Demographic Transition Model

A. Identify and provide an example for 3 types of diffusion B. Identify the type of diffusion a zombie apocalypse would be. Explain the process of diffusion in this instance C. Explain the effects of a zombie apocalypse on the cultural landscape

AIM: How does a country progress through the DTM? DO NOW: Predict: what factors lead to a stable population? What factors lead to an unstable population? Learning Objectives: Describe the 5 stages of the DTM Identify countries in each stage of the DTM Evaluate the factors which allow a country to reach a new stage of the DTM

Population Change in England and Wales 1700-2000

Natural increase is the balance between birth rates and death rates Population Change Outputs Inputs Deaths Births Natural Increase Total Population Emigrants Immigrants Migration The total population of an area is the balance between 2 forces of change: natural increase and migration Natural increase is the balance between birth rates and death rates

World Population Changes

Global Natural Increase

Doubling Time This map shows how long it will take for countries to double their population if it continued to grow at the present rate

Demographic Transition Model Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5 ? Total Population Natural Increase In Population Natural Decrease In Population Birth Rate Death Rate

Stage 1 High Fluctuating Low population Increasing very slowly High birth rate High death rate Tribes (Amazonia) UK: pre-1780 Stage 1 Birth Rate Death Rate Total Population

Stage 2 Early Expanding Population growing at faster rate High but decreasing birth rate Decreasing death rate Sri Lanka/Bolivia UK: 1780-1880 Birth Rate Death Rate Total Population

Stage 3 Late Expanding Stage 3 Population still increasing, but rate of increase slowing down Decreasing birth rate Low death rate Uruguay/China UK: 1880-1940 Total Population Birth Rate Death Rate

Stage 4 Low Fluctuating High population, almost stable Low birth rate Low death rate Canada/USA UK: post-1940 Total Population Birth Rate Death Rate

Many Stage 4 countries are experiencing a condition known as Zero Population Growth (ZPG). This is when birth rates are equal to death rates. A TFR of 2.1 produces ZPG.​

Demographic Transition Model Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Total Population Natural Increase In Population Natural Decrease In Population Birth Rate Death Rate Amazonian Tribes UK: pre-1780 Sri Lanka/ Bolivia UK: 1780-1880 Uruguay/ China UK: 1880-1940 Canada/ USA UK: Post-1940

What do you think the reasons are for the changes at each stage?

Reasons for Stage 1 High Fluctuating Little access to birth control Many children die in infancy so parents have more to compensate Children are needed to work on the land Some religions encourage large families Death rates are high due to disease, famine, poor diet, poor hygiene, little medical science Stage 1 Birth Rate Death Rate Total Population

Reasons for Stage 2 Early Expanding Improvements in medical care Improvements in sanitation and water supply Quality and quantity of food produced improves Transport and communications improve movements of food and medical supplies Decrease in infant mortality Birth Rate Death Rate Total Population

Reasons for Stage 3 Late Expanding Increased access to contraception Lower infant mortality rates so less need for bigger families Industrialisation and mechanisation means fewer labourers required As wealth increases, desire for material possessions takes over the desire for large families Equality of women means they can follow a career rather than just staying at home Stage 3 Total Population Birth Rate Death Rate

AIM: Is the DTM valid? Do Now: How do we move from stage 1 to stage 2? How do we move from stage 2 to stage 3? Objectives: SWBAT describe the 5 stages SWBAT evaluate the accuracy of the DTM by considering it’s merits and limitations SWBAT accurately depict and describe a family in a respective stage of the DTM

Reasons for Stage 4 Low Fluctuating Rates fluctuate with ‘baby booms’ and epidemics of illnesses and diseases Reasons for Stage 3 have improved and it stabilises Total Population Birth Rate Death Rate

Stage 5: Declining (or Depleting) Population Is there a Stage 5? ? ? ? Stage 5: Declining (or Depleting) Population

Stage 5 DESCRIPTIONS REASONS??? CDR larger than CBR Very developed countries “graying populations” High dependency ratio EX: Germany, Japan, Russia, Bulgaria, Italy REASONS??? Same as stage 4 Rise of DINKs More secular: contraception is not taboo

JAPAN is the ultimate example of a State 5 country. ​ As Japan has become more developed, its people have had ever fewer children; today, its population is in decline. ​ The population will decline from 127 million (2010) to 95 million (2050) unless rates change​ By 2050, most of Japan’s pop’n will be over 50 years old- a dependency ratio nightmare!​

AIM: How does an aging population affect a country? Do Now: Get out the chart from Friday and complete the questions with a partner HW: Project Due Thursday Learning Objectives: Describe the limitations of the DTM Construct a FRQ evaluating the effects of an aging population on a country Analyze global demographic and resource data

What limitations do you think there could be with the model? It does not include the influences of migration It assumes that all countries will go through the same pattern There is no time scale Reasons for birth rates and death rates are very different in different countries And finally, is there a stage 5?

DTM Families Activity Illustrate and name your family Where do they live? What are their living conditions like? How do they make earn a living? What types of resources do they have? What is going on with the total population around them? Why? Use VOCAB: CBR, CDR, IMF, LDC, MDC,etc

The End?