NMME Program Development

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Presentation transcript:

NMME Program Development Jin Huang Chief, Earth System Science and Modeling (ESSM) Division NOAA Climate Program Office A community effort attributing to the NMME Team, CTB, NCEP, CPO/MAPP, DOE, NASA, NSF, Canada, and Sandy Supplemental Fund September 13, 2017 NMME/SubX Workshop

Outline History Current Status Beyond 2018?

Realtime Experimental NMME System The two NMME Workshops Established Collaboration Developed the NMME Protocol Decided to test a distributed system Became Real-Time in August 2011 Adhering to NOAA Operational Schedule Distributing data (Hindcast and Forecast Data) to NOAA operation and the community Funded as CPO MAPP-CTB research project with contributions from NSF, DOE and NASA (FY11; FY12-13) and Sandy Supplemental Fund. A MAPP-CTB priority in CPO FY12 FFO NMME Partners University of Miami COLA NCAR IRI U of Colorado – CIRES NASA – GMAO NOAA/NCEP NOAA/GFDL Princeton University Canada Multi-Institutional Support

Current Status: Operational NMME System Became operational in Sept. 2015 The MAPP-CTB post-project review for NMME in Sept. 2014 MOU between NCEP and participating modeling centers signed for Sept. 2015-Aug. 2018 Continuing to provide multi-model numerical guidance to NCEP/CPC operational forecasters Model upgrade during the operational period GFDL: CM2.1 => FLOR NCAR-CCSM3 => CCSM4 New: NCAR-CESM1

Current Status: Rapid Data Availability to the Public CPC NMME page: real-time forecast and verification IRI data library support and monthly reforecast data NCAR ESG Node: Phase-II daily data Real-time and operational (2011 – present) daily data (limited 13 fields; distribution through NCEI is in progress)

Current Status: Ongoing Prediction Research Real-time NMME prediction: Motivating research, for example: Warm ENSO Predictions of 2014-15 vs. 2015-16 Cold ENSO Phase 2016-17 Are Historical and Real-Time Skill Measures Comparable CPO MAPP continuous support to NMME and S2S research including FY15 one-year mini projects on NMME evaluation and application FY16 S2S prediction research projects (S2S Task Force) FY16 Sub-seasonal MME experiment (SubX)

What’re the Needs and Strategy for NMME beyond 2018? The MOU for operational NMME will expire in September 2018. What are the needs and strategy to sustain NMME beyond 2018? which models? Supported by whom? Is the current data dissemination strategy working? What are the research needs to improve NMME? What’s the mechanism to continuously upgrade the models? Can NMME go beyond MME of opportunities? Is it a good idea to merge NMME and SubX research components? What is the strategy to address prediction issues faced in NMME operations? for example, Why did all the models do poorly in the west coast US rainfall during the previous warm event? Is it a model resolution problem? model physics? Is the west coast rainfall predictable?