Journey-to-Work and Migration Statistics Branch U.S. Census Bureau Commuting and Migration Data Products from the American Community Survey State Data Center Steering Committee Meeting, Feb. 2011 Journey-to-Work and Migration Statistics Branch U.S. Census Bureau Current and forthcoming Commuting and Migration data products mostly based on the ACS

Geographically Dependent Characteristics: “Flows” Migration Commuting

Flow Data in the ACS The ACS asks about: - Place of work - Residence 1 year ago Each question tells a story about 2 geographies AFF currently cannot support flow products The Challenge - Disseminating useful and accessible flow data that protects the confidentiality of respondents Both new and old versions of AFF do not support flows

Past Efforts to Present Flow Data Large matrices that provide counts linking origins and destinations Number of characteristics limited to protect confidentiality Tables are cumbersome and difficult for AFF to accommodate Tables showing data for only one end of the flow More characteristics available Limited utility due to less geographic specificity about other end of flow Confidentiality issues have become more central to data production since the release of the migration data package based on Census 2000.

Census Bureau’s Internal Flows Working Group New internal group formed to create new and modified flow products to become part of standard production Focus on data content and dissemination method Considerations for new product development: User needs, DRB rules, content of existing products (e.g., EEO special tab) Group includes HHES, POP, ACSO

Proposed Approach for Presenting Flows: Alternate Characteristics across Years Release new set of flow data each year based on 5-year ACS data (county-to-county level) Initial release will only include counts Each subsequent annual release within a 5-year period to include flows crossed with a small number of characteristics that vary by year Achieve a set of flows by multiple characteristics over the course of 5 years

For Example: Year 1: Basic count of county-level worker flows Year 2: Worker flows by age and sex (separately) Year 3: Workers flows by race and Hispanic origin Year 4: Worker flows by means of transportation Year 5: Worker flows by Industry and Occupation

We Want Your Feedback Which characteristics are most important to flow data? Among existing ACS migration and place of work tables on AFF, which are least useful? How do you want to obtain the data? Geo-IDs such as FIPS codes included in table? Utility of maps to accompany data tables?

Home-to-Work Flow Products

POW Flows and Metro/Micro Area Definitions Place of Work flows are used to support delineation of Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas for OMB Metro and Micro areas are made up of a county with a large population nucleus and adjacent counties that have a high degree of integration with that nucleus Integration among counties is, in part, measured by county-to-county commuter flows

POW Flows and Metro/Micro Areas cont. County-to-county home-to-work flows based on 5-year ACS 2006-2010 will be released to support metro area definitions Released every 5 years with no characteristics 2000 Census County-to-county home-to-work flows available at: <http://www.census.gov/population/www/cen2000/commuting/index.html>

American Community Survey 2006-2010 Special EEO Tabulation Special Equal Employment Opportunity (EEO) Tabulation Home-to-work flows by industry/occupation and several demographic characteristics Released in late 2012 via AFF Subject Matter Variables: detailed occupation categories, race and ethnicity, citizenship, sex, educational attainment, older age groups, younger age groups, industry and earnings

American Community Survey 2006-2010 Special EEO Tabulation Types of tabulations: worksite tabulations workflow tabulations for a central worksite showing the flow to that worksite of workers from up to nine individual counties, places, or balance of counties residence tabulations Geographies: nation, states, CBSAs, counties, county sets, and places

LED/OnTheMap Local Employment Dynamics (LED) Home-to-work flows using Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages records OnTheMap allows users to map small-area job counts and travel patterns, including home-to-work flows. http://lehdmap.did.census.gov/

Census Transportation Planning Products (CTPP)

What is the CTPP? 3-Year Census Transportation Planning Products A set of special tabulations from the American Community Survey tailored for the data needs of transportation planners Produced by the Census Bureau, sponsored and owned by American Association of State Highway Transportation Officials (AASHTO) More detailed transportation information Key transportation crossed by several characteristics More detailed categories, MOT has 5 different collapses Start with what’s probably the biggest news, release of the 3-year CTPP

Available for areas of 20,000 population or greater 3-year CTPP Data Product Available Now Based on ACS 2006, 2007, 2008 Available for areas of 20,000 population or greater http://trbcensus.com/products

The 3-year CTPP Design 3-Parts Based on 2000 Geography MSA – EACH Principal City Metropolitan Statistical Area POW PUMA PUMA Place MCD County Nation (US Total) Product Structure 3-Parts Part 1- Place of Residence Part 2- Place of Work Part 3- Flows between Home and Work State Product documentation available at: http://ctpp.transportation.org/Documents/CTPP_custom_tabulations_based_on_3yracs2006_2008.xls

