Achievable Penetration Rates The Pace of Conservation Acquisition April 17, 2009 Conservation Resources Advisory Committee
Outline in Two Parts Part 1 Part 2 Revisions to Ramp Rate Assumptions Sensitivity Testing slide 2
Revisions: Tamping Down Max Annual Rates Based on Comments & Further Thought slide 3
Revisions: Industrial Slowed down two important new measures: From New Measure - Fast to New Measure - Medium Energy Project Management Integrated Plant Energy Management Represent about 20% of industrial savings slide 4
Revisions: Distribution Efficiency Formerly All at “New Measure - Medium” Now: Split by Measure Bundle System Voltage by LDC method at New Measure - Fast System Voltage EOL method at New Measure - Slow Light System Improvements at New Measure - Slow Major System Improvements at New Measure - Slow slide 5
Revisions: Commercial Measure 30-Mar Previous LPD Package-New LO 20Fast LO Fast LPD Package-NR LO 20Fast LO Fast Lighting Controls Interior-New LO Medium LO Fast Lighting Controls Interior-NR LO Medium LO Fast Glass-Retro Retro in 20 Retro in 10 Demand Control Ventilation-NR LO Slow LO Medium Roof Insulation-NR LO Fast Retro in 10 Computer Servers and IT-Retro LO Slow LO Medium Street and Roadway Lighting-NR LO Slow LO Medium slide 6
Residential Consumer Electronics Heat Pump Water Heater New analysis adds 1000 MWa Potential over 20 years LO Medium Ramp Rate ~ 30 MWa per year by 2014 Heat Pump Water Heater Emerging Technology Ramp Rate slide 7
Results slide 8
Lost-Opportunity slide 9
Retrofit slide 10
Comparative Max Rates 6th PLAN 2010 2014 2019 Lost-Opportunity @ $100/MWh 35 120 200 Retrofit @ $60/MWh 140 160 Total 175 280 360 5th PLAN 2005 2009 2014 Lost-Opportunity @ $100/MWh 15 40 85 Retrofit @ $60/MWh 120 Total 135 160 205 slide 11
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Reality Check Achieved over 200 MWa in 2007 Expect higher in 2008 Most programs exceed 2007 & NEEA too Of the 200 MWa about 70 MWa was CFLs But CFL savings not in 6th Plan targets Many New Measures Higher Avoided Costs Federal Standards Push State Code Revisions in the Works slide 13
5th Plan Targets Seemed Daunting (130 to 150 MWa) Historic Performance slide 14
Part 2: Ramp Rate Sensitivity Testing Purpose: What is the Value of Going Faster? What is the Cost of Going Slower? What are the Resource Consequences? What are the Revenue Requirements? Tool: Portfolio Model Test Slow & Fast Achievable Penetration Issue: What Ranges? slide 15
Ramp Rate Sensitivity Testing Staff Proposal Lost-Opportunity SLOW: Up to $60 / MWh levelized cost FAST: Up to $120 / MWh levelized cost Non-Lost-Opportunity SLOW: 5th Plan Rate FAST: Washington I-937 rate All Cost-Effective in 10 years – evenly paced slide 16
Test Slow & Fast Deployment Rates Proposed Annual Maximum Limits on Deployment in MWa 2010 2014 2019 Lost-Opportunity SLOW Up to $60/MWh 29 100 168 Lost-Opportunity FAST Up to $120/MWh 36 123 206 Non-Lost Opportunity SLOW 5th Plan Maximum 120 Non-Lost Opportunity FAST All Cost-Effective @$60/MWh in 10 years (I-937) 160 slide 17
Annual Deployment Rates for Non-Lost Opportunity Resources slide 18
Annual Deployment Rate for Lost Opportunity Resources slide 19
Annual Deployment Rates for All Conservation Resources slide 20
Cumulative Deployment Rate for Non-Lost Opportunity Resources slide 21
Cumulative Deployment Rate for Lost Opportunity Resources slide 22
Cumulative Deployment Rate for All Resources slide 23
End slide 24