Collective and State Violence During the Second Intifada: The Limits of Rational Choice Theory Robert Brym SD Clark Professor of Sociology University of Toronto Presented at the University of Siena, Italy 19 May 2016

Monthly trends for Israeli and Palestinian deaths, January 1987 - December 2007 Ratio of Palestinian to Israeli deaths (avg. = 4.3:1) 9.9:1 1.6:1 3.1:1 4.8:1 r = 0.629

Suicide bombing in the second intifada: causal mechanisms by type (in percent) causal type causal mechanism Reaction to specific Israeli acts of violence Initiative aimed at achieving tactical/ strategic goal Total Bomber motive 71 30 101* Organizational rationale 59 41 100 Event precipitant 82 18 *Does not equal 100 because of rounding.

Explaining violent action in three stages Utility-maximizing principle(s) 1 2 Variation in violent action Subjectively good reason(s) 3 Historically contingent circumstance(s)

Political assassinations during the second intifada Name Org Date Jewish Deaths, Suicide Attacks, Preceding Month (avg. = 2.4) Thabit Thabit Fatah 31-12-00 Jamal Salim Hamas 31-07-01 2 Jamal Mansur Abu Ali Mustafa PFLP 27-08-01 15 Jihad Ahmed Jibril PFLP-GC 20-05-02 17 Salah Shehadeh 22-07-02 1 Ibrahim al-Maqadma 08-03-03 14 Ismail Abu Shanab 21-08-03 25 Ahmed Yassin 22-03-04 18 Abdel Aziz al-Rantissi 17-04-04 Izz al-Din Khalil 26-09-04

Explaining state-directed assassination deterrence and compellence Utility-maximizing principle(s) state-directed assassination of operatives and political leaders 1 2 Variation in violent action Subjectively good reason(s) preventing the formation of a non-subservient palestinian state 3 Historically contingent circumstance(s) low u.s. pressure to descalate; low internal pressure to deescalate

Explaining state-directed assassination deterrence and compellence Utility-maximizing principle(s) state-directed assassination of operatives and political leaders 1 2 Variation in violent action Subjectively good reason(s) preventing the formation of a non-subservient palestinian state 3 Historically contingent circumstance(s) low u.s. pressure to descalate; low internal pressure to deescalate