Brexit means Brexit? Divided UK, Divided City Nancy Kelley Director, Policy Research Centre nancy.kelley@natcen.ac.uk NatCen is the UK’s largest independent social research institute and a charity in our own right, known for our rigour and objectivity. We use research to improve our understanding of society, to throw light on the views and experiences of individuals and communities and to make a difference. For over 40 years, our research has helped national and local government, civil society organisations and the wider social sector make evidence based decisions. This presentation is based two things: first a project exploring the political social attitudes of people on low incomes (JRF/NatCen). The project was made up of: secondary analysis of the British Social Attitudes Survey and Understanding Society; data from the UK’s first random probability panel; and a deep dive case study in a low income community. Second, a small piece of analysis we’ve done for today’s talk, looking at London versus the rest of the UK. I’m going to: Reflect a little on the stories we told ourselves before the referendum happened (and the stories we’ve told ourselves since) Show you some data that shed light on the question of the way in which the UK, and London might be (or not be) divided Reflect on the range of ways in which we might understand and respond to the data. 20/9/2016

What kind of stories have we been telling ourselves? That there would be a narrow vote for ‘remain’, and that London would (in large part) drive that outcome That the vote for leave’ is a result of communities being left behind from 1980s onwards, a reaction to our political culture and settlement, a statement about the impact of immigration on UK life and culture. Trust MPs to act in the nation’s best interest: 2000 31% and 2013 40%, compared to 23% and 30% for the higher income group 2000 49% said MPs almost never tell the trust rising to 61% in 2013 (compared to 45 and 50% in the higher income group)  .

The politics of poverty 1.

Party loyalties by income group People on low incomes are more likely to support Labour, less likely to support the Conservatives and more likely to have no overall affiliation compared to higher income peers. There is *some change – Labour support is in a slow long term decline amongst both lower and higher income groups (note data only runs to 2015). But as of 2015 data we aren’t seeing anything like a collapse – tribal political loyalties appear to be holding up. .

Interest in politics by income group Interest in politics among people on low incomes is much lower than for higher income groups. But, as for the higher income groups, it is rising (slowly). .

4.Trust in politicians by income group People on low incomes are significantly less likely to trust MP’s to put the best interests of the nation above their own interests. They are also significantly less likely to trust their MPs to tell the truth. The percentage of people on low incomes who don’t trust MPs to act in the nation’s best interest is rising from 31% in 2000 to 40% in 2013. This compares to 23% and 30% for the higher income group. The percentage of people on low incomes who don’t trust MPs to tell the truth is also rising. From 49% in 2000 to 61% in 2013 (compared to 45 and 50% in the higher income group) .

3. Should Britain Leave the EU? This graph shows some of the data from a 5 part question about membership of the EU that has been a long running part of BSA. People are asked whether they think we should: Leave the EU Stay and reduce powers Stay as is Stay and increase powers Work towards a single European government There are 3 really interesting things about this graph People living in poverty are much more likely to say we should leave the EU rather than stay and reduce its powers The percentage of people who want to *leave the EU has never been higher than 40% over the last 15 years – even amongst the far more Brexit oriented lower income group. This has very significant implications for how we think about the success of the Leave campaign and the failure of the Remain one. This is not a picture that necessarily supports a narrative of ‘left behind communities’ It’s a picture that represents a significant level of Euroscepticism over the long term. If we drew this graph backwards to 1973, what would we see? In the 1975 referendum on continued membership of the EEC, 33% voted leave. .

Is London really an island? 2.

Maybe not… Over the last three years there was only one year (2013) in which London appeared more pro-EU than other regions In both 2014 and 2015, there is no statistically significant difference between London and the rest of the UK when it comes to Britain’s membership of the EU So its not clear that the referendum outcome in London (59.9% Remain) was driven by attitudes to the EU itself . This apparent difference was really being driven by Scotland and Wales at either extreme.

But…. 3.

How much do you trust MPs to tell the truth? Londoners as a whole are dramatically more trusting of politicians. Perhaps this is proximity? Perhaps it is a consequence of London’s economic and social success (the political class has servced Londoners better in fact)? Perhaps it’s the flip side of the *perception that the political class is London centric? Whatever is driving this differnce, it is *very striking.

Immigration is good for Britain’s economy And they feel *dramatically differently about the relationship between immigration and the economy.

How much control do you have over the issues you care about? Londoners as a whole are dramatically more trusting of politicians. Perhaps this is proximity? Perhaps it is a consequence of London’s economic and social success (the political class has servced Londoners better in fact)? Perhaps it’s the flip side of the *perception that the political class is London centric? Whatever is driving this differnce, it is *very striking.

“I think, [there were] two Polish ladies looking and there was only, I don't know, two places, and Shelly never got a place because the two Polish kids got a place because they were nearer the school and that kind of did piss me off….I was kind of like, well it sounds really awful, well I was kind of like ‘that’s not fair’”

“There’s no nativity plays now and I do think that's unfair, because obviously it is a British country” “There’s no nativity plays now and I do think that's unfair, because obviously it is a British country” “

Thank you If you want further information or would like to contact the author, Nancy Kelley Director of Policy Research Centre T. 020 7000 7179 E. nancy.kelley@natcen.ac.uk Visit us online, natcen.ac.uk