Key CTPP Contacts http://ctpp.transportation.org Penelope Weinberger AASHTO CTPP Program Manager 202-624-3556 pweinberger@aashto.org 3 year CTPP dry run for 5-Year CTPP released in late 2012, early 2013 Based on ACS 2006-0210 data Will include smaller geographies: TAZ, Tracts, possibly block groups. Depends on NCHRP data synthesis product project County-to-county POW flows available for 2006-2010 to support metropolitan area definitions criteria http://ctpp.transportation.org 20

Forthcoming Commuting Report “Commuting in the United States: 2009” More information on commuting special products can be found at: <http://www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/journey.html>

Overview of ACS-Based Migration Products

Decennial Census Products Census 2000 Migration Data DVD County-to-County Tables: 1 general table– no restrictions 19 single characteristic tables – rounding 22 multiple characteristic tables - rounding & restricted to flows of 3 or more unweighted cases File format - ASCII Note that the DVD contained other tables. These are just the county-to-county migration tables. County-to-County Migration Flow Table. One file that contained the number of migrants who moved between counties. Every county-to-county migration flow of at least one person was included in the file. County-to-County Migration by General Characteristics. Nineteen files that provided counts of migrants between counties disaggregated by characteristics. Data for the population living in households were rounded to the nearest 10. County-to-County Migration Cross-Tabulations. Twenty-two files that provided limited cross-tabulations of characteristics of movers for county-to-county migration flows. County-to-county data were restricted to county-to-county flows of 3 or more unweighted persons. For each state of origin, county-to-county flows that did not meet the 3 or more unweighted threshold were collapsed into a single county of previous residence called “xxx.” Values of 0 were rounded to 0, values of 1-7 rounded to 4, and all other values were rounded to the nearest multiple of 5. Data for the population living in households were further rounded to the nearest 10.

ACS Migration Flow Products ACS State-to-State Migration Flow Tables Published since 2005 Shows state of current residence by state of residence 1 year ago (no characteristics) NOT a part of standard products Published in Journey-to-Work and Migration Branch. Goes through different review process. Currently available 2005 ACS, 2006 ACS, 2007 ACS, 2005-2007 ACS

2008 and 2006-2008 state-to-state migration tables now available: http://www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/state-to-state.html

Possible Future 5-Year Migration Products *County-to-County migration flows (2006-2010) *limited characteristics May also produce: Place-to-Place MCD-MCD (12 states) MCD-to-County County-to-MCD CBSA-to-CBSA Metro Area-to-Metro Area MCD – Minor civil division CBSA – Core-Based Statistical Area (Metro/Micro)

Standard Migration Products in AFF Tables with In-Migration by Characteristics Since 2004 ACS All publishable geographies Tables with Out-Migration by Characteristics Since 2007 ACS Limited geographies In-migration tables are available for all published geographies for ACS Out-migration tables are available for states, counties, minor civil divisions, metro/micro areas , metro divisions, combined statistical areas, New England City and Town Areas, NECTA divisions, and Combined NECTAs. Places and Principal Cities are being phased in due to the change in the 2008 migration question. 1-year 2008 ACS; 3-year 2008-2010 ACS; 5-year 2008-2012 ACS.

Crossed for AFF Migration Tables Age Sex Race/Hispanic Origin Citizenship Marital Status Educational Attainment Individual Income Poverty Status Tenure

Issues Smaller sample size Not part of basic production Fewer movers (residence 1 year ago vs. 5 years ago question) Larger margin of errors Periodicity – new data each year Disclosure issues Overlapping datasets More standard data products 50 case limit on residence 1 year ago tables Not part of basic production Major Issues -More detail creates potential disclosure issues -Products need to be specially created Disclosure rule for residence 1 year ago tables: Tables involving a geographic area other than current place of residence (such as workplace tables, place of birth, residence 1 year ago) crossed with characteristics other than current place of residence must have at least 50 unweighted cases in sample in the universe of the table over the 5-year period.

Similar Problem: Journey to Work Census Transportation Planning Products Previously created tables of characteristics, and Home to Work Flows by characteristics from decennial data ACS 3-year CTPP just released # of crosses for flows minimized to 5 variables due to disclosure avoidance requirements Disclosure issues will still be an issue for an ACS 5-year CTPP product being planned Current remedy – Synthetic Data Approach

Forthcoming Migration Report and other products “Geographic Mobility: 2008-2009” More information on migration special products can be found at: www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/migrate.html

U.S. Census Bureau: Journey-to-Work & Migration Statistics Branch Contact: Alison Fields Phone: 301-763-2454 Email: Alison.K.Fields@census.gov