Foundations of the Field and The State of Nature What is sustainability? Assessing the trends Population, Consumption and Technology The Earth System and the World System

Limits to Growth & Its Critics Carrying capacity: a key ecological concept Neo-Malthusians Humans, like any species, must live in limits. Cornucopians Our ingenuity enables us to transcend limits. From limits to growth to sustainability “meeting the needs of present generation without compromising ability of future generations to meet their needs” (WCED) Can growth be sustainable? POL S 384 Lecture 1

Being a Person Be a person here. Stand by the river, invoke the owls Being a Person   Be a person here. Stand by the river, invoke the owls. Invoke winter, then spring. Let any season that wants to come here make its own call. After that sound goes away, wait.   A slow bubble rises through the earth and begins to include sky, stars, all space, even the outracing, expanding thought. Come back and hear the little sound again.   Suddenly this dream you are having matches  everyone's dream, and the result is the world. If a different call came there wouldn't be any world, or you, or the river, or the owl’s calling.   How you stand here is important. How you listen for the next things to happen.  How you breathe.   ~ William Stafford     Sustainability Beyond the Triple Bottom Line Ecological Economic Social Consciousness POL S 384 Lecture 1

Indicators of state of nature Population growth Food production Energy consumption Deforestation Species extinctions Desertification Fresh water shortage Ozone depletion Climate change POL S 384 Lecture 1

Planetary Boundaries

The State of Nature E = P x C x T (or I = PAT) Human population growth Agricultural revolution Industrial Revolution 1 billion in 1800; 7.3 billion now The “Population Bomb” Rule of 72 Malthusians vs. Cornucopians UN prediction: ~9 billion by 2050 A note on population density Into the fray: Demographic transition theory Is affluence the solution? POL S 384 Lecture 1

POL S 384 Lecture 1

Consumption How much do we need? Hunter-gatherers compared to Americans 2500 vs. 192,000 kcals. 40% of Earth's primary productivity supports humanity Have's & have-nots North compared to South Avg U.S. footprint  20 Indians or 50 sub-Saharan Africans Can affluence be globalized? Should it be? Do ethics matter? POL S 384 Lecture 1

Technology Energy ~ the master resource Fossil fuels: coal, oil, natural gas… Primacy of oil Environmental effects Atmospheric pollution Marine pollution Deforestation, destruction of local habitat Renewables: solar, wind, hydrogen Can technology save us? POL S 384 Lecture 1

The transition to sustainability The end of more? Necessary or optional? What would a sustainable economy look like? What social & political institutions would be required? Time line? Evidence? Obstacles POL S 384 Lecture 1

Sustainability on a global scale? ENVIR 100 Lec_2

Earth System: Spheres within the Sphere Where are the people?

Elements of the Noosphere Culture Institutions Technology Political & economic structures Multi-level Nation-state & international law Consciousness Subjective & intersubjective POL S 384 Lecture 1