Impact assessment and decision making Mikko V. Pohjola, Nordem Oy, (THL)

Presenter background M.Sc. (tech), University of Oulu, Industrial engineering and management, 2006 PhD student, University of Eastern Finland, Environmental health / SYTYKE, 2007-2012 Researcher, National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL), 2006-2011 Research consultant, Nordem Oy, 2012-> Also former work experience in consultancy entrepreneurship as well as industry

Contents Homework 1 discussion Some (more) basic concepts Effectiveness of assessments and policies? Impact assessment & decision making Conclusions

Concepts Assessment – knowledge support for practical needs Policy – decisions and actions with societal relevance Practices – (common) ways of dealing with things Effectiveness – capability (or likelihood) of achieving intended outcomes Evaluation – analysis of the capability (or likelihood) of achieving intended outcomes

Problem If we want policy to be ”knowledge-based” and ”effective”… …what constitutes effective knowledge-based policy? As well as effective knowledge support to policy?

Concepts Decision analysis & risk management?

Decision analysis p(in time), cost (€) E(u) Decision: 3 options Uncertain outcomes pt ? k€ ? Chances

Risk management Extrapolation Measurements and population characteristics Hazard identification Dose-response assessment Exposure assessment Risk characterization Regulatory options Evaluation of options Decisions and actions Risk assessment Risk management Observations NRC 1983. Risk Assessment in the Federal Government: Managing the Progress. The National Research Council. National Academy Press, Washington D.C.

Concepts Or perhaps (Impact) assessment & Decision support?

Common perspectives to effectiveness Assessment (and modeling) Quality assurance / control Uncertainty analysis Technical assessment of models ”Effectiveness” Other Policy Outcomes (vs. objectives) Behavioral responses + CBA Monitoring Ex ante – ex post evaluation Factors limiting implementation Process Use Output Constraints Outcomes Context Modelling/assessment Enablers

Framework for knowledge-based policy (Knowledge) practices Policy making Assessment Implementation Outcomes Guidance of action both now and in future. Design: purposes, execution plan, evaluation measures Execution: evaluation of implementation, evaluation of design, evaluation of means Follow-up: overall evaluation (including all previous + outcomes) Process Product Use Interaction Design Execution Follow-up Evaluation & management

Framework for knowledge-based policy Focus on knowledge support to decision making Decision maker needs Expert knowledge Local knowledge Opinions, views, perspectives, values → collaborative knowledge creation Evaluation and management of effectiveness -> proactive guidance of decisions and actions both now and in the future

Engagement & Interaction

Collaboration & openness

Transparency & effectiveness Dimensions of openness Scope of participation Access to information Timing of openness Scope of contribution Impact of contribution

Transparency & effectiveness Properties of good assessment Quality of content Applicability Relevance Availability Usability Acceptability Efficiency

Evaluation & management Relative evaluation approach Co-development of practices Multiple perpsectives Evaluation of plan Evaluation of implementation Evaluation of outcomes

Conclusions Lankinen, et al.: State research institutes and research funding: proposal on a comprehensive reform: “Preparation, decision-making and implementation of policy should be based on researched information and evidence.…the use of research- based information in social policy decision-making, must be strengthened” Nuutinen et al.: The state of scientific research in Finland: Structural development of institutions of higher education and research institutes must be continued Data collected with public funding should be made as freely available as possible

Conclusions Pohjola M.V.: Assessments are to change the world - Prerequisites for effective environmental health assessment: Common practices of environmental health assessment are insufficient. Policy decisions are not based on best available knowledge. Collaboration, openness, practical problem framing, application of science also in development of solutions is needed in assessment- policy-society interaction. Methods and tools of assessment as well as public attitudes already enable open, transparent and collaborative policy support. A cultural change in assessment and particularly policy making is still required. The focus of future development shall be set particularly on developing practices of effective use of knowledge in policy making.

Thank you!