Thanksgiving More Food, More Football, More Shopping

Retail to Rise to the Occasion As they are every year, retailers were nervous about the 2014 holiday season; however, total sales increased 4% to $616.1 billion. In fact, holiday sales have been steadily rising since 2009’s $500.7 billion, increasing 23% during the six-year period. Although there have been many bright spots in the economy during 2015, it’s been similar to 2014’s. This prompted the National Retail Federation (NRF) to change its retail forecast for 2015 from a 4.1% increase to a 3.5% increase. Kiplinger’s 2015 retail forecast is 4.5%, based on strong growth in housing and unemployment declining to 5.1% by year’s end. The US Energy Information Administration predicts the cost of a gallon of gas will be $2.27 by December. MEDIACENTER

Shoppers Spreading Their Dollars The number of consumers starting their holiday shopping much earlier continues to increase. Before September 2014, it was 12% and during October 2014 it was 22%, but November was still when most started shopping, at 41%. Research from Civic Science suggests that retailers should target middle-aged women with their advertising during the fall. The survey data revealed that 51% cite TV advertising as influencing their purchases more than Internet ads or social media posts. During the Thanksgiving weekend, Civic Science recommends that retail advertising should be skewed to slightly younger women, but with a target audience, 25–54. Those 24 and younger tend to shop on Thanksgiving Day and are attracted primarily to sales. MEDIACENTER

The Herd Mentality on Thanksgiving Day Data from ShopperTrak found that retail store traffic increased 27% on Thanksgiving Day 2014, but decreased 6% on Black Friday, thus resulting in a net decrease of 0.5% for the two days. In an interesting application of game theory, a comScore analyst found that it would be better for two hypothetical retailers to remain closed on Thanksgiving; however, competition forces them to be open, which results in weaker sales performance. Fred’s, a southeast US discount chain of approximately 700 stores and 300 pharmacies, decided to close for Thanksgiving 2014, although it was open for Thanksgiving 2013. The decision resulted in a 2.3% decrease in November 2014 same-store sales. MEDIACENTER

On the Trail of Bird Deals November 2014 research found that 32 percent of Millennials, 25–34, were more likely to shop brick-and-mortar retailers Thanksgiving Day, the largest age group, while 63 percent of Millennials, 18–24, were more likely to shop these retailers Black Friday. Additional Civic Science 2014 data revealed that 5 percent of shoppers said they would do all their shopping in stores Black Friday; 5 percent, most of their shopping; 5 percent, half in stores and half online; and 7 percent, all online. According to the NRF, coupons, at 38 percent, had the most influence on which stores consumers shopped during the 2014 holidays; followed by TV/broadcast, 22 percent; email advertising 21.5 percent; word of mouth, 18 percent; and direct mail, 16 percent. MEDIACENTER

Online Shines According to comScore, Thanksgiving Day online spending from home and work desktop computers has increased 166% from 2008 to 2013, and then increased 32% from 2013’s $766 million to $1.099 billion for 2014, the largest amount ever. Although online sales during November and December 2014 were only one-sixth of in- store spending, online sales increased 6.8%, compared to 2013, while in-store spending increased 4.0% year-over-year. Even before Thanksgiving 2014, consumers had spent $17.52 billion online via their home and work desktop computers during the first 23 days of November, which was an 11% increase, compared to $15.78 billion for 2013. MEDIACENTER

Feasting on Mobile According to iovation, an anti-fraud software company, “37% of retail online transactions from Black Friday to Cyber Monday 2014 were made from mobile phones and tablets.” During Thanksgiving Day, IBM said mobile traffic, at 52.1%, was more than desktop traffic, at 47.9%, for the first time. Black Friday mobile traffic was 49.6% and Cyber Monday mobile traffic increased 30%, compared to 2013. Although ShopperTrak data revealed that 2014 Thanksgiving and Black Friday sales decreased 0.5%, adding desktop and mobile sales actually resulted in a 4.0% increase. MEDIACENTER

Advertising Strategies November to maximize their share of early holiday spending with concentrated TV spots and weekend-only specials from Thursday through early Sunday afternoon. Thanksgiving weekend 2015 is when retailers must finally integrate their TV advertising with online and mobile by pitching online and/or mobile-only deals and directing consumers to a Suggest to retailers that they designate a weekend during September, October and early online landing page with a coupon that they can only access by watching the TV spots. With such a significant number of teens and young adults at stores and malls during the late evening hours of Thanksgiving, retailers can attract more of them with live music, free Wi-Fi service and free downloads of games and other apps that normally charge a fee. MEDIACENTER

Social Media Strategies Retailers must start planning during late summer their comprehensive Thanksgiving weekend digital media marketing, with email-only coupons to current customers, social media-only specials that change throughout the day and mobile- friendly promotions. People love to read stories in social media posts. Retailers can invite visitors of their pages to post a meaningful Thanksgiving story they experienced, and then ask everyone to vote on the best, with a prize for the winner and a special offer for those who participated. People are attracted to videos that show how a product works and its benefits, so retailers should create videos for any new products in their stores, and then close them with a call-to- action for a special price on the new product when purchased during the weekend. MEDIACENTER

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