Cedefop’s European Skills Forecasting Model

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Presentation transcript:

Cedefop’s European Skills Forecasting Model Konstantinos POULIAKAS Expert, CEDEFOP World Skills conference 2015 (WSC) Sao Paulo, Brazil, 12 August 2015

33 countries (EU28 + NO, CH, IS, CCs) What and why? Imbalances Demand: Supply: 33 countries (EU28 + NO, CH, IS, CCs) 41 NACE sectors 5 year age bands 21 ISCO occupations Gender 3 broad ISCED level 3 broad ISCED levels Replacement needs Projections of skill supply and demand trends up to 2025 Comparable across countries using harmonised data Informs skills and labour market policies by providing LMI/policy scenarios  support to policy community Mandate from Council (every 2 years) Validation via Skillsnet network Quantitative models can: help to make assumptions about the future explicit and transparent; help to reinforce systematic and logical thinking and act as a focus for intelligent debate; provide a useful counterfactual to assess policy impacts (i.e. what would have happened in the case of the presence or the absence of the policy intervention). But they are not intended to provide: background for mechanistic “manpower” planning; precise indications of education and training requirements; any detailed information that goes beyond the already available set of data.

Framework of Cedefop model: How?

Source: Cedefop (2015)

Source: Cedefop (2015)

OECD-Cedefop-ETF-ILO project on Assessing and responding to skill needs Cedefop has tried analysis of occupational skill profiles Currently online job vacancies …conventional reliance on levels of qualifications/types… …with significant difficulties in extending to (occupational) skills profiles? Source: OECD (2015)

Barriers to efficient use… OECD-Cedefop-ETF-ILO project on Assessing and responding to skill needs Barriers to efficient use… Common uses Decide course provision or funding Provide information to students Developing on-the-job and re-training programmes Develop apprenticeship programmes Informing migration policy But uncommon uses Developing tax incentives for workers or employers Inform collective bargaining processes Up- or re-skilling of teachers Source: OECD (2015)

Assessing and responding to skill needs Elements of success Effective skills needs anticipation Stakeholder involvement (Design, dissemination, development of policy response) Acknowledge available infrastructure and resources Embed in wider economic development strategy Dissemination to wide audience Adjust level of disaggregation to level of policy Follow-up

For more information: Konstantinos.Pouliakas@cedefop.europa.eu www.cedefop.europa.eu