2012 NWSA Annual Meeting 2012 Weather Forecast for the spring and summer months with a historical perspective.

2012 NWSA Annual Meetimg

Topics for Discussion: 2012 NWSA Annual Meeting Topics for Discussion: La Nina – where are we with this global event? Historical Perspective - 2011 Seasonal Forecast for 2012

2012 NWSA Annual Meeting What is Happening? ENSO – La niNA Sea surface temperature(SST) is slowly warming in 3.4 east Equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean. This means La Nina is weakening. The change is slow.

2012 NWSA Annual Meeting Hemispheric wind Global Currents

Historical Perspective 2012 NWSA Annual MEETING Historical Perspective

2012 NWSA Annual Meeting High elevation upper level jet stream from August this past summer. Shows the inland shift of the Gulf of Alaska upper low inland. La Nina was in a neutral state at this time.

2012 NWSA Annual Meeting High elevation water vapor image from August. Shows the positioning of highs and lows over the western US and eastern Pacific.

2012 NWSA Annual Meeting Last year(2011) Jan through June accumulated precipitation. La Nina effect over the northern tier states. Heaviest amounts were from January through May.

2012 NWSA Annual Meeting Accumulated Precip. April through September. Still seeing above average (A) precipitation over the northern tier states although La Nina has shift towards neutral.

2012 NWSA Annual Meeting Accumulated Precip. Through the summer fire season. Big difference when April, May , and June are deleted. We did have a few more wildfires in 2011 in the western U.S. But?

2012 NWSA Annual Summary Snow Pack 2010-2012

2012 NWSA Annual Meeting 2011 Quick look Fire Summary: Extreme Fire activity continues over Texas and Oklahoma. Parts of New Mexico. Western states Including the Pacific Northwest saw limited large fire activity. Late season lightning bust over Oregon, Idaho and western Montana a few larger wildfires. Washington had a peculiar situation as the amount of fires was near the long term average, but fire acreage was well below the long term average.

2012 NWSA Annual Meeting Now and into the future.

2012 NWSA Annual Meeting Pacific Northwest snowpack is below the long term average. The weather pattern over the next couple of months looks will continue to bring additional mountain snowpack.

2012 NWSA Annual Convention The persistent drought continues over the southern tier states. Drought is slowly expanding west as eastern Texas shows some improvement.

2012 NWSA Annual Meeting Western U.S Drought Monitor shows the lack of precipitation east of the Cascade Mountains. Could be an indication of what is in store for this summer.

Seasonal Long Lead Outlooks SLLO’s 2012 NWSA Annual Meeting Seasonal Long Lead Outlooks SLLO’s

2012 NWSA Annual Summary AMJ Temperature SLLO. Colder bias remains over Pac NW mainly western WA. Above average anomaly continues over the southern states. La Nina influence.

2012 NWSA Annual Meeting La Nino is entering a neutral phase as we move towards June. AMJ precipitation keeps the below average anomaly over the desert SW and over the extreme SE states. Rest are EC.

2012 NWSA Annual Meeting MJJ, temperature is expanding north from the desert SW. Rest of the western US is EC as La Nino is expected to weaken and remain in a neutral phase.

2012 NWSA Annual Meeting Below average anomaly for MJJ is now showing up over Eastern Wa, Idaho, eastern Or, Western Mt. Rest of the U.S. is EC.

2012 NWSA Annual Summary The JJA temperature SLLO continues to expand north into the Pac NW. Rest of the western states and across the southern states are all above (A) average.

2012 NWSA Annual Meeting The JJA precipitation anomaly has a (B)elow average area over the Pac NW. Rest of U.S. is EC.

2012 NWSA Annual Meeting The JAS temperature SLLO expands the (A) above average temperature anomaly into extreme SE British Columbia. Looks like a return to a more average map type for wildfire. With a moderate monsoon moisture push we will see lightning returning at the appropriate time.

2012 NWSA Annual Meeting For the JAS time frame, the Pac. NW is under the influence of a below(B)average precipitation anomaly The rest of the US is EC.

2012 NWSA Annual Meeting The ASO long lead keeps the thermal ridge about the same as the previous sllo. Equal Chances(EC) over WA and CA. Temperature anomaly is more robust than last year. Models are continuing to shift to a neutral ENSO.

2012 NWSA Annual Meeting 2011 ASO Temperature SLLO.

2012 NWSA Annual Meeting The SON: temperature outlook looks to be having issues with the Pac NW maintaining the warm air anomaly. May be a picture of a shortened fire season.

2012 NWSA Annual Meeting Model looks to be making an early shift into the fall as EC is now spread out over most of the US. SLLO is for SON.

2012 NWSA Annual Meeting Conclusions: All signs are pointing to a neutralization of this latest ENSO episode. (La Nina) SLLO’s are pointing to a drier and a little above average temperatures over the summer of 2012. Precipitation SLLO anomalies keep us below to near average during the late spring allowing green-up and cure out of fine fuels to occur in a more seasonal fashion. Finally, ignition prompted by monsoonal lightning will have the usual effect on the available to burn fuels.

2012 NWSA Annual Meeting Have a great 2012 summer fire season and remain SAFE. Are there any Questions or Comments?