that, although the actual number of births per year in each country may be interesting, comparing the actual number of births is somewhat pointless because the countries are so different in total populations. What matters is not the number of births, but the relationship between the number of births and the size of the population.

To calculate each country’s birth rate, divide the number of births in one year by the population, and multiply the result by 1000. The answers are…

Birth Rate Canada (330 000/32 207 000)  1000 = 10 Russia (1 458 000/144 526 000)  1000 = 10 Togo (191 000/5 429 000)  1000 = 35 A measurement called birth rate gives the number of births per year for every 1000 people. This “common denominator” of 1000 people allows countries with different total populations to be compared. Students may understand this concept better if you explain it in terms of percentages. For example, the results that students obtain from a number of tests, large and small, can be compared if all the results are converted to percentages—values with a common denominator of 100.

In a similar fashion, rates can be calculated for number of deaths number of immigrants number of emigrants

Rates can also be combined in the following manner: natural increase rate = birth rate – death rate net migration rate = immigration rate – emigration rate

Population Growth Rate A country’s population growth rate = natural increase rate + net migration rate.

Canada’s Population Growth Rate

The rate at which a country’s population grows or declines has an enormous influence on people’s lives. Why do you think this is so? If time allows, have a class discussion to encourage students to think about the impact of population growth rates. Answers will vary, but should include the following ideas. (1) If the population is growing very rapidly, there may be serious problems providing enough housing, education, healthcare, and jobs for everyone. (2) If the population is declining, there may be a shortage of workers and customers to meet the needs of businesses.

Comparing Population Growth Rates These population growth rates may not seem very different: Canada 0.8% Russia – 0.4% Togo 2.4% But we need to consider the impact of “compounding.”

The Power of Compounding To help pay for your future education costs, your parents offer you two choices. For 30 days, you can receive one of the following: Which one would you chose: Fig. A or Fig. B? Fig. B 1 cent + 2 cents + 4 cents + 8 cents … Fig. A $1000 + $1000 + $1000 + $1000 …

If you selected Fig. B, you would have a lot more money for your education. Why? Because growth occurs on top of the growth that has already taken place. The impact of compounding in demography is not quite as dramatic, but it is still of enormous importance. For example, a French Canadian couple who married in 1660 could theoretically have 16 million descendants today. Fig. A $30 000 Fig. B $10 737 418.23

Here is the impact of compounding on the populations of Canada, Russia, and Togo for the next 100 years. Canada’s population will grow slowly, to about 67 million. Russia’s population will drop to less than 100 million (about two-thirds of today’s population). Togo’s population will skyrocket to more than 50 million.

Doubling Time Doubling time is the time it takes a population to double at its current growth rate. You could calculate doubling time with fancy mathematics. Or, you could estimate the time by…

Canada’s population growth rate is 0.8%. …using the Rule of 70, which states that doubling time = 70 divided by the population growth rate. Canada’s population growth rate is 0.8%. Therefore, Canada’s doubling time is approximately 87 years (70/0.8).

Canada’s doubling time is 87 years. Togo’s doubling time is 30 years (70/2.4). Which country can more easily deal with its population growth? Explain. A small difference in the population growth rate makes a tremendous difference in doubling time. Canada can more easily deal with its population growth because it has a long period of time (87 years) to meet the needs of a population twice the current size.

Population Pyramids It is easier and faster to understand population structure if the data are graphed. Two bar graphs are constructed. The first one looks like this.

Combine the two sets of bar graphs to create a population pyramid that shows the age/gender breakdown of a country’s population.

The second bar graph looks like this.

Dependency Load The dependency load is the part of the population that needs to be supported. It is made up of two components: the 0–14 age groups and the 65+ age groups.

What has happened to the dependency load between 1956 and 2004? What is the significance of this change? In 1956, there was a high percentage of children (0–14 years of age) because of the baby boom that occurred between 1946 and 1961. In 2004, this same group had become part of the bulge at 40–59 years old. In 2004, the percentage of children was considerably lower, while the percentage of older people (65 and older) had increased significantly. The difference in the nature and size of the dependency load shifted Canadian society’s focus from providing services for children to providing services for a growing, older population, such as geriatric care, the provision of hearing aids, and increasing the number of golf courses.

Stages of Population Change Populations within countries change over time in a predictable manner.

Have a close look at the Stages of Population Change diagram. What is happening at each stage? Why is it happening? Stage 1: The combination of high birth rates and high death rates keeps the size of the population stable. No country in the world today is in this stage. Stage 2: The death rate drops (especially in infants), usually because of better healthcare and nutrition, while the birth rate remains high. Parents still have large numbers of children because they want to guarantee that they will have children to support them in their old age. The difference between a high birth rate and a low death rate results in a long period of natural increase in the population. Stage 3: The birth rate drops because parents are more certain that all their children will survive to adulthood, and parents limit the size of their families as women begin to work outside the home. Canada began to experience this stage in the early 1960s. This stage has only just begun in many very poor countries. Stage 4: The birth rate declines to the point where it is close to the death rate. This causes the population to level off. Canada is approaching this point, but has not yet reached it. A few countries, particularly in Eastern Europe, have reached this stage.