CRC NARSTO-Northeast Modeling Study

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CRC NARSTO-Northeast Modeling Study Ralph E. Morris, Edward Tai, and Greg Yarwood ENVIRON International Corporation 101 Rowland Way Novato, California 94945 Models-3 User’s Workshop hosted by CMAS October 21-23, 2002 Research Triangle Park, North Carolina G:\crca24\CMAS_workshop\CMAS_CRC_NARSTO.ppt

Acknowledgements Coordinating Research Council (CRC) Atmospheric Impacts Committee (Brent Bailey, Coordinator) Work performed with Alpine Geophysics, STI, and PSU NARSTO acknowledged for data collection and analysis activities and comments MM5 data provided by Nelson Seaman at PSU NARSTO Data Analysis Study directed by Till Stoekenius at ENVIRON G:\crca24\CMAS_workshop\CMAS_CRC_NARSTO.ppt

Purpose Investigate sensitivity of photochemical grid models to inputs and options using the extensive July 1995 NARSTO-Northeast database: Photochemical Grid Model (CMAQ vs CAMx) Meteorological Model (MM5 vs RAMS) Level of FDDA in MM5 VOC and/or NOx Emission Reductions Grid Resolution (12-km vs 4-km) Chemical Mechanism (CB-IV vs SAPRC97) Advection Solver (Bott vs PPM vs Smolarkiewicz) G:\crca24\CMAS_workshop\CMAS_CRC_NARSTO.ppt

Overview of Approach Minimize any interpolation of met data LCP grid for MM5 met; PSP grid for RAMS met MM5 run with 3 levels of FDDA Analysis Nudging (AN) only AN and Observation Nudging (ON) AN, ON, and VAD nudging (FOBS) CMAQ and CAMx sensitivity runs 36-km, 12-km, and 4-km nests G:\crca24\CMAS_workshop\CMAS_CRC_NARSTO.ppt

G:\crca24\CMAS_workshop\CMAS_CRC_NARSTO.ppt

Emissions Processed by EMS95 G:\crca24\CMAS_workshop\CMAS_CRC_NARSTO.ppt

Difficulties Encountered/Lessons Learned Emissions: Numerous delays were encountered waiting for the latest emissions that were not substantially different from the draft values. CMAQ QSSA Chemistry Solver: QSSA chemistry solver is slow, inaccurate, and may go unstable so should not be used. MAQSIP Modeling System: STI had difficulties getting MAQSIP to work which was believed to be due to not using the MAQSIP version of MM5. Layer 1 Vertical Diffusivities: Both CMAQ (MCIP) and CAMx (MM5CAMx) modeling systems were updated during then study with a minimum layer 1 KV. G:\crca24\CMAS_workshop\CMAS_CRC_NARSTO.ppt

Ozone Hourly Time Series in NYC Subdomain CAMx/MM5, CAMx/RAMS, CMAQ/MM5 G:\crca24\CMAS_workshop\CMAS_CRC_NARSTO.ppt

Daily Maximum Ozone -- July 14, 1995 CAMx/MM5 CMAQ/MM5 CAMx/RAMS G:\crca24\CMAS_workshop\CMAS_CRC_NARSTO.ppt

Daily Maximum Ozone -- July 15, 1995 CAMx/MM5 CAMx/RAMS CMAQ/MM5 G:\crca24\CMAS_workshop\CMAS_CRC_NARSTO.ppt

12-km vs 4-km Grids-- CMAQ July 14, 1995 G:\crca24\CMAS_workshop\CMAS_CRC_NARSTO.ppt

12-km vs 4-km Grids -- CAMx July 14, 1995 G:\crca24\CMAS_workshop\CMAS_CRC_NARSTO.ppt

12-km vs 4-km Grids -- CMAQ July 15, 1995 G:\crca24\CMAS_workshop\CMAS_CRC_NARSTO.ppt

12-km vs 4-km -- CAMx July 15, 1995 G:\crca24\CMAS_workshop\CMAS_CRC_NARSTO.ppt

Comments on Grid Resolution Sensitivity July 12-14 CMAQ and CAMx 4-km ozone estimates more like each other than their 12-km parent 4-km ozone estimates generally lower than 12-km CMAQ 4-km ozone smoother due to KH inversely proportional to grid spacing July 15, 1995 very different response to 4-km grid: MM5 4-km grid explicitly resolves convective activity with downdrafts etc. Many other desirable features in MM5 4-km fields G:\crca24\CMAS_workshop\CMAS_CRC_NARSTO.ppt

MM5 12-km vs 4-km Wind Field 07/15/95 G:\crca24\CMAS_workshop\CMAS_CRC_NARSTO.ppt

Emission Reduction Sensitivity Tests Investigate sensitivity of ozone responses to 50% NOx and/or 50% VOC anthropogenic emission reductions: Photochemical model: CMAQ vs. CAMx Grid resolution: 12-km vs. 4-km (NOx only) Chemical mechanism: CB-IV vs SAPRC97 Advection Solver: Bott vs Smolarkiewicz Low-level vs Elevated NOx Design Value Scaling for Four NE Sites G:\crca24\CMAS_workshop\CMAS_CRC_NARSTO.ppt

50% Anthropogenic VOC Reduction G:\crca24\CMAS_workshop\CMAS_CRC_NARSTO.ppt

50% Anthropogenic NOx Reduction G:\crca24\CMAS_workshop\CMAS_CRC_NARSTO.ppt

Emission Reduction Sensitivity Conclusions NOx reductions result in wide-spread decreases in ozone except in urban cores where increases sometimes occur VOC reductions result in ozone reductions in urban cores but little change elsewhere CAMx/MM5 is more VOC sensitive than either CMAQ/MM5 or CAMx/RAMS SPARC97 chemistry is more VOC sensitive than CB-IV Use of a 4-km grid increases the NOx disbenefits in CAMx/MM5 but has less effects in CMAQ/MM5 G:\crca24\CMAS_workshop\CMAS_CRC_NARSTO.ppt

Overall Conclusions QSSA chemistry solver is slow and inaccurate and should not be used Smolarkiewicz advection solver is overly diffusive and should not be used CMAQ horizontal diffusion coefficient parameterization that is inversely proportional to grid resolution negates many of the benefits of high resolution grids Meteorological modeling of convective activity should be studied for air pollution modeling Ozone Design Value scaling can be very different using different models G:\crca24\CMAS_workshop\CMAS_CRC_NARSTO.ppt