Union of Concerned Scientists 40th Anniversary Symposium

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Presentation transcript:

Union of Concerned Scientists 40th Anniversary Symposium Panel on Missile Defense and Space Security John Steinbruner University of Maryland October 31, 2009

Basic Situation Space utilization is in a process of gradual and lengthy transformation From the original purpose of supporting military confrontation To much broader social and economic functions Commercial communication and navigation Earth observation for environmental management. Prevailing legal, financial and institutional arrangements are incompletely adapted to the ultimately necessary expansion of purpose.

Notable Problems Inherent tension between the principle of equitable utilization and the impulse for competitive national advantage. Global commons concept necessitated by the physics of orbital dynamics, Has generally been interpreted to allow military support activities but not weaponization.

The distinction between legitimate military support and objectionable weaponization Has not been completely specified in legal terms OST does not explicitly prohibit conventional weapons or acts of interference. Has been sharply contested in apparently authoritative US policy documents Stated aspiration to dominate space for national military advantage And deny similar effort by any other country.

US missile defense aspirations conflict with the global aspiration to prevent space weaponization. Any test or deployment of a space based system would be a direct contradiction. All strategic range ballistic missile interceptors in any basing mode confer ASAT capability.

Reasonable Expectations Increasing importance of broad space support services will eventually induce more complete legal specification: Prohibition of acts of interference as distinct from capacity for interference. Defined limits on military support functions. Equitable sharing of information of common interest.

Contrary impulse for dominance or decisive competitive advantage not feasible for any country. Not legitimate in global judgment Not achievable at realistic cost.

Immediate Imperative Initiate formal negotiations to update the legal regime. Requires a reversal of US policy But one that better reflects fundamental US interest.

Practical Observation US BMD program is more a political than a strategic project. Space based component is not remotely realistic but the idea is politically entrenched. Difficulty of disciplining that aspiration is arguably the primary impediment to development of the space regime.