Pictures taken by: João Yield gaps of maize: why are they important and how does IMAGINE address them Martin van Ittersum, Michiel van Dijk, Pytrik Reidsma, Roel Jongeneel and other members of project team Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, April 27, 2017 PR: I suggest to have the names of Kindie and Marloes on top, and others added below Pictures taken by: João

Outline Can sub-Saharan Africa and Ethiopia feed itself? Developments and Policies in Ethiopia The IMAGINE project The IMAGINE Yield gap framework

Martin van Ittersum, Lenny van Bussel – Plant Production Systems group Patricio Grassini, Ken Cassman – University of Nebraska-Lincoln GYGA team, including ten country agronomists from SSA Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself? and Ethiopa? Martin van Ittersum, Lenny van Bussel – Plant Production Systems group Patricio Grassini, Ken Cassman – University of Nebraska-Lincoln Samuel Adjei-Nsiah - IITA, Kindie Tesfaye – CIMMYT GYGA team, including ten country agronomists from SSA Van Ittersum et al., 2016. PNAS

Current self-sufficiency ratios cereals - 2010 Source: FAOstat

Current self-sufficiency cereals SSA - 2010 Source: IMPACT model

Growth in population 2050 From 0.45 to 1.2 billion (2.6 times)

Growth in population and cereal demand - 2050 A factor 3.4 increase!

How to increase cereal production Increase on existing agricultural land Irrigation and multiple crops per year Expansion of agricultural land

Production-ecological principles & practice Breeding and bio- Techno- logy Defining factors CO2 radiation temperature crop genetics potential production Limiting factors water nutrients (N,P,K) limited production Reducing factors weeds pests diseases pollutants actual production yield increasing measures yield gap yield protecting measures yield level PRODUCTION SITUATION Van Ittersum and Rabbinge, 1997 Slide: Harrie Lovenstein

Yield gaps Photo: Ken Gillerr

Global Yield Gap Atlas www.yieldgap.org With University of Nebraska, ICRISAT, AfricaRice, CIMMYT and many regional and national partners Major food crops in the world Global protocol with local application Local data and evaluation Strong agronomic foundation Co-financed by Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation www.yieldgap.org

02/08/2018 www.yieldgap.org

02/08/2018 www.yieldgap.org

Cereal self-sufficiency - 2050

Cereal self-sufficiency - 2050

Ethiopia Agriculture production has recorded a remarkable growth between 2004 and 2014, on average by 7.6 percent per year (Bachewe et al., 2015) www.yieldgap.org

Actual maize yields in Ethiopia

Required increase maize yields - Ethiopia

Policy context Ethiopia (general) Ethiopia has set an ambitious growth and transformation plan GTPII (2015-2020) with focus on poverty reduction and growing the agricultural sector Agriculture recognized as a main pillar Development activities undertaken by the smallholder farmers and pastoralists Gradual shift in emphasis towards high value crops and livestock production complemented by the establishment of a market system that benefits farmers and non-farm rural actors Expanding the development of small and medium scale agro based manufacturing enterprises

Policy context Ethiopia (crop production) Within GTP there are currently several mega programs including: 1) Agricultural Growth Program (AGP), 2) Sustainable Land Management Project (SLMP), 3) Food Security Program (FSP), and 4) the Pastoral Community Development Project (PCDP). Focus on improving the production and productivity of the sector to enhance domestic agricultural production Research and extension: Nine regional agricultural research institutes with a total of some 69 research centers under them. Concerted government spending in extension has also established nearly 10,000 Farmer Training Centers (FTCs) and trained over 63,000 Development Agents

Farm level issues Ethiopia Ethiopia has a market-oriented policy approach No policy measures that creates financial incentives (e.g. price support or input price subsidies) No direct financial services (credit) But enhancing access to market information Provision of extension services Gvt participation in seed and fertilizer markets Border measure policies (duties and exemptions) Farm management optimization and strengthening the agronomic knowledge base and its application are crucial to achieve the growth targets

Research questions IMAGINE What is a scientifically sound and applicable generic framework linking agronomic, socio-economic, institutional, infrastructural and policy factors, explaining maize yield gaps in SSA? What are the main biophysical and farm and crop management factors that help to explain yield gaps in Ethiopia and Ghana? What are the main infrastructural, institutional, socio-economic and policy factors that explain farm and crop management and consequently yield gaps? Which policies and farm management options are key for increasing yield performance in Ethiopia and Ghana?

Design of IMAGINE Methodology development Regional and national analyses in Ethiopia and Ghana Based on: National surveys Local surveys Ethiopia: Adami Tulu, Bako Tibe Demonstration experiments

Five different yield levels to benchmark farmer performance Yield (tons/ha) Biophysical maximum production level (climate, CO2, water) Water-limited. potential yield Yield gap Best-practice + no economic constraints on inputs Feasible yield Economic yield Best-practice + profit-maximizing Technical efficient yield Best-practice Actual yield Observed yield at the plot Sliva et al., 2017 Van Dijk et al., 2017

Policies to close the yield gap(s) Yield (tons/ha) Main causes Policies Potential yield Yield gap Technology Yield gap Agricultural innovation system and broader institutional, technological, economic and social factors Investment in applied agricultural research and development programs Feasible yield Economic Yield gap Transaction and transportation costs Investment in rural roads Policies to decrease transaction costs Economic yield Allocative Yield gap Knowledge and financial constraints, risk issues and information asymmetries Credit & insurance Expand agro-dealer networks Support market information Land tenure systems Smart input subsidies Technical efficient yield Technical efficiency yield gap Suboptimal crop management caused by knowledge, skills and information gaps. Improve extension services Stimulate knowledge transfer from best practice to average farmers Actual yield Sliva et al., 2017 Van Dijk et al., 2017

02/08/2018 Thank you for your attention © http://www.riennijboer.nl/