On behalf of the Accelerator Project Phase II Team Accelerator and source division (ASD) mission Risk Assessment for the ESRF-EBS Dieter Einfeld On behalf of the Accelerator Project Phase II Team Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

Contents of presentation Accelerator and source division (ASD) mission Outline The ESRF – EBS Project Introduction to Risk Management The phases and areas of the project Planning Risks Risk Management for the WP’s Conclusion Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

The ESRF Side Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

New lattice vs present esrf lattice Present ESRF lattice Double Bend Achromat = (2 dipoles + 15 quad. sext.) per cell ID length = 5 m (standard) / 6m / 7m ESRF EBS lattice Hybrid 7 Bend Achromat = (4 dipoles + 3 dipoles-quad + 24 quad., sext., oct.) per cell ID length = 5 m Dipole Dipole present future Dipole Dipole Dipole Dipoles-quadrupoles Dipole 31 magnets per cell instead of 17 currently Free space between magnets (total for one cell): 3.4m instead of 8m today !! ESRF-EBS Progress Report, Trieste, 14th September, D.Einfeld

The goal is to assembly 1 cell per week Assembly Task 1 cell of the storage ring ESRF-EBS Overall we have 32 cells with 4 girders per ring Girder 2 DQ2&CH7 Girder 3 Girder 4 Girder 1 The task of the girder assembly is to bring together all the different components of one girder to one unit. The goal is to assembly 1 cell per week ESRF-EBS Progress Report, Trieste, 14th September, D.Einfeld

ESRF-EBS Organization Accelerator Project Office UP PI: Preparing the UP Phase II APO Accelerator Project Office APS ESRF-EBS Progress Report, Trieste, 14th September, D.Einfeld

Work packages for the Upgrade UP PI: Preparing the UP Phase II ESRF-EBS Progress Report, Trieste, 14th September, D.Einfeld

Master Plan and Major Milestones EBS master plan (2015-2020) Master Plan and Major Milestones 01/10/2017 – Start of assembly phase 17/12/2018 – Start of shutdown – Start of dismantling phase 18/03/2019 – End of dismantling phase – Start of installation phase January 2017-June 2018 – Delivery of components 04/11/2019 – End installation phase Mark periods/phases: Design/procurement, Pre-assembly, dismantling, installation 02/12/2019 – Start of storage ring commissioning phase_ 09/01/2020 – Start of beamline commissioning phase May-July 2020 – Friendly Users_ 25/08/2020 – Start of USM ESRF-EBS Progress Report, Trieste, 14th September, D.Einfeld

Time Schedule for Dismantling and Installation 1st April 2018 18th Nov. 2018 1st June 2018 2nd Dec. 2018 ESRF-EBS Progress Report, Trieste, 14th September, D.Einfeld

Time Schedule: Delivery Time and Assembly For the magnets we have a buffer between delivery and assembly of 2 - 5 months Other projects have experienced delays of 6 months for vacuum chambers and magnets, ie. a delay of 25% (on a 2-year period). We have only 12-15% of buffer! 3rd MAC MEETING – Risk Management - D. Einfeld

Time Schedule: Delivery Time and Assembly For the vacuum chambers we have a buffer between delivery and assembly of 1 - 4 months 3rd MAC MEETING – Risk Management - D. Einfeld

Time Schedule: Delivery Time and Assembly For the girders we have a buffer between delivery and assembly of 1 - 2 months 3rd MAC MEETING – Risk Management - D. Einfeld

Risk Management Risk is exposure to the consequences of uncertainty. In a project context, it is the chance of something happening that will have an impact upon objectives. It includes the possibility of loss or gain, or variation from the desired or planned outcome, as a consequence of the uncertainty associated with following a particular course of action. Risk thus has two elements: the likelihood or probability of something happening, and the consequences or impact if it does. Risk arise because of uncertainty about the future. Risk exposure may arise from the possibility of economic, financial or social loss or gain, physical damage or injury, or delay. It may also be caused by changes in the relationships between parties involved in the supply, ownership, operation and maintenance of assets for public or private purposes. The term “management” implies that risks are to be treated in an ordered fashion, rather than in a haphazard way. Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

Communicate and control Introduction The different steps for the risk management are: Establish the context - Identify - Analyse - Evaluate and Treat the risk Communicate and control Establish the context Objectives Stakeholders Criteria (performances) Define key elements Treat the risks Identify options Select the best responses Develop risk treatment plans Implement Analyse the risks Review controls Likelihoods Consequences Level of risks Identify the risks What can happen? How can it happen? Evaluate the risks Evaluate risks Rank risks Monitor and review Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

