Dr. Roger N. Anderson Energy Research Center

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Presentation transcript:

The Role of New Technologies in the Sustainability of the Upstream Oil Industry Dr. Roger N. Anderson Energy Research Center Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia University 10

Technological Business Drivers: Shorten Cycle Time, Time-is-Money, Allow the application of only those Technologies that Improve the business process, Allow New Perspectives on Manufacturing Problems, Truly Integrate Field Management with the Business Case!

The New Business Environment 9

Evolution of Oil Price/Cost per Barrel Profit Mix From Lynch, Jarchow and Cura, MIT 100 Forecast Prices 1995 $$/BBL 50 Real Price Real Cost 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

NPV, Return-on-Capital and Growth are all over Map! ROCE

Growth = Function of Discoveries - Production & Depletions Phillips BP/A Shell Agip Texaco Exxon Chevron Amoco Elf Arco Mobil Unocal

Companies are good at Production Growth or Reserves Replacement, but not often both! II I Texaco Amoco Shell Agip Chevron BP/A Mobil Arco Hydro BP IV III Elf Exxon Phillips

Earnings Performance = Function of Production Growth 2 4 6 8 10 16 Earnings Performance = Function of Production Growth 14 12 Texaco Earnings Growth (%) BP/A Arco Shell 10 Agip Hydro Chevron Exxon 8 Mobil Elf Phillips 6

Cum $$ NPV Time Exploration Appraisal Development Production Abandonment NPV Cum $$ Time

Exploration Performance: Replacement Costs (Boe/$) New Reserves Replacement Costs (Boe/$) Replacement %

Barrels per day Time

Production Performance: Production Costs ($/Boe) Profit/boe

Increased Productivity from 4D: 20 Case Studies used Increased Productivity from 4D: 20 Case Studies used. 2D baseline in 1986, 3D from 1986 to 1995, 4D since 1995! 4D 3D 2D

How do we get to 4D Immersion into the Business World? Injected Gas Breakthrough Secondary Gas Cap Hydrocarbon Indicator Bypassed Oil Water “Fingers Bounding Water Water Injection 3DSeismic 4D Seismic Differences New Multilaterals!

In the Manufacture of Oil and Gas is what really improves Business Performance! R&D/E&P (%) ROCE Net Profit

To get there? Must allow management in a rigorous Business Sense. Powerful new Far-Field technologies are being introduced not only to visualize portfolios, but to improve the manufacturing process itself. Growth and Profitability of Oil Industry is being profoundly changed. There will be No return to Business-as-Usual, no matter what the price does.