Chris.kavalec@energy.state.ca.us / 916-654-5184 California Energy Demand (CED) 2011 Revised Electricity and Natural Gas Forecast SMUD February 7, 2012.

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Presentation transcript:

Chris.kavalec@energy.state.ca.us / 916-654-5184 California Energy Demand (CED) 2011 Revised Electricity and Natural Gas Forecast SMUD February 7, 2012 Chris Kavalec Demand Analysis Office Electricity Supply Analysis Division Chris.kavalec@energy.state.ca.us / 916-654-5184

SMUD Electricity Sales Average annual growth of 1.68%, 1.32%, and 1.11% from 2011-2020 in the high, mid, and low scenarios, respectively, compared to 1.29% in the 2009 IEPR forecast (CED 2009) Lower starting point vs. CED 2009 Lower growth rates 2011-2022 in all three cases versus preliminary Econometric sales forecast lower in all 3 cases (1.9% lower in mid case in 2022)

SMUD Electricity Sales: CED 2011 Revised vs. CED 2009

SMUD Electricity Sales: CED 2011 Revised vs SMUD Electricity Sales: CED 2011 Revised vs. CED 2011 Preliminary (Mid Case)

SMUD Electricity Sales: CED 2011 Revised vs SMUD Electricity Sales: CED 2011 Revised vs. Econometric Forecast (Mid Case)

SMUD Peak Demand Average annual growth of 1.93%, 1.52%, and 0.99% from 2011-2020 in the high, mid, and low scenarios, respectively, compared to 1.20% in the 2009 IEPR forecast (CED 2009) Lower starting point vs. CED 2009 Higher in all mid and high cases vs. preliminary 2011 forecast (by 1 percent in mid case in 2022) Econometric forecast higher in all three cases (3.1% higher in mid case in 2022)

SMUD Peak Demand: CED 2011 Revised vs. CED 2009

SMUD Peak Demand: CED 2011 Revised vs. CED 2011 Preliminary (Mid Case)

SMUD Peak Demand: CED 2011 Revised vs. Econometric Forecast (Mid Case)

SMUD TV Standards Savings

SMUD Electric Vehicles

SMUD Self-Generation Peak Impacts