Areas and Phases of Risk Management Risk Management has to be done for the different areas of impact and phases of the ESRF EBS project Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

Accelerator Project Risk Management The risk management is: Analysis Evaluation  Treat risks  To be done for all work packages For all phases of the project: Design Procurement Production Assembly Installation Commissioning 1.) Introduction The risk management exists of the following steps: a.) Analysis -, b.) Evaluation - and c.) Treat of the risk. This has to be done for the different phases of the project: design -, call for tender- , production-, assembling-, installation – and commissioning phase. Furthermore it has to be done for all work packages. To minimize the risk of the project a “Machine Advisory Committee (MAC)” has been established to follow up the project and giving advices to possible risks with comments of mitigation. So far the MAC doesn’t see any show stopper or risk for the project. In order to minimize the risk, the project leader made the decision, to use so called “conventional technologies”. For any components no “new” or “non- proven” technology will be used, this is minimizing the risk too. The ESRF accelerator complex is running for more as 20 year very successful and a lot of upgrade processes have been done very successfully. Hence the ESRF-staff knows very well and has the expertise to make the right design of the different components. Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

Accelerator Project Risk Management However, the overall risk is reduced / minimized by: Machine Advisory Committee (MAC) Use of conventional technologies Expertise of ESRF staff All Synchrotron Light Sources reached there specifications Most of the Synchrotron Light Sources brought the 1st turn around the machine without any correctors The commissioning of the machines was done in a short time 1.) Introduction The risk management exists of the following steps: a.) Analysis -, b.) Evaluation - and c.) Treat of the risk. This has to be done for the different phases of the project: design -, call for tender- , production-, assembling-, installation – and commissioning phase. Furthermore it has to be done for all work packages. To minimize the risk of the project a “Machine Advisory Committee (MAC)” has been established to follow up the project and giving advices to possible risks with comments of mitigation. So far the MAC doesn’t see any show stopper or risk for the project. In order to minimize the risk, the project leader made the decision, to use so called “conventional technologies”. For any components no “new” or “non- proven” technology will be used, this is minimizing the risk too. The ESRF accelerator complex is running for more as 20 year very successful and a lot of upgrade processes have been done very successfully. Hence the ESRF-staff knows very well and has the expertise to make the right design of the different components. Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

Risk Assessment The risk assessment can be qualified by the PID–Matrix. Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

Risk Assessment according to the “book” Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

Risk Assessment The risk assessment can be qualified by the PID–Matrix and the Risk-Factor Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

Risk Assessment The risk factor is given as a function of Likelihood and Impact 0.00 - 0.05 : very low 0.05 – 0.40: low 0.40 – 0.70: medium 0.70 – 0.95: high 0.95 – 1.00: very high Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

Introduction: Risk List To get an overview of the risk for the project, I send an Excel file with some instruction to all work package leaders in order to fill out the following table (see below) Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

WP-00 Management: Risk List and Risks Factors Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

WP-00 Management - Risk List and Risks Factors Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

WP-01 & WP-02: Risk List and Risks Factors Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

WP-03 Mechanical Eng. - Risk List and Risk Factors Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

WP-04 Power Supply - Risk List and Risk Factors Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

WP-05 RF - Risk List and Risk Factors What does FAT and SAT mean? Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

WP-06 Control System – Risk List and Risk Factors Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

WP-07, WP-08 & WP-09: Risk List and Risks Factors Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

WP-Injection: Risk List and Risks Factors Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

WP-08 Photon Sources – Risk List and Risks Factors Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

WP-11 Buildings - Risk List and Risks Factors Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

WP-11 Implementation - Risk List and Risks Factors Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

WP-11 Implementation - Risk List and Risks Factors Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

WP-13 & ALGE - Risk Matrix and Risk Factors Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

Conclusions So far we made the identification, analysis and evaluation of the risks. According to this one can make the following statements: We don’t have risks in WP12 There aren’t any risk which are “high” or “almost certain”. The highest risks are in WP11 and WP00 The highest risks are “delays” with 28 tasks and “technical” with 11 tasks. Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

Conclusions The phases of the project: Design Procurement Production Assembly Installation Commissioning We have finished more or less the first 2 phases, which are “in house” responsibilities. Most critical for the delays is the production phase, which depends upon the companies. In order to minimize the risk during this phase, the contracts have to be followed up very closely. The assembly, installation and commissioning is again an “in house” responsibility. A detailed planning should reduce the risk Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

Many thanks for your attention! Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld