DO THE OLD THEORIES APPLY ANY MORE? Two big questions for social scientists: Will global politics in the 20th c. follow the rules of a new system? Do the standard theories of IR still predict state behavior?

WHAT IS THE POST COLD-WAR SYSTEM? The unipolar model: American liberal hegemony will endure Faltering unipolarism is in transition to multi- or bi-polar hegemony The “clash of civilizations” model Another two-worlds model: peace and turmoil The apolar model The globalization model: interconnectedness & interdependence Is this truly unprecedented? Is it unstopable?

FRIEDMAN’S VIEW OF GLOBALIZATION Defining technologies: Miniaturization, info. technology, and the internet, & transportation) The fundamental rules: The “Washington Consensus”; The “Golden Straightjacket” Defining structure of power: States, markets, individuals & intl. institutions Dominant institution: The firm Dominant ideas: Free market capitalism vs. state capitalism; Maybe democracy… but maybe not Dominant culture: Americanization? Demographic trends: Unprecedented movement, birth rates The measurement of power: How you are connected to everyone else The defining fear: Falling behind

BUT IS THE WORLD REALLY FLAT? Globalization is a choice? A little history and the current crisis Evidence that the world isn’t flat: Gehemawat’s 10% presumption Domestic foreign invest vs. Foreign dir. investment Portfolio investment, trade, patenting People and phone call revenue Even the internet is primarily domestic Why is globalization slowing down? Most states and most markets are domestic, and they have rooted interests (even the EU is an example) The stakes of globalization will affect global power Domestic politics fights back against globalization (in China, too) The big fights ahead: The limits of energy & water, climate warming, how much human rights should trump sovereignty, & globalizing the entire economy rather than just what the powerful countries want globalized.