Risk, uncertainty and ignorance in technological design

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Presentation transcript:

Risk, uncertainty and ignorance in technological design Introduction to Innovation Sebastiaan van Delft

Why is this important? Faced with risk-analysis with every (new) technology or innovation

Risk Colloquial meaning Scientific meaning

Uncertainty and ignorance Donald Rumsfeld: Distinction between risk and uncertainty Objective probability Subjective probability Risk Uncertainty Ignorance Known Unknown

How to deal with it? Risk Risk-analysis; cost-benefit analysis Maximizing expected utility Ignorance Uncertainty Precautionary approach

Precautionary approach Case nuclear power plant

Precautionary approach Case GMO’s

How to decide? Discussion Interdisciplinary approach

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