World economy and international markets Presentation Dr. Gonzalo Sanz-Magallón Rezusta 2017-2018

The long run (structural approach) Two main problems: The short term The long run (structural approach)

Contents

Contents

Grades PARAMETER TO ASSESS PERCENTAGE Country report Mid-term exam, Kahoot tests, participation. 25% 15% 10% Final exam 50% FINAL RESULTS FOR THE COURSE 100

World economy and international markets Introduction: What are the problems to study? Dr. Gonzalo Sanz-Magallón Rezusta 2017-2018

Economic situation report Objetive: 1. The short-term analysis Indicators: Economic situation report 1 2 4 Output Employment Domestic demand 5 3 Balance of payments Prices and wages External demand International economy 6 Private sector borrowing needs 7 Public administration Public administration borrowing needs Monetary indicators

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Spanish GDP p.h. as a % of the EU average. 1961-2008

Income Per Capita in Selected Countries (2008) 1. The Long-term analysis. 1.1. Indicators Income Per Capita in Selected Countries (2008)

1. The long-term analysis. 1.1. Indicators GDP/Population = [GDP / Employment] x [Employment /Population ] (Productivity) (Employment ratio)

1. The Long-term analysis. 1.2. Variables to study

1. The Long-term analysis. Commonality and Diversity: Some Basic Indicators

1. The Long-term analysis. Regional dimensions

1. The Long-term analysis. Regional dimensions Human Development Disparities within Selected Countries

1. The Long-term analysis. 1.1. Indicators Income and Happiness: Comparing Countries

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Indicators to study in the country-report project: 1.1 GDP composition (% agriculture, % industry, %services): World Bank Database 2.2 GDP per head, productivity & competitiveness: Global Competitiveness Report

2. Indicators to study in the country-report project: Demography Conclusions Sources Population size and growth (last 10 years) Birth rate; Death; Child mortality Age dependancy ratio (old & young) Inmigrants (% total population) Employment (% agriculture, industry, servicies) Effects on labour market Public expenditure: Pensions, education, … World Bank: Development indicators database; Gapminder database Public spending in education (% GDP), adult literacy rate Cuantitative Human capital investment (past trends and forecasts) Highest educational attainment OECD Education at a glance 2014 PISA-2012 (math, reading, science) results Qualitative human capital investment PISA-OECD Total early-stage Entrepreneurial Activity, Entrepreneurial Intention Entrepreneurial attitudes Global Enterpreneurship monitor People values and attitudes (trade, business, wealth, etc.) Recomendations for investors/negociators Negotiating international business

General conclusions about: 3. Country report: External sector & trade analysis Sources: Indicators: Evolution of trade ratio to GDP Evolution of total trade Total export growth; Marginal export growth; FDI; http://www.intracen.org/ http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/ Exports composition (2014) Exports evolution total and by product (1996-2014) Exports evolution per capita (1996-2014) Exports net composition (2014) Exports. Countries of destination Exports. Countries of destination (NET) Same for Imports …… --- http://www.tradingeconomics.com/ Terms of trade General conclusions about: Openess level. X & M over GDP; X & M per capita Specialization patterns and export diversification (% of 2/3 main export industries) Main trade partners Exports growth and its causes Terms of trade Is the country taking advantage of the opportunities from international trade?